非洲和平与安全建设：南非的区域大国角色及限度*

作为区域大国,南非在非洲安全秩序构建中发挥着重要作用。1994年民主转型后,南非国家身份定位由西方的"白人飞地"转变为"非洲国家","以非洲为中心"成为南非外交政策的战略优先。南非非国大政府秉持新的国家身份认知,不再将非洲国家视为国家安全的威胁,而是命运与共的合作伙伴。南非通过参与解决非洲国家冲突、加强非洲集体安全机制建设、支持非洲冲突后重建与发展进程、推动联合国与非盟加强战略协调与合作、参与多边维和行动等方式参与非洲和平与安全建设,扮演了区域安全公共产品供给者的角色。南非虽然在非洲和平与安全建设的某些领域发挥了独特的引领作用,但经济增长乏力和国力相对下降,使其越来越无法有效应对日趋复杂的非洲安全形势。域外大国和国家集团加大对非洲安全事务的干预力度、其他非洲区域大国的竞争,也对南非在非洲和平与安全建设领域发挥引领作用形成了制约。在新冠肺炎疫情冲击、经济增长陷入衰退和社会矛盾加剧的背景下,南非政府将把更多精力和资源用于解决国内经济和社会发展问题,直接介入非洲冲突解决的意愿和能力会有所下降。南非在参与非洲安全事务过程中将更加惜用自身国内经济军事资源,进一步提升对外交手段、非洲集体安全机制的依靠。     

Improvising Peace: Towards New Social Contracts in Tunisia

ABSTRACT

Eight years after the Arab Spring revolutions, Tunisia's state and citizens are crafting an increasingly resilient national social contract, despite setbacks. This case study examines what is driving Tunisia's efforts, focusing in particular on key transition initiatives – including a national dialogue and a forward-looking constitution adopted by broad consensus, following nation-wide consultations. The case examines how informed and empowered Tunisians built these structures to leverage the inherent resilience capacities of the people, which developed throughout state and civil society formation, women's movements, labour movements, and civic education. The research suggests that two issues that gave rise to the revolution have remained particular challenges for efforts to mediate and address conflict: political and social polarisation and lack of livelihoods. It reveals how Tunisians are calling for more inclusion and institutionalised citizen engagement as a means to address them. Conclusions point to how post-revolution, democratisation gains as well as values of compromise, tolerance, dialogue appear to be immunising Tunisia against irreparable reversals and are laying the foundations for sustainable democratic peace.     

Beyond Dyads: Regional Democratic Strength’s Influence on Dyadic Conflict

Over the history of modern international relations research, we have moved from systemic and regional studies to empirical explorations of dyadic interactions. However, our statistical models have put the details of dyadic interactions under a microscope at the expense of ignoring the relevant regional context that these dyads interact in. This development has been in part due to computational limitations, but do we really believe that decision makers interact with one another while ignoring the regional power balance and the wishes of regional powers? In this article, I take a look at the well-researched relationship between democracy and peace by using a multilevel approach to dyadic interactions and the regions they are embedded in. The findings suggest that when the regional power balance favors democracies, it influences conflict between dyads, especially mixed dyads, by increasing the costs of aggression by autocracies and establishing regional norms of cooperation and compromise.     

From Rebels to Rulers: The Challenges of Transition for Non-state Armed Groups in Mindanao and Myanmar

This article presents a critical comparison of the ongoing peace processes in the southern Philippines and Myanmar (Burma). It does so by examining two key armed groups: the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) on Mindanao, and the Karen National Union (KNU) in Myanmar. We identify common elements that help to explain the relative – albeit incomplete – success of these two groups in navigating their respective peace processes. The MILF and KNU are ethnonationalist armed groups struggling for self-determination against states that are experienced by ethnic minority communities as culturally alien, and economically and politically dominant. Both conflict actors are characterized by complex combinations of “greed” and “grievance” factors but nevertheless enjoy significant (albeit contested) political legitimacy among the communities they seek to represent. We explore the complex relationships between armed ethnic groups, conflict-affected communities, and civil society actors. We argue that engagement with civil society is a key element of success in the Mindanao peace process, which could be replicated in Myanmar. We examine the roles and changing nature of the state in the Philippines and Myanmar, and contrast the degrees of international involvement, as key variables in these peace processes. We observe that negotiations of comprehensive peace settlements are threatened by “the tyranny of elections” in Myanmar (2015) and the Philippines (2016), and observe the importance of including national parliaments in peace processes in a timely manner. The peace process between Manila and the MILF represents a rare example of a Muslim minority pursuing its political objectives through structured dialogue. The article focuses on the challenges faced by armed groups moving from insurgency to reinvent themselves as credible political actors and governance authorities. Our analysis draws on peace-building literature, specifically the phenomenon of “rebel governance.”     

