Examining the risk reduction strategies of actors in online criminal markets

Research examining offender risk reduction strategies within illicit markets focus primarily on those operating in the real world for drugs and stolen goods. Few have considered the strategies that may be used by individuals in virtual illicit markets that are hidden from public view. This study addresses this gap through a grounded theory analysis of posts from 10 Russian and three English language web forums selling stolen data to engage in identity theft and fraud. The findings indicate that buyers employ multiple strategies to reduce their risk of loss from unreliable vendors, along with resources provided by forum administrators to manage relationships between participants. The implications of this study for law enforcement and offender decision-making research are also discussed.     

Differences and Changes in Danish Party Organisations: Central Party Organisation versus Parliamentary Party Group Power

The subject of this article is the relationship between the central party organisation and the parliamentary party group. The article investigates whether Danish political parties are changing into parties dominated by their parliamentary party groups, as has been hypothesised. In contrast to most of the literature on party change, which is based on ideas of convergence caused by external changes, this article argues that party organisation is basically a party decision and therefore influenced by party preferences and characteristics. The analyses are based on data from the statutes of 16 Danish parties in over 50 years. One noteworthy finding is that Danish parties do not converge. Party ideology proves to be very important for the power structure of a party. Even though political parties are exposed to changing political circumstances they still organise according to their basic ideas about democracy and representation.     

Moderate Caucuses in a Polarised US Congress

Despite putting themselves in a thorny relationship with heavy-handed party leaders, some US legislators continue to join moderate coalitions. To understand why, this article derives seven explicit hypotheses concerning electoral, institutional, and strategic dimensions and tests them on two moderate coalitions from the 107th to the 110th Congress (2001–8): the Republican Main Street Partnership and the New Democrat Coalition, along with the Senate's ‘Gang of 14’ during the 109th Congress (2005–6). The article finds that, as expected, a member's ideology and previous affiliation strongly predict who joins these caucuses. What is surprising from the findings is that the constituencies' partisanship does not always predict the legislators' decision to be a moderate caucus member. There is little evidence that more electorally vulnerable members join these caucuses; on the contrary, when it does matter, members from competitive districts appear to stay away from moderate coalitions. Therefore, the findings call into question the prevailing ‘constituency-based’ understanding of moderate coalition membership in a polarised Congress and call for a new examination of electoral connection between moderate members and moderate caucuses.     

Use of ‘Dear Colleague’ Letters in the US House of Representatives: A Study of Internal Communications

‘Dear colleague’ letters – formal, written, member-to-member correspondence – provide a unique window into internal communications in the US House of Representatives. In general, studies of congressional political communications tend to focus on external messaging by members (candidates) to their constituents (voters) through a focus on electoral or constituent communication. Yet these studies may or may not tell us why members choose to engage in internal communication. To address this gap, this paper draws on the literature and presents new hypotheses about factors that increase a member's likelihood of using dear colleague letters. Using House dear colleague letter data from the first session of the 111th Congress (2009), a negative binomial regression tests the importance of seniority, electoral vulnerability, leadership status, and majority party status for dear colleague letter senders. The analysis demonstrates that rank-and-file majority party members who are electorally ‘safe’ are more likely to use the dear colleague system.     

Legislative Strengthening Meets Party Support in International Assistance: A Closer Relationship?

Recent reports recommend that international efforts to help strengthen legislatures in emerging democracies should work more closely with support for building stronger political parties and competitive party systems. This article locates the recommendations within international assistance more generally and reviews the arguments. It explores problems that must be addressed if the recommendations are to be implemented effectively. The article argues that an alternative, issue-based approach to strengthening legislatures and closer links with civil society could gain more traction. However, that is directed more centrally at promoting good governance for the purpose of furthering development than at democratisation goals sought by party aid and legislative strengtheners in the democracy assistance industry.     

The Impact of Parliamentary Specialisation on Cosponsorship

This study seeks to establish the effect of parliamentary specialisation on cosponsorship of parliamentary proposals in parliamentary systems with high levels of party unity. Existing studies on presidential systems suggest that cosponsorship is mainly related to legislators’ policy preferences. It is proposed that in parliamentary systems cosponsorship is, in the first place, structured by the division of labour in parliamentary party groups: MPs who do not have overlapping policy portfolios will not cosponsor proposals. Other explanations, such as policy distance and the government–opposition divide, only come into play when MPs are specialised in the same field. This expectation is tested using data from the Netherlands, a parliamentary system with a clear division of labour between MPs. It is found that specialisation has a very large impact on cosponsorship.     

A Spatial Analysis of the Italian Second Republic

The Optimal Classification method is applied to a newly created data set to provide a spatial map of the Italian Second Republic (1996–2008). A bi-dimensional political space was found in the XIII Legislature and virtually a one-dimensional political space in the XIV and XV Legislatures. In addition, the main dimension is explained along the government–opposition dimension rather than on the traditional left–right dimension. During the Second Republic, Italy experienced changes in the electoral system and in the format of parties. The data are used to discuss the implications of either change on the dimensionality space. It was found that the format of the party system was a more important determinant of the dimensionality of the political space than changes in the electoral system.     

A party system in flux: the Swedish parliamentary election of September 2018

In the Swedish parliamentary election of 7 September 2018, the biggest parties, the Social Democrats and the Moderates, both lost votes compared to their scores in the previous election, but not as many as they had feared. Commensurately, the radical-right challenger party, the Sweden Democrats (SD), which had seemed certain to profit from Sweden's dramatic experience of the European migration crisis, did well, but not as well as it had hoped. The result left the array of parliamentary forces fragmented and finely balanced. Only after months of negotiations could a government be formed. Eventually, the incumbent coalition received a renewed parliamentary mandate. At the same time, the party system was transformed.     

Local campaign activity and voting

Two types of data are used to address separate but related questions about the 2011 referendum on the parliamentary voting system. First, a survey of individual candidates at the coincident local government elections examines the extent to which local campaigning was used by the parties (as surrogates for the 'Yes' and 'No' camps) to provide information and decision cues to electors. Second, aggregate data at local authority-level compares participation in and voting preferences at the two electoral events. The combination of evidence suggests that while having coincident local elections helped to boost turnout in the referendum, the impact of local-level campaigning on the referendum outcome was marginal at best.     

Patronage of the past and future: Legislators' decision to impeach President Estrada of the Philippines

Abstract

In patronage-ridden political systems, under what conditions is patronage a more or less effective tool of political influence? This question has been neglected in the patronage politics literature due to the unwarranted premise that patronage is almost always effective. This article addresses this understudied question using the case of President Estrada's impeachment in the Philippines in November 2000. In particular, I ask why some members of Estrada's party, LAMP, decided to endorse the impeachment of the president. Using logit regression analysis, I find that LAMP legislators' impeachment decision was influenced largely by their consideration of patronage from Estrada in the past as well as its value in the future. In particular, two factors are important. First, the LAMP members who had switched their party affiliation to LAMP after the 1998 election were more likely to endorse the impeachment than those who were already LAMP members in 1998. The primary explanation for this behaviour, according to my analysis, is that the new switchers received little campaign contribution from Estrada during the previous election campaign. Second, LAMP members who faced the term limit rule were more likely to endorse the impeachment than continuing members, most probably because the departing members accorded less value to future presidential patronage than the continuing members.