游客形象对中国公共外交的影响分析

中国已经成为世界第一旅游消费大国,庞大的出国人群原本可以成为公共外交的使者和国家形象的代言人,遗憾的是,此起彼伏的中国游客不文明行为,不仅引起目的地居民的反感,而且降低了中国政府公共外交的可信度,使国家形象受损。在全民外交时代,应加强对游客形象问题的研究,探究其对公共外交的影响程度,充分发挥个体在公共外交中的积极作用。     

DELINQUENCY BALANCE: REVISITING PEER INFLUENCE*

An impressive number of inquiries across an array of methodological specifications has demonstrated that deviant peers are an important correlate of various criminological outcomes, which include within‐ individual change and stability in offending behavior. Still, the causal mechanisms of peer influence arguably remain underdeveloped (Giordano, 2003; Warr, 2002). In an attempt to expand the dialogue on the nature of peer influence, this inquiry proposes that scholars would benefit from considering relative peer deviance in addition to exposure to deviant peers. Specifically, it argues that an imbalance in delinquency between friends helps to explain delinquency change/stability; therefore, exposure to deviant peers is not always risky and exposure to less deviant peers is not always protective. The analysis uses the Add Health data to construct within‐individual and across‐individual (delinquency) difference scores and relies on self‐reports rather than on perceptions for the best friends' delinquency. The results provide support for the premise that adolescents attempt to achieve delinquency “balance” with their best friend by changing behavior, net of raw peer deviance levels (i.e., objective exposure). The findings also suggest that balance is not achieved through selection, given that the deviance gap between the respondent and his or her best friend does not predict friendship stability. The discussion considers these results from a theoretical and empirical perspective and offers several avenues for future research.     

Unintended consequences: experimental evidence for the criminogenic effect of prison security level placement on post-release recidivism

Most prison systems use quantitative instruments to classify and assign inmates to prison security levels commensurate to their level of risk. Bench and Allen (The Prison Journal 83(4):367-382, 2003) offer evidence that the assignment to higher security prisons produces elevated levels of misconduct independent of the individual’s propensity to commit misconduct. Chen and Shapiro (American Law and Economics Review, 2007) demonstrate that assignment to higher security level among inmates with the same classification scores increases post-release recidivism. Underlying both of these claims is the idea that the prison social environment is criminogenic. In this paper we examine the theoretical premises for this claim and present data from the only experiment that has been conducted that randomly assigns inmates to prison security levels and evaluates both prison misconduct and post-release recidivism. The experiment’s results show that inmates with a level III security classification who were randomly assigned to a security level III prison in the California prison system had a hazard rate of returning to prison that was 31% higher than that of their randomly selected counterparts who were assigned to a level I prison. Thus, the offenders’ classification assignments at admission determined their likelihood of returning to prison. There were no differences in the institutional serious misconduct rates of these same prisoners. These results are contradictory to a specific deterrence prediction and more consistent with peer influence and environmental strain theories. These results also raise important policy implications that challenge the way correctional administrators will have to think about the costs and benefits of separating inmates into homogeneous pools based on classification scores.

美日安全合作:从地区走向全球

美日同盟是美国维持亚太秩序的重要基石,也是日本外交政策的基轴,随着中国的崛起,美日双方已然意识到原有的同盟框架难以应对来自中国的挑战。为此,美日通过制订新的《美日防卫合作指针》,强化美日同盟,加强双方在全球范围内的安全合作。然而,美日安全合作同时也面临着质疑与否定,在美日两国内,长期以来一直存在着对美日同盟的争论。未来美日安全合作将如何发展,不仅取决于日本的安全感知,更取决于美国在国内国际新形势下将会采取的战略。由于美国新任总统特朗普一以贯之的对日负面认知,使得日本政府和国民对于特朗普的对日政策不抱期待。然而,特朗普上台后并不会撤走驻日美军,更不会让美日同盟解体,同时,商人出身的特朗普并不反对自由贸易,其反对的是无法贯彻其意志的自由贸易。因此,在特朗普总统任期中,其特有的个性和自信,将会使未来美国的对日政策打上"特式"烙印,这为美日关系的发展增加了许多不确定因素,美日同盟可能面临新的危机。     

女性人才参政现状与问题改进探讨——基于人力资源开发学的思考

女性参政是提高妇女地位的一个重要方面,也是女性人才开发的重要途径,更是衡量一个国家社会发展和文明进步的重要标志之一。我国女性参政的发展已取得了一定的成绩,但女性参政、女性人才开发仍受到性别、政策歧视、自身意识等因素的影响。社会需要充分认识女性参政的重要性,优化女性参政的社会环境;女性自身需要强化自主意识,增强参政的信心;家庭要对女性参政给予支持;国家需要在政策上为女性参政提供保障,加大女性教育和培训力度,健全女性领导干部培养选拔体系。     

煤矿一线员工过度劳动评价与影响因素 —— 基于四个省份十二个煤矿调查数据的分析

基于四个省份十二个煤矿一线员工的问卷调查数据,采用相关性分析和多元回归分析的方法, 从个人、家庭、企业、工作四方面,探究了我国煤矿一线员工过度劳动影响因素。研究发现：经济利益、自我发展、 家庭责任、不和谐的家庭关系、考核标准、薪酬制度、企业文化、工作量、工作要求、工作环境对煤矿一线员工 过度劳动的产生具有显著的正向影响,家庭支持对煤矿一线员工过度劳动的产生具有显著的负向影响。不同年龄、 不同工龄、不同收入的员工,过度劳动程度存在显著差异。年龄越大、工龄越长、收入越高的员工过劳程度更高。 总体上看,煤矿一线员工普遍存在过度劳动且较为严重。     

“独立工人”视角下共享经济就业特征及其影响机制

共享经济中形成了"平台+履约人"的新就业模式,催生了一个全新的就业群体——"独立工人"。"独立工人"与平台之间没有传统意义上的劳动关系,仅根据平台要求向客户提供劳务或服务。研究显示:我国共享经济从业人员以"独立工人"为主,吸纳的劳动力主要是受教育程度较低、技术等级较低、外地农业户籍的青壮年男性。在共享经济中有四至五成的从业人员属于专职"独立工人"。研究发现:选择从事兼职独立工作的群体有长期从业的倾向,而选择从事专职独立工作的群体则不希望继续从事独立工作。为进一步规范共享经济发展、保护"独立工人"的合法权益,可以从重新审视"独立工人"的法律身份入手,探索建立适合"独立工人"的"可携式福利"体系,尝试总结具有权威性的共享经济劳动标准,以推动该领域的劳动立法。     

入世对私营企业发展的影响与对策

入世对我国私营企业的发展利多弊少,分析总结一下,利有三个方面,弊有两个方面。如何抓住机遇应对挑战,本文提出五个对策。     

网络发展对国家安全的影响

网络时代的国家安全表现出新的特点,网络恐怖主义、网络犯罪和网络病毒、网络信息战、网络信息霸权构成了国家安全在政治、经济、军事和文化领域的新威胁.为了应对新的挑战和威胁,就必须采取对策,构建信息网络时代的国家安全屏障.     

论现场环境对警察执法战斗力的影响

现场环境是警察进行执法战斗的依托和舞台,也是战术运用的客观依据,是影响警察执法战斗活动的重要因素。在警察执法战斗中,现场环境对警察战斗力有着重要的影响,一是对警察战斗力构成的影响:即对参战人员的影响、对武器装备的影响、对人与武器结合的影响;二是对警察战斗力使用的影响:即对战法选择的影响、对战场情报信息的影响。