Valence beyond consensus: Party competence and policy dispersion from a comparative perspective

Part of the growing literature on valence politics interprets the electoral impact of party competence perceptions as resulting from consensus over ideological positions in contemporary societies. The relationship between valence politics and consensus, however, is usually based on either disputable theoretical assumptions or on single-country analyses. In this paper I empirically test the assumptions linking valence politics and policy consensus in a comparative perspective across 21 political systems. The results show no evidence that valence is associated with consensus, and some evidence that the electoral effect of valence is correlated with certain forms of policy dispersion, such as ideological party polarisation. The implication that perceptions of party competence are significantly informed by spatial-based considerations is discussed.     

从华侨华人结构变迁看中国对外侨务政策变化

在不同的历史时期,华侨华人的主体构成、权利构成、关系结构各有不同。从晚清至今,华侨华人作为主体经历了华侨群体、华侨社会、华人社会、新移民、其他海外侨民群体显现的渐进转变。华侨权利、华人权利、新移民权利、其他海外侨民群体的权利各有特点和侧重,华侨华人关系结构也发生了由侨民到外国人的转变,中国政府对外侨务政策也出现了政策制定法制化、政策内容区别化、政策重心调适化、政策资源融合化的变化。     

海外投资风险防范与安全管理的法律思考

近年来,中国的海外投资数额大幅增长,但同时也面临着经营亏损、管理不善、缺乏投资担保机制与损失救济措施等问题。因此有必要充分认识中国海外投资风险,从法律制度层面构建我国海外投资的风险防控机制与安全管理体系,在风险可控的前提下稳步推进“走出去”战略的实施。在分析海外投资风险类型及原因的基础上,从国际法与国内法角度,就我国海外投资风险防范与安全管理的机制构建,阐述具体的路径方法、法律措施与政策建议。     

倾心倾力做好海外职工帮扶工作

做好海外职工帮扶工作,是一件事关公司海外事业发展的重要之事,它长期性、重要性和紧迫性兼具,非常需要工会倾情倾力地加以实施.做好这项工作,需要精心建立海外职工动态帮扶档案,努力构建保障有力的制度体系,积极进行海外职工家属“大走访”,千方百计提升海外职工家属的认同支持度.     

Online versus offline: Exploring the link between how candidates campaign and how voters cast their ballot

The Internet is playing an increasingly important role in shaping citizens’ political experience. We turn to it to consume political news and, in some countries, to even cast our ballots at parliamentary elections. Leading the way in embracing Internet voting (i-voting) is Estonia where nearly half of the ballots cast during the 2019 parliamentary election were submitted online. Using original data from the 2019 Estonian Candidate Study, this paper explores the relationship between how candidates campaign and their electoral performance. It finds greater use of both offline and online campaign tools to contribute to higher vote shares as candidates win more traditional and i-votes. These positive effects are similar in size, in terms of candidates’ overall electoral performance as well as their ability to attract different types of votes. The results show not only that individual-level campaigns continue to matter, but that online campaigns have become as important as offline campaigns for candidates, and voters’ political activity often transcends the medium through which they receive political communication.     

20世纪80年代以来老挝、柬埔寨华人社会发展探析

华人在老挝、柬埔寨两国均有着较为悠久的移民历史,早在数百年前就有华人进入老挝与柬埔寨定居并繁衍生息下来。华人迁入老柬两国,在其漫长的发展历程中,充满了艰辛与苦难。尤其进入近现代,老柬华人几遭灭顶之灾,其境遇令人同情。伴随着中国与东南亚国家关系的逐步改善,现在又处于历史上关系最为良好阶段,老柬华人的权益日益得到保障,地位得到改善,在两国经济与社会发展中日益彰显重要的作用。     

论西班牙天主教在菲律宾传播的历史背景

对大多数殖民地国家而言,15世纪末以来,基督教是伴随着西方殖民主义者的隆隆炮声而来的。基督教在近代欧洲的海外扩张中充当了侵略工具,它的海外扩张是近代欧洲海外扩张的产物。本文以辨证唯物主义为指导,探讨了近代基督教传播的二重性,并在基督教东扩史和欧洲扩张史背景下来探讨了西班牙天主教在东方的传播。     

干部出国培训的理性思考

改革开放以来,我国各级国家机关选派了大批干部出国培训,既培养了一批专业化的管理人才,也有一些出国培训的研究成果问世。但是也出现了诸如一些培训知识太浅显,许多培训知识在国内也可以学到却舍近求远,以及重复出国培训等弊端,有出国旅游之嫌。国家应该采取措施,制定完善有关规章,建立干部出国培训公示制度,尽可能安排国内培训替代出国培训。     

Voting,clientelism, and identity: experimental evidence from Montenegro

ABSTRACT

The study analyses ethnic voter-candidate linkages and the electoral consequences of such linkages in an ethnically divided Montenegrin society. I argue that vote choice in Montenegro is a function of the dominance of the identity cleavage between the two largest, dominant ethnicities: Montenegrins and Serbs. I conducted a two-stage experiment on a sample of 240 students where, in the first stage, the respondents were given cues as to a candidate’s ethnicity. The results suggest both a co-identity linkage and a positive effect of ethnic information shortcuts on voters’ choices among Montenegrin respondents. For Serbs, ethnic cues failed as a substantive information shortcut in producing electoral advantage. However, additional analysis of the observational data from CSES 2016 provided more evidence to support the identity linkage hypothesis. In an additional experimental stage, respondents were introduced to vote-buying information about the same candidate, under the assumption that the defection rate would be lower for the co-identity candidate. Here, the defection rates remain stable regardless of the co-identity attachment. The overall results suggest that with additional ethnic political parties present, defection as a consequence of illicit behaviour will not translate into a significant transfer of power between ethnic groups.     

Registrants,Voters, and Turnout Variability Across Neighborhoods

Although political participation has received wide-ranging scholarly attention, little is known for certain about the effects of social and political context on turnout. A scattered set of analyses—well-known by both political scientists and campaign consultants—suggests that ones neighborhood has a relatively minor impact on the decision to vote. These analyses, however, typically rely upon data from a single location. Drawing on official lists of registered voters from sixteen major counties across seven states (including Florida) from the 2000 presidential election, we use geographic/mapping information and hierarchical models to obtain a more accurate picture of how neighborhood characteristics affect participation, especially among partisans. Our research shows that neighborhoods influence voting by interacting with partisan affiliation to dampen turnout among voters we might otherwise expect to participate. Most notably, we find Republican partisans in enemy territory tend to vote less than expected, even after accounting for socioeconomic status. Our findings have implications for campaign strategy, and lead us to suggest that campaign targeting efforts could be improved by an integration of aggregate- and individual-level information about voters.