刑事判决程序初探

刑事审判程序包括审判前程序、审理程序和判决程序。审判前程序是审理的准备,审理则是判决的准备。仅仅依靠审判前程序和审理程序并不能保证达成妥当的判决,完善的判决程序对于形成妥当的判决是必不可少的。因此,各国无不对刑事判决程序,包括评议、表决、制作裁判文书、宣判等,作出详细的规定。但是,我国理论界和刑事诉讼立法对审理程序都比较重视,对判决程序的重要性还认识不足。我们有必要借鉴其他国家和地区的刑事判决程序规定,建构我国刑事诉讼中的判决程序。     

基于VECM模型的中国货币政策调控房地产价格的有效性分析

该文从货币政策传导理论出发,选取货币供应量、利率、商品房销售价格指数建立向量误差修正模型（VECM）,运用Johansen协整分析、Granger因果检验等方法,对货币政策调控房地产价格的有效性进行分析。结果表明,长期来看,货币政策对房地产价格具有一定的调控效果;短期内,货币供应量变化对房价的影响相对较大,而利率调整不是调控房价的有效手段;利率政策有较长时滞,但对房价波动的贡献度大于货币供应量。     

The scope of exclusionary public response to the European refugee crisis

We know from previous research that an exclusionary reaction in public opinion is likely following a sudden and large-scale influx of refugees of the sort experienced in many European countries in 2015. Yet, we know much less about the scope of these expected reactions. This article makes a conceptual and empirical contribution to the analysis of the scope of exclusionary reactions following a refugee crisis. Conceptually, we distinguish between three scope dimensions: substantive reach, duration and politicization. Empirically, we evaluate each of the scope dimensions using seven-wave panel-data collected before, during and after the large-scale influx of refugees to Norway. We find that the expected exclusionary reaction (a) spilled over to opinion about immigration broadly speaking; (b) endured in that it lasted long after the situation in Norway had been brought under control; (c) encompassed voters of all political stripes. Nevertheless, we also document an important limitation to the scope of the reaction: The sudden influx of refugees to Norway did not cause a permanent shift in public opinion. Approximately two years after the situation had been brought under control, opinion about both refugee rights and immigration generally had reverted back to pre-crisis baseline levels. Interestingly, the conceptual and empirical analysis suggests that public opinion dynamics following a sudden and large-scale influx of refugees is similar to that found in response to other forms of large national or international crises.     

The Effect of Incentive Reforms Upon Productivity: Evidence from the Vietnamese Rice Industry

In this study we use region-level panel data on rice production in Vietnam to investigate total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the period since reunification in 1975. Two significant reforms were introduced during this period, one in 1981 allowing farmers to keep part of their produce, and another in 1987 providing improved land tenure. We measure TFP growth using two modified forms of the standard Malmquist data envelopment analysis (DEA) method, which we have named the Three-year-window (TYW) and the Full Cumulative (FC) methods. We have developed these methods to deal with degrees of freedom limitations. Our empirical results indicate strong average TFP growth of between 3.3 and 3.5 per cent per annum, with the fastest growth observed in the period following the first reform. Our results support the assertion that incentive related issues have played a large role in the decline and subsequent resurgence of Vietnamese agriculture.     

Trade Liberalisation and Export Performance in Selected Developing Countries

This article examines the impact of trade liberalisation on export growth for a sample of 22 developing economies. The research applies dynamic panel data models based on fixed-effects and generalised methods of moments (GMM) estimators. In addition, heterogeneous panels for the complete sample, as well as for different regions of the world, are estimated using a time-series/cross-section technique. The main findings are that trade liberalisation is a significant determinant of export performance, but its effect varies across continents. Export duties have a small detrimental effect on export growth, while relative price changes and world income growth have the expected signs.     

Have Lower Real Wages Helped Industrial Restructuring in Romania?

A reduction in real wages arising from price liberalisation has been a standard feature of economies undergoing industrial restructuring. In this article, the impact of real wages on industrial performance is examined using a panel dataset of Romanian industries from 1990-96. Using both static and dynamic panel estimation, real wages are found not to be negatively associated with either output or employment. These results are consistent with a view that an institutionalist approach, aimed at improving productivity, may be more likely to achieve the long-term objective of successful industrial restructuring than standard adjustment programmes based on neo-classical theory.     

Does the death penalty save lives?

Research Summary Economists have recently reexamined the “capital punishment deters homicide” thesis using modern econometric methods, with most studies reporting robust deterrent effects. The current study revisits this controversial question using annual state panel data from 1977 to 2006. Employing well‐known econometric procedures for panel data analysis, our results provide no empirical support for the argument that the existence or application of the death penalty deters prospective offenders from committing homicide. Policy Implications Although policymakers and the public can continue to base support for use of the death penalty on retribution, religion, or other justifications, defending its use based solely on its deterrent effect is contrary to the evidence presented here. At a minimum, policymakers should refrain from justifying its use by claiming that it is a deterrent to homicide and should consider less costly, more effective ways of addressing crime.     

When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out

Ostensibly random and trivial experiences of everyday life, e.g., local weather, can have significant political consequences. First, we present a comprehensive meta-analysis of 34 studies of electoral turnout and rainfall – the vast majority demonstrating a negative association. Secondly, we present a new analysis of a voter panel with validated turnout for a complete electorate merged with fine-grained meteorological observations to show that Election Day rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout. Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather. Thus, bad weather exacerbates unequal democratic participation by pushing low-propensity voters to abstain. Efforts to include marginal voters therefore ought to be intensified during poor weather, and elections could even be moved to seasons with more pleasant weather to improve participatory equality.     

全国人大调查权研究

调查权是立法机关固有的权力,由于议会调查权的行使能够有效地发挥监督政府的作用,因此,外国宪法和法律都对议会调查权作出规定。我国宪法和法律也赋予县级以上各级人民代表大会组织特定问题调查委员会的权力,同时,宪法还规定全国人民代表大会有监督权和重大事项决定权,这些权力的行使说明全国人大的调查权具有宪法依据。由于我国宪法没有明确规定人大的调查权,人大行使调查权的组织和程序也缺乏相应的法律规定,不利于全国人大充分行使这一权力,针对人大调查权难以启动的原因应采取相应的立法措施。     

供给侧改革背景下财政社会保障支出对就业影响的非对称效应 —— 基于面板门限回归模型的实证分析

国内经济增长速度下降以及人口红利逐步消减,调动生产要素的积极性是供给侧改革的核心[1],劳动是生产要素的一部分,因此合理发挥社会保障对就业的促进作用至关重要。以中国31个省1998-2014年的面板数据为样本,对东、中、西部地区进行分组回归,并以人均GDP为门槛变量,运用双重门槛模型,实证研究了财政社会保障支出对就业的非对称效应:经济发展水平越高,正向促进作用越明显。