Geographic Opportunity and Neomalthusian Willingness: Boundaries,Shared Rivers,and Conflict

International conflict has been analyzed extensively through the framework of opportunity and willingness. Opportunity has mainly been operationalized as physical proximity. Willingness has been measured in a number of ways, and remains a somewhat more elusive concept. Several scholars have called for boundary length to represent opportunity. Heeding such calls, Harvey Starr has used GIS methods to generate boundary length for 1993 and has found it to be associated with increased propensity to conflict. A number of his measures of willingness were not. Using a new and much more extensive dataset on boundary length for the entire Correlates of War period, this article finds very different results. We study the relationship with shared rivers and water scarcity as measures of neomalthusian factors in willingness over a 110-year period. The results indicate that the neomalthusian factors are significant although not dramatic in their effects. Boundary length, while associated with conflict in a bivariate analysis, fades into insignificance when the neomalthusian willingness measures are introduced.     

Societal openness during the urban crisis. Partner selection in the 19th-century Belgian textile cities Ghent and Verviers

This paper examines the partner selection of the lower classes during an urban crisis period in early industrial Belgian cities. It was found that in this period characterized by an economic transition, overpopulation, migration and a low standard of living, social heterogamy was high, whereas social homogamy increased, or was ‘restored’, in the subsequent period. The urban crisis effect on partner selection contradicts the claims of modernization theory that there was a gradual increase in societal openness and that societal openness was typically modern, but it fits the idea of the informalization of marriage, a process marked by an increase in unmarried cohabitation and illegitimacy.     

Legislative Dissent without Reprisal? An Alternative View of Speaker Selection

Very little research has been devoted to examining the nature of Speaker selection in legislatures. This article attempts to provide a new perspective in which future research could examine the election of Speakers. A collective action perspective is put forward, which sees three groups of actors execute separate strategies to reach their own ends: the backbench, the executive and the opposition. These factors are tested on the Speaker selection exercises in the Ontario legislature. In the case study, it was found that the executive rarely gets their choice of Speaker, and three factors identified in the legislative dissent literature are utilised to examine these private acts of dissent: party popularity, cabinet size and the percentage of new legislators entering the party at each legislative term. It was found that the Speaker selection process involves three groups, each with their own preference order in decision-making.     

The Personalization(s) of Politics: Israel, 1949–2003

The relationship between the United States and Iran has had an important influence on world affairs during the past two decades. Accordingly, the U.S. news media have an instrumental role in portraying U.S.‐Iran relations to the public. The Iranian Revolution and hostage crisis of 1979–1981, the TWA hijacking of 1985, the Irangate controversy of 1986–1987, and the Persian Gulf War of 1990–1991 are examples of important media events that have impacted public opinion regarding U.S. policy toward Iran. This research analyzes government and print media portrayals of the Reagan administration's U.S.‐Iran policy during Irangate. Results supported the prediction that the print media would fulfill their “watchdog” function by providing more critical portrayals of the United States' policy toward Iran than the Tower Commission Report, an investigative document published by President Reagan's Special Review Board. Among the three leading newspapers analyzed, there was significant diversity in the reporting of U.S.‐Iran relations. Results indicate the Reagan administration's attempt to “spin” its version of Irangate did not successfully pressure the media to neglect their watchdog role. Although the Tower Commission Report was less critical of U.S. policy toward Iran than the print media, all four print media sources portrayed the Reagan administration's policy as a flawed approach that degenerated into trading arms for hostages. Implications of these findings for future research are discussed.     

The Rise of the Novice Cabinet Minister? The Career Trajectories of Cabinet Ministers in British Government from Attlee to Cameron

Some commentators have observed that today's Cabinet ministers are younger and less experienced than their predecessors. To test this claim, we analyse the data for Labour and Conservative appointments to Cabinet since 1945. Although we find some evidence of a decline in average age and prior experience, it is less pronounced than for the party leaders. We then examine the data for junior ministerial appointments, which reveals that there is no trend towards youth and inexperience present lower down the hierarchy. Taking these findings together, we propose that public profile is correlated with ‘noviceness’; that is, the more prominent the role, the younger and less experienced its incumbent is likely to be. If this is correct, then the claim that we are witnessing the rise of the novice Cabinet minister is more a consequence of the personalisation of politics than evidence of an emerging ‘cult of youth’.     

