The "Essential Domino" of Military Operations: American Public Opinion and the Use of Force

It is a commonly held belief that the foreign policy issue to which the American public is most sensitive is the use of military force. Because American public opinion regarding the use of force is highly palpable, salient, and organized, and because decisions regarding the use of force are some of the most important decisions the nation ever has to consider, the analysis of public opinion regarding military involvement is academically significant and policy relevant. The indication from policymakers is that American military operations require public support. As a result, scholars and analysts have come to realize that public opinion is the "essential domino" of military operations. The relationship between mass American public opinion and the use of military force has become, therefore, the focus of numerous studies and surveys. There are currently several competing explanations—schools of thought—in the literature on why the mass public supports the use of force. This article is an attempt to identify the most prominent schools of thought on public opinion and the use of force, and the central factors associated with each school. Such a review is important to generating policy–relevant guidance pertaining to public opinion and the use of force—an objective made more pressing by the current war against terrorism.     

群体性突发事件网络舆情的特点及演变规律研究

随着网络的发展,现实中的群体性突发事件极容易变成网络舆情,对应对群体性突发事件带来了严峻的挑战。要增强新形势下应对群体性突发事件的能力,必须探明群体性突发事件网络舆情的演变规律。群体性突发事件网络舆情的演变包括生成、爆发、稳定、终结四个阶段。在这个演变过程中,群体性突发事件网络舆情都处于动态变化中。     

Voter polarisation and party responsiveness: Why parties emphasise divided issues,but remain silent on unified issues

How does voter polarisation affect party responsiveness? Previous research has shown that political parties emphasise political issues that are important to their voters. However, it is posited in this article that political parties are not equally responsive to citizen demands across all issue areas. The hypothesis is that party responsiveness varies considerably with the preference configuration of the electorate. More specifically, it is argued that party responsiveness increases with the polarisation of issues among voters. To test these theoretical expectations, party responsiveness is analysed across nine West European countries from 1982 until 2013. Data on voter attention and voter preferences with regard to specific policy issues from a variety of national election studies is combined with Comparative Manifestos Project data on parties' emphasis of these issues in their election manifestos. The findings have major implications for understanding party competition and political representation in Europe.     

医疗损害鉴定意见存在问题与对策

鉴定意见作为专门性问题的鉴定结果,是诉讼案件得以正确处理的重要依据,其对诉讼结果的影响不言自明。鉴定意见不仅关乎证据制度,也涉及司法体系和诉讼程序。医疗领域的诉讼因裁判者囿于知识的局限,鉴定意见的作用更为突出。长期以来,鉴定问题已严重影响到司法裁判的效率与公正。本文通过梳理鉴定意见在医疗损害诉讼各环节中存在的问题,剖析鉴定方式、鉴定主体、文书内容以及审查采信方面等问题的成因,提出确立以自然人为中心的“鉴定人——专家辅助人”的“双翼”医疗损害鉴定人制度,规范鉴定意见内容和表述方式,完善质证程序等措施。     

互联网应用对网络舆情影响力指标体系构建

近些年来,依托各类互联网应用所构建起的网络信息传播体系的网络舆情影响力越发增强,易于引起社会的强烈反应。基于互联网应用的热点信息传播属性,通过构建互联网应用对网络舆情影响力的评价指标体系,可以来衡量和评价互联网应用对网络舆情的影响程度,从而为政府部门实现高效监测、控制、引导网络舆情提供新的思路和方法。     

Till Immigration do us Part? Public Opinion and the Dilemma between Immigration Control and Bilateral Agreements

As a result of the initiative against mass immigration (MEI) Switzerland faces a dilemma between control of immigration and the continuation of bilateral agreements. This contribution raises two questions: First, have Swiss citizens' perceptions regarding the incompatibility between immigration control and bilateral agreements evolved since the vote on the MEI in February 2014? Second, what would Swiss citizens decide if they had to choose between the implementation of the MEI and the continuation of the bilateral strategy? We ground our analysis on data from the VOX surveys regarding the MEI and the more recent vote of November 2014 (Ecopop initiative). While Swiss voters still seem to be uncertain about the issue of compatibility, they nevertheless show support for the continuation of the bilateral agreements. Our analyses highlight the importance of age, trust in government and left‐right orientation for individual opinions towards the bilateral way.     

网络舆情视域下政府公信力建构

现阶段的网络舆情在公共管理领域尤其是在政府形象塑造方面发挥着巨大的影响力,从而影响着政府公信力。政府应转变行政思维和理念,规范信息公开制度,实行行政问责制,建设责任政府,正确对待网络监督,完善监督体系,使网络舆情能为提高政府公信力服务。     

大数据时代高校网络舆情应对策略的重新定位

大数据时代,网络舆情应对能力成为衡量高校管理水平的重要评价指标,但是高校网络舆情应对策略的研究对于事前应对分析仍然存在不足。高校网络舆情应对策略的重新定位,不仅需要转变思想观念如重视批评与自我批评、正确看待应急预案、正确看待网络舆情、相信并且重视科学;而且需要加强能力建设如重视顶层设计、具备大局观念、利用大数据挖掘技术、加强沟通与合作、挖掘本质根源。     

美国公众舆论与战争--以朝鲜战争、越南战争和伊拉克战争为例

本文以朝鲜战争、越南战争和伊拉克战争为例说明美国是最喜欢用武力处理国际关系的国家。战争的伤亡会影响美国的民意,反战的民意进而会影响政策的实施,甚至影响总统竞选连任,但不会制止战争。     

国际社会中舆论的特征及其对国际关系的影响

随着全球化进程的深入和现代科学技术的发展,信息传播速度日益加快,很容易在极短的时间内形成强大的舆论力量。正确分析国际关系中的舆论因素,探讨其特点、作用,对于制定外交政策,处理国家间关系具有重要意义。