Party Potential and the Pattern of Party Competition in the 2003 Swiss Federal Elections

This article explores both the party potential of the five major parties in Switzerland at the 2003 elections and how well the parties actually did in relation to how well they could have done. A party's electoral potential depends on both the probability of the electorate voting for the party and on the probability of individual voters participating in an election. The analysis shows that the SVP and the CVP were successful in mobilising their potential voters in the 2003 elections, while the FDP did almost as badly as they could have done. However, compared to the potential of the FDP or the SP, the overall potential of the SVP is limited. For the SVP, issue specific factors account for the mobilising success. This is especially the case for its stands against the EU and asylum seekers. The CVP profited from the Ruth Metzler effect, who was a key figure in the 2003 CVP campaign.     

用才“十略“

党管人才除了制定政策、整合力量,更多的是服务。要有重才之识,爱才之心,识才之智,用才之贤,举才之魄,护才之胆,容才之量,助才之情,聚才之力,育才之明。     

党内民主制度建设的路径选择——以党代会常任制改革试点为分析对象

从党代会常任制改革试点看,党内民主制度改革的路径主要有三种:一是在党组织系统内部进行改革,二是以党内民主制度建设促进人民民主制度建设,三是以人民民主制度建设促进党内民主制度建设。     

论保险公司先付责任--兼析《道路交通安全法》第75、76条

保险公司先付责任的理论与实践基础在于责任保险给付的第三人性以及保险公司社会责任的扩张。先付责任实质为保险金的先行给付，其同被保险人与第三人赔偿责任确定无关，且保险公司承担先付责任后一定条件下享有追偿权。机动车第三者强制责任险规则出台前保险公司不应承担先付责任。目前，应尽快出台机动车第三者强制责任险规则，并对受害人诉请抢救费用、保险公司履行先付责任的程序细化。增加其可操作性。     

After Number Ten: What Do Former Prime Ministers Do?

The article reviews the experience of former British prime ministers in the twentieth century. There is no fixed or predetermined role for former prime ministers. What they do after they leave office depends on personal choices and on circumstances. Some have largely disappeared from the political stage. Others have become active international 'elder statesmen'. A couple-Heath and Thatcher-were embittered 'models to avoid'. A quarter of the former prime ministers since 1900 have served in other government posts in their successors' Cabinets, while a handful have turned down such appointments. Most have gone to the Lords, which offers a political platform, but sometimes they do not think much of the quality of the second chamber. The retirements of some former prime ministers have been clouded by money worries, but they nowadays get substantial pensions and can make money from business directorships, international lectures and writing memoirs. The article concludes with speculation about what Tony Blair's post-premiership might hold.     

夫妻财产隐名共有人权利保护的法律思考——一则妻子擅自卖房案引发的思考

夫妻显名方擅自处分共有产的类案中,法官们往往徘徊于交易第三人与事实物权人之间利益平衡之间。而这一利益平衡的过程,实则体现的是登记公信力与真实权利人保护的消长关系。法官的判断过程必须准确把握登记制度的本旨、婚姻家庭制度的价值取向和社会大众一般权利意识。在保护善意交易的同时,必须对恶意利用瑕疵登记进行交易的行为作出否定性的评价,以平衡真实权利人的权益。     

党员干部要养成调查研究的习惯

加强党的执政能力建设是新时期党的建设新的伟大工程的紧迫任务。党的干部队伍的执政能力在一定意义上表现为调查研究的能力和素质,因为只有通过调查研究才能把理论与实践创造性地结合起来,才能掌握实情,发现规律,解决问题。养成调查研究的习惯是时代的需要,是干部队伍党性锻炼的源泉和基本功,调查研究工作做好了,落实科学发展观、建设和谐社会就有了保证。     

论侵权领域的当事人意思自治原则

当事人意思自治原则是涉外合同领域确定准据法的首要原则,但近年来,当事人意思自治原则有向侵权领域扩展的趋势,其原因有内、外两方面。侵权领域选择法律的做法可以促使当事人更好地解决争议。     

Culture Wars,Secular Realignment,and the Gender Gap in Party Identification

Changes in the U.S. partisan balance over the past decade are often attributed to the enhanced political salience of cultural issues. Yet as white men have continued to become more Republican in recent years, white women increasingly identify with the Democrats. To the extent that cultural issues are influencing this partisan change, men and women must be responding differently to this cultural agenda. Using a pooled ANES data set from 1988 through 2000, I explore the extent to which cultural values are responsible for this gender realignment. Findings suggest that salient cultural issues influence the partisan choices of both men and women, however in somewhat different ways. For women, the issues themselves—reproductive rights, female equality, and legal protection for homosexuals—have become increasingly important determinants of party identification. For men, the influence of cultural conflict on partisanship is argued to be equally pervasive, albeit less direct.     

Parental Socialization and Rational Party Identification

This article constructs a rational choice model of the intergenerational transmission of party identification. At a given time, identification with a party is the estimate of average future benefits from candidates of that party. Experienced voters constantly update this expectation using political events since the last realignment to predict the future in accordance with Bayes Rule. New voters, however, have no experience of their own. In Bayesian terms, they need prior beliefs. It turns out that under certain specified conditions, these young voters should rationally choose to employ parental experience to help orient themselves to politics. The resulting model predicts several well–known features of political socialization, including the strong correlation between parents' and children's partisanship, the greater partisan independence of young voters, and the tendency of partisan alignments to decay.