《民法典》时代的劳动者私生活安宁权：确立与实现

劳动者私生活安宁权的生成，既得益于《民法典》的颁行，又源于网络化时代劳动者私生活安 宁权益保护的迫切需求。从权利性质上看，劳动者私生活安宁权兼具自由权和社会权双重属性。然而，在当下 其权利实现却面临诸多困难，表现为与雇主监督管理权的矛盾及冲突，《民法典》隐私权保护框架的不周延性 以及劳动法保护规范的滞后性。研究建议，就劳动者私生活安宁权的实现路径来看，一是要对《民法典》的保 护路径予以细化和调整，二是要在劳动法中创制新的制度与规则对劳动者进行特别保护。与此同时，应遵循 “两 步走”策略，以协调《民法典》保护与劳动法保护之关系，从而充分实现劳动者的私生活安宁权益。     

Alliance of Civilizations： The global peace project of the 21st century

The Alliance of Civilizations was established in 2005, at the initiative of the Governments of Spain and Turkey; under the auspices of the United Nations for inter civilizations dialogue to bridge the gap between the West and Muslim world. This article analyzes advantage and disadvantage sides of the success of this initiative.     

The Future of Northern Ireland: the Role of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement Institutions

Since the 2016 Brexit referendum a series of crises has gripped Northern Ireland's politics. This has had a destabilising effect across society, which has arguably been felt most acutely by political unionism. The Belfast/Good Friday Agreement (B/GFA) of 1998 created a series of institutions to deal with political conflict in Northern Ireland, manage cross-border cooperation and normalise relations between the UK and Ireland. However, many aspects of it have been sparingly and ineffectually deployed, most notably the second and third strands dealing with north/south and east/west relations respectively. In this article, the authors argue that regular use of the institutional arrangements created by the Agreement would help to deal with the challenges currently facing Northern Ireland and help address unionist anxieties over the Protocol. Use of the North-South Ministerial Council (NSMC), the British Irish Council (BIC) and the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIGC) should be prioritised. The unresolved issues arising from Brexit require a recommitment to the intergovernmental logic at the heart of the 1998 Agreement, despite the obstacles.     

亚文化与廉政文化的冲突及其消解

廉政文化建设中如何对待亚文化,是一个值得研究的课题。干部的生活圈、社交圈、工作圈是当前亚文化集结聚合的三个主要领域。在廉政建设中,它从深层次制约和支配个体的行为和社会活动,对廉政文化或者起着某种补充、强化作用,或者起着干扰甚至消解作用。调和亚文化与廉政文化之间的冲突,东西方文化有着各自不同的路径,但“和而不同”是应遵循的一条重要原则。     

Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace

Is peace more likely to prevail when the peace accord includes civil society actors such as religious groups, women's organizations, and human rights groups? This is the first statistical study that explores this issue. The article develops key claims in previous research regarding the role of civil society actors and durable peace, and proposes a set of hypotheses that focus on legitimacy in this process. The hypotheses are examined by employing unique data on the inclusion of civil society actors in all peace agreements in the post–Cold War period. The statistical analysis shows that inclusion of civil society actors in the peace settlement increases the durability of peace. The results further demonstrate that peace accords with involvement from civil society actors and political parties in combination are more likely to see peace prevail. The findings also suggest that inclusion of civil society has a particularly profound effect on the prospects for overall peace in nondemocratic societies.     

‘High Resolution’ Indicators in Peacebuilding: The Utility of Political Memory

This article explores the use of political memory in examining, and providing indicators for, everyday processes of peacebuilding in divided societies, using Northern Ireland as a brief case study. Adopting a position critical of many formal peacebuilding indicators, the article argues for the utility of informal, ‘high resolution’ indicators that can be supplied by examining localized and everyday forms of post-conflict memory. In so doing, the article views the ‘dealing with the past’ and reconciliatory paradigm of social memory in identity driven conflicts as being inadequate for this purpose, and instead posits a more nuanced form of examining memory as a political arena. A case study of political memory in east Belfast is introduced to illustrate both the need for nuance in highlighting localized activity, and need to better reflect a complex and ambiguous peacebuilding environment. Suggestions for methodological approaches geared to capturing processes of everyday political memory, and how these processes can inform praxis, concludes the study.