In Times of Crisis: The Conditions of Pocketbook Effects

When and how will personal financial (aka “pocketbook”) concerns drive citizens’ political decisions? Scholars remain puzzled by the mismatch between the expectation that pocketbook voting should occur and the reality that, according to most findings, it usually does not. Using original survey data collected immediately after Iceland’s second “Icesave” referendum (2011), I first report the results of an embedded experiment that successfully evokes greater pocketbook concern. Next, I analyze the determinants of retrospective pocketbook evaluations, showing that priming effects are conditioned by political sophistication such that high sophisticates are among the most likely to report negative economic assessments. I then turn to the consequences of these egocentric views for government approval. Mediation analysis confirms a significant indirect effect, suggesting that subjective pocketbook evaluations exert a strong influence on political attitudes that has been hidden in prior work. Results illuminate the contextual, cognitive, and causal circumstances under which pocketbook effects transpire and suggest new ways in which self-interest might matter for attitudes toward international political economy issues.     

SOCIETY

正Green Coverage China’s forests such as that pictured to the right covered21.63 percent of the country’s land at the end of 2013,a rise of1.27 percentage points compared to five years ago,a State Forestry Administration survey showed.Total forest areas grew to208 million hectares at the end of2013,up from 195 million hectares five years ago.Growing stock per hectare increased by 3.91 cubic meters to 89.79 cubic meters over the past half a decade,according to a report of the five-year survey released on February 25.     

Getting Rich Before Getting Old or Vice Versa？

正REGARDING China’s economic and social outlook,there are two contending views in the domestic and overseas academic world.One predicts that China will get affluent before becoming an aging society,and the other holds the opposite opinion.A comprehensive and dynamic analysis is needed before reaching a conclusion.Complex Factors in Economic Growth Total Factor Productivity(TFP)is the most accepted measurement through which to judge total inputs’output productivity,that is,the ratio of total output to total inputs.TFP includes technological progress,organizational innovation,professionalism,etc.An increase of this index refl ects the progress of science and technology.High     

Chinese Carmakers Race for Latin American Market

正AFTER recovering from the shock of the world financial crisis,China’s automobile exports to Latin America are begining to climb.Chinese auto manufacturers,represented by Chery Automobile and Great Wall Motors,are accelerating their efforts to conquer the Latin American market.     

FOCUS

正Photo News February 17,2014Ballet dancer Zhang Yashu performs in front of Australia’s iconic landmarks,the Opera House and the Harbor Bridge,in Sydney.She is among a group of celebrated Chinese artists who will give a series of performances in Sydney and Melbourne.     

Friendship,Courting, and Engagement: Pre-electoral Coalition Dynamics in Action

The literature on pre-electoral coalitions (PECs) still relies heavily on comparative statics to gauge whether a PEC is likely to form and/or its effects on government formation. However, less is known about the behavioural dynamics of PECs. The dynamics of the recent 2009 PEC between the Socialist People's Party and the Social Democrats in Denmark are assessed. Elaborating on the signalling hypothesis, it is argued that coalition members over time must show their ability to vote together in parliament in order to establish a credible commitment. Empirical support is found for this take on the signalling thesis. It was also found that the distance between the parties narrows before the formulation of the PEC, and distinct phases in the process are pointed to, which the authors coin ‘friendship’, ‘courting’, and ‘engagement’. Finally, alternative explanations are assessed and the question of which party of the PEC would have to change voting patterns in the inter-party coordination process in order to become 'office-fit' is addressed. It is concluded that PECs have a systematic effect on the members' parliamentary voting behaviour and that they serve as a preparatory signalling device for opposition parties with office ambitions.     

股东表决权刍议

股东表决权是指股东基于其股东地位而享有的,就股东大会议案进行表决和对公司董、监事进行选举的权利,是股东权的基础.股东表决权行使原则,行使方式有其特殊性.针对我国公司股东表决权行使中存在的问题,在公司立法上应建立股东表决权的代理行使、书面行使,表决权信托制度;禁止对股东参加股东大会加以限制;建立股东表决权排除制度,累积投票制度;明确对股东大会表决、选举结果的公证制度.     

Dealigned or Still Salient? Religious-Secular Divisions in Chilean Presidential Elections

With countries like Chile facing secularisation, some research predicts religious-secular cleavages will ‘dealign’, while other research suggests these cleavages will persist so long as religious-secular divisions are reflected among presidential candidates. Using surveys of first-round voting intentions in the five most recent presidential elections in Chile, the analysis shows that religious-secular divisions in voting appear when candidates are divided clearly along religious-secular lines (and not when divisions among candidates are blurred). These findings suggest researchers need to account for the impact candidates' positions have on the appearance of religious-secular divisions before declaring that dealignment has occurred.     

Efficiency over generosity? Evidence of electoral accountability from typhoon dayoff in Taiwan

ABSTRACT

Even though voters may irrationally blame the incumbent for natural disasters, democratic accountability can still hold if voters also reward the government for good responses. This article approaches the response-reward question by exploring the election impact of typhoon dayoff decisions in Taiwan. County mayors are responsible for deciding the dayoffs before a typhoon, so voters can easily and immediately observe the quality of the mayor's decision and fully attribute the outcome to him. Results combining 2005–2014 weather, election, and ten survey datasets show that a correct dayoff, which a dayoff was announced and the storm was tomorrow is harmfully strong, can significantly increase the incumbent's vote share. The effect is larger in the election year. Meanwhile, Taiwanese voters also slightly reward the incumbent for a bonus dayoff, which the storm is unexpectedly weak. Evidence also shows that mayors exploit the incumbent advantage by announcing more correct and bonus dayoffs.     

Forecasting the 2015 British election through party popularity functions

To forecast the May 7, 2015 British General Election, we develop party popularity models based on Continuous Monitoring Survey (CMS) data from April 2004 to February 2015. Our models predict party vote shares three months prior to the election, using previous support levels, national economic evaluations, macro-partisanship and political measures. Our Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methodology allows us to predict support for the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats and “other” parties, separately, yet simultaneously, by constraining total support for all parties to 100%. Our model, estimated with data from February 2015, predicts that Labour will win the highest vote share in Great Britain, but that no party will win a majority of seats in parliament.