中国特色社会主义渐进式民主及其路径选择

中国特色社会主义渐进式民主是基于民主发展规律和我国历史国情的战略选择，其中执政党的领导、市场经济的发展和民主化浪潮的兴起是其蓬勃发展的主要推动力量，以党内民主带动人民民主，以基层民主推进上层民主，以选举民主补充协商民主是其稳步实现的重要路径。在党的十八大胜利召开的历史背景下，重新审视这一具有中国特色的民主发展道路，对于我们继往开来推进中国民主政治建设具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

检察机关群众工作的现实困惑与路径选择

检察机关群众工作是实现法律监督价值的内在要求、重要方法和有效途径。面对人民内部矛盾和治安腐败问题交织情况下群众工作艰巨性的增加，思想观念和利益需求多样化带来的群众工作复杂性的加大，检察机关要从查找执法理念和执法实践中存在的偏差入手，夯实思想基础，改进方式方法，提高工作素能，完善检察机关群众工作机制。     

Mediation as Signal

This paper analyzes mediation as a signal. Starting from a stylized case, a game theoretical model of one-sided incomplete information, taken from Cho and Kreps (1987), is applied to discuss strategic effects of mediation. It turns out that to reject mediation can be interpreted as a negative signal while the interpretation of accepting or proposing mediation is ambiguous and does not necessarily change the prior beliefs of the uninformed party. This asymmetry suggests that, in equilibrium, there is an excess of mediation.     

从治理组织选择理论的角度解读自愿连锁

作为连锁经营的三大组织形态之一的自愿连锁在我国的发展步伐正在加快,中小零售企业将自愿连锁作为应对实力强大的外资零售巨头和突飞猛进的本土大型连锁企业的主要途径。威廉姆森的组织形态选择理论对自愿连锁进行了深入分析,可为我国中小连锁企业发展自愿连锁提供思路与策略选择。     

What Drives the Selection of Political Information on Google? Tension Between Ideal Democracy and the Influence of Ranking

The emergence of the Internet has altered how individuals obtain information—this also applies to political information. Search engines have taken over the role of political information gatekeepers, thus becoming key players in democracy. However, surprisingly little is known about the role of search engines in the political information process, that is, whether they represent an opportunity or a threat to democracy. Through an online survey experiment, which mimicked a Google web interface, this study examines how Swiss citizens select political information on a political news event from a Google search results page. Although citizens consider textual cues from snippets, they are more likely to select sources of information from the top of a Google results page, regardless of the source. We discuss these findings from a democratic theory perspective.     

The direct PM election and the institutional presidentialisation of parliamentary systems

The direct PM election model features as an ‘empty cell’ in typologies of political regimes. A more fine grained analysis of the model shows that it depends on the choices made on three institutional parameters (object of the election, electoral system, legislative/executive relationship) whether it constitutes a distinct regime type. A comparison of nine examples confirms that the label of a direct PM election covers a wide array of institutional designs. A direct PM election may involve a full-fledged presidentialisation, but it may also imply a marginal adaptation of the parliamentary system. The model can only be considered as an intermediate regime type when it combines the exclusive electoral origin of the executive with a parliamentary legislative/executive relationship.     

When Killers Become Victims: Diversionary War,Human Rights,and Strategic Target Selection

The diversionary theory largely focuses on the incentives leaders have to use force. However, little attention has been given to the characteristics that make for a good target. We argue that US presidents choose targets that repress human rights since they are the easiest to sell to international and domestic audiences. By targeting repressive states US presidents can justify their use of force by cloaking their motivation in the language of human rights, responding to calls for intervention, pointing to the failure of international actors and institutions to resolve these problems, and building upon emerging norms that allow for intervention in repressive states. Updating US Use of Force data, we empirically test and find support for our hypothesis that presidents target human rights abusers when they face trouble at home. This paper contributes to target selection process by offering a complete theory of diversionary conflict accounting for cost/benefit calculation of presidents. Moreover, we believe that our findings reveal human rights practices’ role in international conflict, as well.     

Prime ministers and the electoral cost of using the confidence vote in legislative bargaining: evidence from France

Do prime ministers pay an electoral penalty for using procedural force to pass laws? Influential theories of parliamentary governance and legislative bargaining assume that the use of the confidence vote procedure – parliamentary governments’ most powerful legislative weapon – entails an electoral cost, but evidence on this important claim has been scarce. This article provides the first estimates of how prime ministers’ public approval responds to their use of the confidence vote. Analysing time series data from France 1979–2008, it is found that prime ministers experience a considerable drop in approval after their use of the confidence vote that is not accounted for by standard economic and political covariates. The effect size is similar to a 1 per cent decline in economic growth. The findings help explain French prime ministers’ selective use of the confidence vote procedure. They also suggest that political costs constrain the bargaining power conferred by the confidence vote.     

News Media Use and Political Engagement Among Adolescents: An Analysis of Virtuous Circles Using Panel Data

This study analyzes reinforcing spirals between news media use and two manifestations of political engagement: political interest and participation intention. Drawing on a three-wave panel study among adolescents, we test the Virtuous Circle Thesis (VCT) in both an online and an offline setting, by distinguishing between selection effects and media effects as key ingredients of the VCT. Overall, the findings lend mixed support to the general argument. While the relationship between specific forms of news media use and political interest appears to be driven primarily by selection effects, reciprocal relations were found mainly between television news and participation intention. The VCT assumption of reciprocal influences was supported most clearly when adolescents’ total news media use was considered. Taken together, virtuous circles appeared to operate rather similarly online and offline.     

目前我国宏观调控的目标、重点及其相关政策的选择

近年来我国经济发展的总体态势出现了一些新情况、新问题、政府宏观调控的目标、重点和相关政策也发生了很大变化。针对这种情况，本通过大量的实证分析，阐明了当前我国通货紧缩现象不会持续，结构性失业问题明显突出，经济增长速度必须适度；揭示了我国宏观调控的重点及其主要方面应该放在优化结构上，而不能一味追求扩大需求；系统阐述了与宏观调控目标和重点相配合的有关政策措施的主要内容。