Toward the Year 2000

To adapt and renew today's fraying international order, the West must partner more closely with democratic rising powers that remain ambivalent about existing international arrangements. There are four such ‘global swing states’: Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey. An effective engagement strategy will need to adjust the order's main pillars to enhance their appeal without transforming the fundamental character of the system in the process. It will need to influence what global swing states want through outreach to publics and private sectors. And it will need to make the case that all four can best manage China's rise by strengthening international rules of the road. If the West can enlarge the circle of countries that uphold the global order to include these rising democracies, the system that has long safeguarded international security and prosperity and promoted human rights will be able to endure.     

CBRN Incidents: Political Regimes,Perpetrators, and Targets

This article investigates the relationship between regime characteristics and the likelihood of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) terrorist incidents. Odds ratios establish that democratic ideals—democratic rule, strong rule of law, and honest regimes—are associated with more CBRN incidents. Failed states may be where some terrorist groups form or take refuge, but these states have not been the venue of choice for CBRN incidents. Religious (cults and fundamentalists) and nationalist/separatist groups are not more likely than others to engage in CBRN attacks. To date, indiscriminate CBRN attacks are as likely as discriminate attacks to cause casualties. Transnational terrorist groups are less adept than others in concealing their acquisition of CBRN substances. For some regressions, democratic rule and strong rule of law are positive determinants of CBRN incidents.     

Support for Strongman Rule in Ethnically Divided Societies: Evidence from Estonia and Latvia

Using data from Estonia and Latvia from 2004, this study maps and analyzes support for authoritarianism in ethnically divided societies. It develops and tests three explanatory models, focusing on socialization and the political and economic aspects of regime performance. Because the correlates of authoritarian support may vary by ethnic group, separate models are run for the ethnic majority and the minority. The results lend some support to all three theoretical approaches, although none of these can be considered to be a powerful explanation of support for authoritarianism. The determinants of support for strongman rule vary with ethnicity, suggesting that future studies on political support in multiethnic societies should systematically control for the effects of ethnicity.     

Recrafting the national imaginary and the new “vanguardism”

An opportunity exists to assess the limitations in building long-term peace in post-conflict states, particularly given the extent to which negotiated settlements incorporate demands for democratic mechanisms. By assessing how post-conflict governments construct new majorities through policy tools as well as assessing how they are constrained by the structural realities of negotiated settlements, we gain some purchase on the reasons why some post-conflict state projects succeed while others fail. This has potentially transformative implications for our understanding of how social contracts, and their attendant issues of consent, dissent, and legitimacy, operate in the modern world and the ways they impact such critical discussions as democratic transition, post-conflict reconciliation, and nation-building. We use the case of post-apartheid South Africa to analyse how post-conflict states are limited in terms of forging social contracts among citizens and between citizens and governments. Of specific interest is the way that post-conflict social contracting compels nation-builders to eschew the uncertainties of viable electoral democracy in favour of dominant party regimes or electoral authoritarianism. We suggest that this tension is less a result of pecuniary interest on the part of nation-builders and more a consequence of the imperfections of the modern social contracting process.     

The Use of Beheadings by Fundamentalist Islam

Beheadings have made a dramatic resurgence in the past four years especially with the introduction of videotaped executions broadcast in the mass media. The use of beheadings has a longstanding history. Beheadings have been used in a state and non-state capacity, for punishment or intimidation, against leaders, civilians and warring combatants, during times of peace and that of upheaval. Beheadings today reproduce the characteristics of past beheadings as well as deviate from them. Contemporary beheadings have taken on a more criminal nature while beheadings of the past had more legitimacy and some even were considered honorable. Current beheading tactics include unexpected and illegal targets, unorthodox and barbaric techniques, and irregular display to an unprepared public. Although Islamic militants are the predominant beheaders, there is evidence that beheadings are being conducted by non-Islamic entities and in unexpected locations. If the current trend in the use of beheadings continues, it will be necessary to develop countermeasures, which will be facilitated with an understanding of the political, cultural, and criminal motives of the beheading offenders along with their tactics.     

