Testing the power of arguments in referendums: A Bradley–Terry approach

How can we determine which arguments in a referendum are most persuasive? We show that the Bradley–Terry model has several features that make it well-suited to this task, and thus preferable to other, more conventional approaches. Using a survey experiment conducted during an electoral reform referendum in Ontario, Canada in October 2007, we demonstrate how unstructured and structured Bradley–Terry models can be straightforwardly fitted and interpreted. In doing so, we gain insight into the factors which determine support for electoral reform. We identify a status quo bias and find that power varies with mention of fairness, local control over candidate selection, and the role of political parties. We conclude by discussing the limits, extensions and further applications of such models in electoral studies and political science more broadly.     

创新社会管理背景下涉警网络舆情危机处置探析

现阶段,我国正处于改革的攻坚期、发展的黄金期和社会矛盾的凸现期,涉警网络舆情危机时有发生。涉警网络舆情危机具有突发性、传播性、破坏性和交互性等显著特点。因此,公安机关应及时掌握涉警网络舆情动态,运用"公安网络舆情引导管理系统",完善涉警网络舆情预警研判和应急处置机制,掌握网络舆论引导主动权。     

The file on operation “Priboi”: A re-assessment of the mass deportations of 1949

Abstract

Using information from documents found in the Russian State Military Archives, this article discusses the organization and execution of the Soviet mass deportations from the Baltic States in March 1949 — code-named Operation “Priboi” by the USSR MVD. These findings are presented for the first time in English, in the context both of established historiographical interpretations and recent literature on the deportations. The aim is to encourage a scholarly reassessment of Operation “Priboi” as a crime against humanity perpetrated by the Soviet occupation regime, but supported by indigenous collaborators to a far greater degree than previously assumed.     

司法鉴定意见纠错机制及制度探讨——以面向社会服务的鉴定机构和鉴定人为视野

司法鉴定意见是鉴定人进行科技实践的产物,因而出现错误鉴定意见是不可能完全避免的。在法定的重新鉴定之外,由原司法鉴定人在程序规定的范围内通过＂复核鉴定＂自我纠正司法鉴定意见的错误不失为一种有效的对策。基于此,以面向社会服务的司法鉴定机构和鉴定人为研究的视野,以复核鉴定为基本形式,探讨司法鉴定意见纠错的机制并创设相应的制度,将有利于诉讼和司法鉴定。     

社会舆情与刑法运作互动问题研究

随着信息传播的便利,社会舆情可以对刑事裁判的整个过程产生影响。在社会舆情和刑事司法发生冲突的案件中,社会舆情"屡战屡胜",表面上看好似是"公意的胜利",而实质上依然是"正义的胜利"。因为被推翻的刑事判决本身,在法律依据、诉讼程序、定案证据等方面存在各种各样的瑕疵或错误。为了实现刑事司法的公众认同,维护刑事司法的权威性,刑事司法应当做到三点:坚守刑事司法的正当性;加强判决书说理;增强对社会公意的理解。     

我国网络舆情及网络舆情危机理论研究综述

就我国有关网络舆情内涵及特点,网络舆情危机产生、发展、演变规律,网络舆情及网络舆情危机监测、研判、引导、应对对策,网络政治及网络民主相关理论研究的重要观点,进行了归纳与分析,旨在为进一步探索网络舆情规律,正确引导网络舆情发展,合理应对网络舆情危机提供理论参考。     

群体性事件中的舆论引导与控制——“英国骚乱”的启示

实践中很多群体性事件处置不力,其关键因素之一就是没有正确认识群体性事件中社会舆论的功能、特点,没有妥善引导和掌控舆论走向,以致加大了处置难度。英国政府在处置2011年8月伦敦骚乱中的成功经验警示我们要转变理念,加强与媒体沟通,主动设置议题,引导和控制社会舆论,从而营造良好舆论氛围,促进群体性事件的妥善解决。     

Getting Rich Before Getting Old or Vice Versa？

正REGARDING China’s economic and social outlook,there are two contending views in the domestic and overseas academic world.One predicts that China will get affluent before becoming an aging society,and the other holds the opposite opinion.A comprehensive and dynamic analysis is needed before reaching a conclusion.Complex Factors in Economic Growth Total Factor Productivity(TFP)is the most accepted measurement through which to judge total inputs’output productivity,that is,the ratio of total output to total inputs.TFP includes technological progress,organizational innovation,professionalism,etc.An increase of this index refl ects the progress of science and technology.High     

1874年日本侵台消息的传播及其影响论析

学界对1874年日本侵台消息的传播尚乏系统研究,特别是较少关注到日本侵台消息的早期传播。国际上有关日本侵台的风声由来已久,日本侵台的舆论前奏最早可追溯至1872年,尤以1873年最突出,该年有关日本侵台的消息此起彼伏。不过,此时相关消息的传播尽管在某些方面引起了清政府的注意,但对其内容清廷决策层并不十分相信。而1874年日本侵台部署之曝光,则首先引来了西方外交使团的集体干涉。消息传到中国,也随即引起清政府的警觉,相关报道被视作重要的信息线索和外交证据。清廷各级官员也进行了形式多样的探查活动,他们的频频造访,甚至一度令日本外交人员颇为忐忑。     

What role does gender have in shaping knowledge that underpins the practice of midwifery?

Midwifery is an ancient profession that continues to be practiced almost exclusively by women. This paper explores the role that millennia of gender exclusivity has had in shaping the knowledge that informs the profession. Prior to the Renaissance this knowledge was exclusively female, largely oral, tacit and intuitive whilst recognising childbearing as an important transformative period in a woman’s lifecycle. Male scientific enquiry in the seventeenth century into human anatomy extended to women’s bodies and childbirth and disrupted the female ways of knowing. Their positivist ontology focussing on the mechanics of childbirth created an opportunity for intervening in a normal process and receiving payment for it. The perceived structural superiority of a male obstetric ontology of childbirth has posed an existential threat to the midwifery profession. This paper concludes by discussing how 20^th century professional regulation of midwifery has encouraged midwives to use patriarchal structures and frameworks of knowledge to co-exist within the hegemonic biomedical model advocated by the majority of their obstetric colleagues.