Analyzing the Performance of Risk Assessment Instruments: A Response to Vrieze and Grove (2007)

In a recent article, Vrieze and Grove (Law Hum Behav, doi: 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x , 2007) argue that, because of low recidivism base rates and limited predictive accuracy, an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) may produce decisions about sex offenders that are worse than simply predicting that no one will commit another sex offense. This article examines: (1) the construction and potential overfitting of ARAIs; (2) the meaning, value, and limitations of ROC areas; and (3) the relationship between the operating point that maximizes an ARAI's correct classifications and the legal criterion-"likely to reoffend"-used for sex offender designations. Contrary to what Vrieze and Grove suggest, ARAIs of modest accuracy yield probabilistic information that is more relevant to legal decision-making than just "betting the base rate."     

农村土地所有权制度探讨

本文首先回顾了自建国以来农村集体土地所有权制度的发展历史 ,并详细分析了目前存在的诸多问题和弊端 ,然后提出了土地所有权制度改革的原则思路 ,最后认为 ,我国应构建农村集体土地的法人所有权制度。     

Effect of Choice of Measure on the Size of a Racial Disparity

In criminological studies of racial disparities the effect of race on outcomes is assessed after statistical controls for other variables. There is no universally accepted measure of size of disparity after controls in the most common type of disparity study: the study of binary outcomes. Some such studies use a measure that lends itself to interpretation in terms of the proportional reduction in error (PRE). Most use a non-PRE measure of association. This study investigates the effect of choice of measure on conclusions about the size of a disparity after controls. For illustrative purposes the study analyzes data on the awarding of sentence reductions to drug traffickers. After controls, blacks are found to be substantially less likely than whites to receive a reduction according to a type of non-PRE measure: an odds ratio derived from a logit model. But using the same data and model, PRE measures obtained from an ROC analysis indicate that, after controls, there is hardly any difference between the races in their likelihood of sentence reduction. Results illustrate the study's thesis: that the choice of measure can powerfully affect conclusions. The findings' implications—for policymakers and for researchers who conduct racial disparity studies—are discussed.     

徽州地区菊花的指纹图谱鉴别及其评价研究

目的 采用高效液相色谱法建立徽州地区菊花的指纹图谱,鉴别菊花不同品种类型,更好地评价徽州地区贡菊的质量。方法 采用Topsil HPLC C18色谱柱(4.6 mm×250 mm,5 μm),乙腈(A)-0.1%磷酸水(B)为流动相梯度洗脱,流速为1.0 mL/min,检测波长为325 nm,建立20批徽州地区菊花的指纹图谱,采用相似度评价、聚类分析及主成分分析方法对数据进行分析。结果 20批菊花样品之间相似度在0.703～0.989之间,不同品种菊花可分别聚为一类,主成分分析确定3个主成分,方差累积贡献率达82.401%。结论 本实验建立的指纹图谱精密度、稳定性、重复性良好,可为徽州地区菊花的内在质量控制与品质评价提供初步的研究基础。     

Analysis of sensitivity and specificity: precise recognition of neutrophils during regeneration of contused skeletal muscle in rats

In this report, we applied the TissueFAXS 200 digital pathological analysis system to rapidly and accurately identify neutrophils during regeneration of contused skeletal muscle, and to provide information for follow-up studies on neutrophils to estimate wound age. Rat injury model was established, and skeletal muscle samples were obtained from the control group and contusion groups at 1, 1.5, 2, 3, 4, and 6 h, as well as at 1, 3, 5, and 15 d post-injury (n = 5 per group). The expression of nuclei and neutrophils was detected by hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining and immunohistochemical (IHC) staining. A total of 20 injury site areas of 0.25 mm² (0.5 mm × 0.5 mm) were then randomly selected at all time points. A TissueFAXS 200 digital pathological analysis system was used to identify the positive and negative numbers. Knowledge of five professional medical workers were considered the gold standard to measure the false positive rate (FPR), false negative rate (FNR), sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. As a result, with a staining area of neutrophils from 8 µm² to 15 µm², the FPR was 4.28%–12.14%, the FNR was 12.42%–64.08%, the sensitivity was 35.92%–87.58%, the specificity was 87.86%–95.72%, the Youden index was 0.316–0.754, the accuracy was 82.80%–88.30%, and the AUC was 0.771–0.826. The AUC was largest when the cut-off value of the staining area was 12 µm². Our results show that this software-based method is more accurate than the human eye in evaluating neutrophil infiltration. Based on the sensitivity and specificity, neutrophils can be accurately identified during regeneration of contused skeletal muscle. The TissueFAXS 200 digital pathological analysis system can also be used to optimize conditions for different cell types under various injury conditions to determine the optimal cut-off value of the staining area and provide optimal conditions for further study. Furthermore, it will provide evidence for forensic pathology cases.     

构建现代环境治理体系中地方政府的创造性执行

坚持和完善生态文明制度体系,构建现代环境治理体系,需要地方政府的创造性执行,把生态文明的制度优势转化为生态环境保护和环境治理效能,切实改善环境质量,不断满足人民日益增长的优美生态环境需要,建设美丽中国。推动地方政府的创造性执行,要建立必要的制度保障,核心就是地方政府推动发展的强力激励与地方政府生态环境主导责任落实的制度能够相容,还需要构建合宜的运行机理,即执行要落地、规划要协同、执法要服务。     

论三峡库区移民弱势群体及其法律保护

随着三峡库区二期移民工程的结束和三、四期移民工程的有序开展 ,移民弱势群体及其问题日益凸现 ,基于社会公正和三峡库区可持续发展的价值理念 ,国家和社会应对移民弱势群体给予高度的关注和保护。文章在法律的视野内集中论述了移民弱势群体的界定及其构成 ,着力于分析保护移民弱势群体的法理依据 ,并以此寻求保护移民弱势群体的法律路径和措施。     

关于加强基层刑侦专业队伍建设的思考

加强基层刑侦专业队伍建设,是主动适应犯罪规律和特点的需要,是提高破案能力,实现刑侦工作全面提速的需要。其措施是:一要加强基层刑侦专业队伍思想政治建设;二要加强基层刑侦专业队伍的业务素质建设;三要加强基层刑侦专业队伍的专业化建设;四要加强基层刑侦专业队伍制度建设;五要建立完整的侦查工作责任体系。     

我国海域物权的法律分析

中华人民共和国物权法对海域物权的规定,标志着我国海域物权法律规定的进一步完善。文章从创设海域物权的法律根据、我国海域物权的性质以及海域物权的公示制度三个方面对我国海域物权的法律规定进行了探讨,并在此基础上对海域的界定和养殖海域使用权的问题提出了自己的分析和见解。     

贫困地区发展职业教育的几点思考

职业教育已成为我国教育体系的重要组成部分,是国民经济和社会发展的重要基础,是经济社会发展尤其是地方经济社会发展的主要力量。贫困地区如何发展职业教育,为经济发展服务,是值得认真思考的问题。