Continuity in crime: Sex and age differences

This study deals primarily with the question of continuity in serious criminality. The study follows a cohort consisting of 15,117 individuals from the age of 15 years through the age of 30 years. The age-based transition probabilities are studied, both for males and for females, showing that the transitions for females conform to a first-order Markov chain, so that the original matrices can be seen as estimates from a single parent matrix. This was not the case for males. The predictive power of prior criminality for later transition probabilities is also studied. Finally, the difference between stating that a given percentage will relapse in crime and the ability to make real prediction is emphasized.     

浅议庭审直播

庭审直播作为一种司法公开化的特殊的审判方式,在各地已经频频出现,但在法学界存在争议。庭审直播是司法公开化的一项重要举措。在中国特定国情和当前的民主法治进程中,有选择、有限制地庭审直播,具有可行性和积极意义。当然,对其弊端则要采取措施,加以克服。     

关于社会犯罪统计理论与时间序列分析的研究

文章基于社会犯罪发生的基本特征,从信息科学研究的角度讨论了社会犯罪统计的意义和特点,提出了在犯罪统计理论研究中应采用的理论和方法。同时,讨论了犯罪时间序列分析的意义和方法,最后提出了在这一领域的研究方向。     

Diffusion in Homicide: Exploring a General Method for Detecting Spatial Diffusion Processes

This article proposes a new method for examining dynamic changes in thespatial distribution of a phenomenon. Recently introduced exploratoryspatial data analysis (ESDA) techniques provide social scientists with anew set of tools for distinguishing between random and nonrandom spatialpatterns of events (Anselin, 1998). Existing ESDA measures, however, arestatic and do not permit comparisons of distributions of events in the samespace but across different time periods. One ESDA method—the Moranscatterplot—has special heuristic value because it visually displayslocal spatial relationships between each spatial unit and its neighbors. Weextend this static cross-sectional view of the spatial distribution ofevents to consider dynamic features of changes over time in spatialdependencies. The method distinguishes between contagious diffusion betweenadjoining units and hierarchical diffusion that spreads broadly throughcommonly shared influences. We apply the method to homicide data, lookingfor evidence of spatial diffusion of youth-gang homicides acrossneighborhoods in a city. Contagious diffusion between neighboring censustracts is evident only during the year of peak growth in total homicides,when high local rates of youth-gang homicides are followed by significantincreases in neighboring youth- nongang rates. This pattern is consistentwith a spread of homicides from gang youth to nongang youth. Otherwise, theincreases in both youth-gang and youth- nongang homicides generally occursimultaneously in nonneighboring tracts.     

Legal Reasoning and Legal Theory Revisited

This article deals with the relation between a theory of law and a theory of legal reasoning. Starting from a close reading of Chapter VII of H. L. A. Hart's The Concept of Law, it claims that a theory of law like Hart's requires a particular theory of legal reasoning, or at least a theory of legal reasoning with some particular characteristics. It then goes on to say that any theory of legal reasoning that satisfies those requirements is highly implausible, and tries to show that this is the reason why not only Hart, but also writers like Neil MacCormick and Joseph Raz have failed to offer a theory of legal reasoning that is compatible with legal positivism as a theory of law. They have faced a choice between an explanation of legal reasoning that is incompatible with the core of legal positivism or else strangely sceptical, insofar as it severs the link between general rules and particular decisions that purport to apply them.     

Growth curves of deviant behavior in early adolescence: A multilevel analysis

Multilevel growth curve models provide a means of analyzing individual differences in the growth of deviance, allow a number of theories to be integrated in a single model, and can help to unify research on deviant/delinquent/criminal careers at different stages of the life cycle. Building on the distinction between population heterogeneity and state dependence as alternative explanations of persistent individual differences in deviance (Heckman, 1981; Nagin and Paternoster, 1991), we show that models with two levels can be used to represent and analyze a variety of criminological theories. The first level (level 1) uses repeated measurements on individuals to estimate individual-level growth curves. The second level treats the level 1 growth curve parameters (e.g., slope, intercept) as outcome variables and uses time-invariant factors to explain variation in these parameters across individuals. We illustrate this approach by estimating a model of growth in deviance drawn from Gottfredson and Hirschi's deviant propensity theory. An innovative feature is the assumption that adolescents' expected growth curves of deviance follow a classical Pearl-Verhulst logistic growth model (Pearl, 1930). The results suggest that five risk factors—parental psychiatric problems, lack of parental support, living arrangements with zero or one parent in residence, low family income, and male gender—have strongly positive effects on deviant propensity. For example, adolescents with no supportive parents, and no other risk factors, have expected asymptotic levels of deviance (peak levels attained at about age 18) that are about twice as high as those of adolescents with no risk factors. Yet more than two-thirds of the individual-level variability in growth curves is unexplained by the five risk factors. This unobserved heterogeneity would remain hidden in analyses using conventional structural equations models and the same explanatory variables.     

Microgeographic variation of Y-chromosome haplotypes in Italy

Within an Italian collaborative exercise on the extended haplotype of the Y-chromosome, 1288 subjects were typed by the AmpFlSTR YFiler Amplification Kit (AB Applied Biosystems) and other 526 were typed by the PowerPlex Y^® System (Promega). The sampling scheme included either a “regional” or a “local” recruitment, the first referring to individuals born in the region of the participating lab, the second referring to individuals coming from small villages. Total sample sizes were N = 954 and 860, respectively. A significant decrease of haplotype diversity was found in the local samples. The results may be of interest in forensic applications of the Y-chromosome.     

Privacy and personal data protection in China: An update for the year end 2009

This paper explores developments in privacy and data protection regulation in China. It argues that, since China is an emerging global economic power, the combination of domestic social economic development, international trade and economic exchange will encourage China to observe international standards of privacy and personal data protection in its future regulatory response.     

试论服务理念视角下的政府电子税务

电子税务是各级政府推行电子政务的一种体现,其宗旨是利用信息技术提高税收征管水平,降低征纳税成本,改善税收环境,为纳税人和社会各界提供优质的税收服务。它的实现方式是利用一切现有信息技术,打造全方位的一体化电子服务平台,不断提升服务质量和水平。从本质上,电子税务彰显了现代政府管理中的服务理念。本文从服务理念的角度就政府实施电子税务如何为纳税人服务、为税收管理服务、为基层服务、为机关服务、为领导决策服务等提出对策和建议。     

Exploring the social organisation and structure of stolen data markets

As consumers are increasingly using the Internet to manage their finances, there has been a concomitant increase in the risk of theft and fraud by cybercriminals. Hackers who acquire sensitive consumer data utilise information on their own, or sell the information in online forums for a significant profit. Few have considered the organisational composition of the participants engaged in the sale of stolen data, including the presence of managerial oversight, division of labour, coordination of roles and purposive associations between buyers, sellers and forum operators. Thus, this qualitative study will apply Best and Luckenbill's framework of social organisation to a sample of threads from publicly accessible web forums where individuals buy and sell stolen financial information. The implications of this study for criminologists, law enforcement, the intelligence community and information security researchers will be discussed in depth.