External dimensions of European environmental policy: An analysis of environmental treaty ratification by third states

The European Union has become an important leader in international environmental affairs – particularly through the negotiation of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) with favourable terms. In this article, EU environmental leadership is studied from a new perspective, focusing on the ratification stage of environmental regime formation. Specifically, it investigates whether the EU is also capable of motivating third states to join its preferred MEAs. It is argued that third states join the EU's preferred MEAs to signal their compliance with EU environmental standards in an effort to become eligible for various rewards that the EU could potentially offer, including a credible membership perspective, access to its lucrative markets, and aid and assistance. The argument is tested by examining the ratification behaviour of 25 non‐EU Member States with regard to all 21 MEAs negotiated under the auspices of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). The results provide robust support for the theory that EU rewards motivate third states to ratify these treaties. The results withstand a number of statistical tests, even when alternative explanatory factors such as trade intensities, transnational communication and geographic proximity are controlled for. The study is the first large‐scale demonstration of the EU's external influence at the ratification stage of environmental regime formation. By identifying three different channels of EU influence, the research permits a more refined understanding of the EU's role as a promoter of environmental protection standards.     

Global norms in domestic politics: environmental norm contestation in Cambodia's hydropower sector

Policymakers in many developing Asian countries have commonly relied on investment incentives as a major policy instrument to attract foreign investment. Using comparative case studies of Asian transnational corporations (TNCs) in Southeast Asia, this paper argues that investment incentives per se are ineffective in attracting foreign investment. The paper first examines the role of government incentives in the inflow of foreign investment, with particular reference to the Southeast Asian region. It then provides a comparative study of Hong Kong and Taiwanese investments. Hong Kong TNCs are shown to have invested in Southeast Asia because of market or market‐related reasons, not investment incentives per se. To these firms from Hong Kong, investment incentives are more a kind of post hoc rationalization of their decision making. For the Taiwanese investors in Malaysia, government incentives are less important than the existence of market access and the friendly host country environment. The paper also suggests some implications and specific policy recommendations for policymakers in host country governments. Instead of over‐reliance on investment incentives, host country governments should be more concerned with: 1) a commitment to internationalization through the promotion and marketing of international images; 2) the upgrading of domestic resources through continuous training and development; 3) a more efficient allocation of resources; 4) supra‐national coordination and promotion.     

Statebuilding and Force: The Proper Role of Foreign Militaries

Abstract

Recent military interventions, both peace operations authorized by the United Nations and actions by individual countries, have aimed at helping build new or reconstituted states. The legitimacy and success of these state-building interventions are often contested by local actors. Yet state-like structures are needed to ensure the rule of law and economic growth. This paper argues for a new approach: to direct the use of foreign force toward roles that helped states emerge as the most successful governance structures in historical Europe, by defending populations from outside attack, protecting them from banditry and violence, and enforcing predictable rules for commerce and civil life (while training local forces to assume these duties). This approach focuses attention on the practical need to prepare military forces for both traditional defence and police-like roles.     

Instrumental political support: bringing policy preferences back into explanations of EU support

There is a joint development towards Europeanisation of public policies and an increasing visibility and politicisation of European issues in EU member states. In this context, the degree of fit between individuals’ policy preferences and European norms could be expected to influence support for the EU: this support might increase when Europeanisation makes the desired policies more likely, and decrease when it hinders these policies. Multilevel analyses of the 2014 wave of the European Election Study confirms the existence of such instrumental support for the EU. The findings demonstrate that this support is shaped by policy preferences on state intervention, immigration, moral issues and environmental protection. The results also show that the impact of these policy preferences is modulated by the level of integration of the designated policy, by the weight of the policy issue in the country and, in some cases, by the level of individual political knowledge.     

Debt administration in Small Island‐States

Public debt management is an infrequent focus of public administration studies. Yet without appropriate debt management, administrators have few financial resources for public service provision. Island‐state administrators face an enhanced service provision challenge. The peculiarity of island‐state economies, the unpredictability of exogenous events and the state's endogenous choices increase debt administration's importance. Via its focus on debt management office location and the administrative constraints posed by brain drain, transparency and regionalization, this paper goes beyond typical debt management studies to engage debt administration spaces. The result is a framework for studies of debt administration in Small Island‐States.