网络环境中公民参与的时代价值及路径选择

以互联网为核心的信息网络技术革命更加凸显了公民参与的时代价值,同时也给公民参与带来了许多困境。全面分析网络环境中公民参与的尴尬局面,寻求摆脱这些困境的路径选择,对于引导中国公民理性地进行参与活动,促进中国公民参与的有序化发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

One for me and one for you? The spillover effect of heads of lists on the presence and success of candidates of immigrant origin

As gatekeepers to elected office, party selectors are often held responsible for the political under-representation of social groups, including immigrant-origin citizens. This article investigates how the socio-demographic characteristics (immigrant background and gender) of heads of list affect the presence and success of immigrant-origin candidates. Heads of lists constitute a unique group, as they simultaneously act as selectors and role models for aspirants and voters. We rely on an original dataset based on the 2018 local elections in Flanders (Belgium) (N = 31,173 candidates on 1309 lists). To our knowledge, it is the first time such a big endeavour is undertaken. The results show that whereas having an immigrant-origin head of list has a positive effect on both the presence and success of other immigrant-origin candidates, having a female head of list does not. We find a spillover effect within one under-represented group, but not between under-represented groups.     

Nomination and list placement of ethnic minorities under open-list proportional rules: The centrality of ethnopolitical context

Do parties respond to ethnopolitical context when nominating and placing ethnic minority candidates in open-list proportional representation (PR) systems? Open-list PR is by nature candidate centered. Candidates need to attract preference votes to succeed. Political leaders, we argue, anticipate candidates' ability to generate support and the extent of anti-minority sentiment in districts when nominating and placing candidates. To test our arguments, we analyze data on 8945 candidates competing across 124 localities in Latvia's 2017 local elections. Few studies have explored open-list systems in countries like Latvia where preference voting routinely alters list order. Other studies stress the role that context plays in ethnic minority representation, but often lack data on crucial indicators. Our results show that parties nominated more minority candidates in localities with more ethnic minority voters and fewer in those with larger noncitizen populations. We did not, however, find that ethnopolitical context affected list placement.     

The Impact of Prejudice Screening Procedures on Racial Bias in the Courtroom

The current study examines the impact of the challenge for cause procedure and its effectiveness in curbing racial prejudice in trials involving Black defendants. Participants were provided with a trial summary of a defendant charged with either drug trafficking or embezzlement. The race of the defendant was either White or Black, with participants in the Black defendant condition receiving (prior to the trial presentation) either no challenge, a close-ended standard challenge, or a modified reflective pretrial questioning strategy. Overall, the results revealed an anti-Black bias in judgments. While the closed ended challenge did little to reduce this bias, the reflective format demonstrated a reduction in racial bias. Theoretical and applied implications of these findings are discussed.

Medical driver selection and alcohol

Due to the rapid development of motorisation in the past few decades, the epidemic of traffic injuries has become a serious problem. Numerous studies indicate that the human factor, often in connection with alcohol consumption, plays a major role in traffic accidents. Studies also show that people addicted to alcohol often drive under the influence and are not deterred by the possibility of punishment, e.g. a revocation of their driving licence.Our study examined people who caused traffic accidents under the influence of alcohol in Slovenia, the consequences of their actions, police and judicial measures and medical selection.In the last decade, the share of people causing traffic accidents under the influence of alcohol in Slovenia has been on the rise. Higher blood alcohol levels are found in people causing fatal traffic accidents, most of them are cyclists, pedestrians and tractor drivers, aged between 25 and 34; the accidents are most common on village roads, on weekends. The discrepancy between numbers of intoxicated drivers with suspended driving licences (approximately 8500/year) and between numbers of successfully terminated judicial procedures is particularly worrisome. When these drivers get their licences back, the medical selection process is inadequate.Our results emphasise the problem of medical selection for reinstatement of penalized drivers. The inadequate approach currently in force allows too many dangerous drivers, most still addicted to alcohol, to return to traffic without medical selection. The only solution to this problem is an immediate change in legislation that would require rigorous medical selection for all reinstatements of drivers who drove under the influence of alcohol. This would decrease the numbers of intoxicated drivers in traffic and at least partly decrease the numbers of alcohol addicts in society.