Macro Research on Campaign Mobilization in the United States

ABSTRACT

This essay reviews the macro or aggregate-level academic literature on campaign mobilization and voter turnout in the United States. The conclusion that emerges from this literature is that hard-fought, high-stimulus electoral contests get out the vote. In part, the level of turnout on election day is a product of the efforts of strategic political actors (e.g., candidates, campaign contributors, and political parties) in the pursuit of elective office. The essay suggests that the academic literature on campaign mobilization would benefit from greater appreciation of how real world campaigns operate. A lesson that academics should draw from the practitioners is that strategic campaigns target and attempt to get out their voters. Careful consideration of the flows of information in campaigns would lead to a richer theory of mobilization. Looking at campaigns in a differentiated fashion, future research should recognize some fundamental points about their turnout implications: what campaigns do and whom they target may be more important than simply how much they do.     

Hunting the Elusive Young Voter

Abstract

It is generally assumed that mobilizing young voters is infeasible. This belief can be broken into two separate questions: (1) Are young people responsive to Get Out The Vote appeals? (2) Is it possible to deliver the message to the intended audience? By pooling together the results of six GOTV field experiments, this paper demonstrates that young voters are equally responsive to blandishments to vote as mature voters, but that they are roughly three times more difficult to contact.     

城市社区建设中的社区居民参与——基于山西省晋中市A小区的个案研究

随着改革的不断深入,基层管理模式由单位制向社区制转变。通过对晋中市A小区在公共资源改造过程中社区居民参与状况的分析,可知我国社区在建设中存在社区居民参与动力不足、参与面窄及参与层次低的问题。究其原因主要包括社区居民动员不足、利益价值趋向不同、认知水平有限、社区公共组织治理缺失等。为此,加强社区居民参与需积极培育社区精英团队、构建社区居民参与型文化、建立社区居民参与治理机制。     

提高北京市流通能力问题探讨

论述了流通能力对城市提升自身经济竞争能力的重要作用 ,同时分析了北京发展流通业的优势和面临的问题 ,为北京增强城市流通能力提出了设想     

The formative years of Azerbaijani nationalism in post-revolutionary Iran

This article covers the period from the Islamic Revolution to Khatami's landslide victory at the presidential elections in 1997 and analyses the processes leading to the formation of a national movement in Iranian Azerbaijan. It successively explores the role played by the Turkish intellectual entrepreneurs, former Leftists and disillusioned Islamists in politicizing Azerbaijani identity and shaping a nationalist movement. This process of aggregation of different social groups reveal what has now become one of the main symptoms of the profound crisis faced by the Islamic Republic.     

略论高技术局部战争中的国防科技动员

科技动员、科技支前是新形势下人民战争思想的继承和发展 ,是打赢高技术局部战争的重要法宝。高技术局部战争中的科技动员具有范围的广泛性、内容的高技术性、对象的专业性、途径的多样性和成果的有偿性等特点。加强国防科技动员建设 ,必须改革现行国防动员体制 ,完善国防科技动员机制 ,构建国防科技动员的法律保障体系 ,制定科学的国防科技动员预案 ,为参战支前做好充分的准备。     

Post-violence regime survival and expansion in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan

ABSTRACT

Kazakhstan’s and Tajikistan’s governments were able to successfully strengthen their reach and their capacity to control the population in the wake of deadly violence against regime opponents. Yet the process of deepening authoritarianism was not a straightforward affair. Both countries expanded their coercive capabilities – they upgraded policing in rural areas to improve intelligence gathering on the local population and predict the rise of any anti-government activities. While doing so, however, leaders of both countries sought to frame their actions as an inclusive process that was sensitive to the grievances of the affected populations and the general public. This article adds to the growing body of literature on authoritarian state responses to insurgency by showing how authoritarian regimes create narratives, engage civil society and look for political advantage to expand the coercive apparatus.     

Military Mobilization and Commitment Problems

Because of its costliness, military mobilization is generally seen as a mechanism by which high-resolve leaders can credibly signal their high resolve in international crises, thereby possibly overcoming informational asymmetries that can lead to costly and inefficient war. I examine how power-shifts caused by mobilization within a crisis can lead to commitment-problem wars. In a simple ultimatum-offer crisis bargaining model of complete information, war occurs if and only if the power-shift caused by mobilization exceeds the bargaining surplus, which is Powell's (2004 Powell, Robert. 2004. The Inefficient Use of Power. American Political Science Review, 98 May: 231–241. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2006 Powell, Robert. 2006. War as a Commitment Problem. International Organization, 60(1): 169–203. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) general inefficiency condition for commitment-problem wars. When private information is added, and hence mobilization potentially has a stabilizing signaling role, under certain conditions the commitment problem overwhelms the signaling role and mobilization leads to certain war. Finally, I analyze an infinite-horizon model that captures the reality that mobilizing takes time, and find that commitment-problem wars occur under broader conditions than the general inefficiency condition implies.     

War,democratization, and generational cohort effects on participation in Japan

Studies show that both democratization and war mobilization boost levels of participation enduringly among members of the generational cohort that come of age around the time. But little is known about the relative effects of war mobilization and democratization on long-term participation rates among impressionable generations that experience both. We address this question by examining generational cohort effects by gender, drawing on newly available data on the case of Japan. Age-period-cohort analyses of the Survey on Japanese Value Orientations (1973–2013) show that the increase in lifelong participation rates of the “war generation” over prewar generations was much greater for men than for women, thus suggesting that the high rates of participation among members of this cohort are driven more by mobilization than by democratization. This finding yields significant implications for the analysis of democratic consolidation in different parts of the world.     

以程序规范权力推动湖南省地方政府行政改革

通过实证研究分析湖南省行政程序政策制定路径与实施效果,发现其基本模式是政治动员,通过政治动员推动政策制定与政策实施;《湖南省行政程序规定》的作用是通过规范行政程序推动当地政府行政管理体制改革,是一种新的行政改革路径和改革模式。该政策的实施正向效果非常明显,值得肯定。通过政治动员模式制定和执行政策有许多优势,但也容易政随人走,如何使以程序规范权力的立法精神及推动行政管理体制改革的路径较少依赖脱离政治家而得以持续,需要进行更高层面的立法支持,进行地方人大立法甚至全国性立法十分必要。