Verbal Ability and Persistent Offending: A Race-specific Test of Moffitt’s Theory

Theoretical questions linger over the applicability of the verbal ability model to African-Americans and the social control theory hypothesis that educational failure mediates the effect of verbal ability on offending patterns. Accordingly, this paper investigates whether verbal ability distinguishes between offending groups within the context of Moffitt’s developmental taxonomy. Questions are addressed with longitudinal data spanning childhood through young-adulthood from an ongoing national panel, and multinomial and hierarchical Poisson models (overdispersed). In multinomial models, low verbal ability predicts membership in a life-course-persistent-oriented group relative to an adolescent-limited-oriented group. Hierarchical models indicate that verbal ability is associated with arrest outcomes among White and African-American subjects, with effects consistently operating through educational attainment (high school dropout). The results support Moffitt’s hypothesis that verbal deficits distinguish adolescent-limited- and life-course-persistent-oriented groups within race, as well as the social control model of verbal ability.     

智能和侦查智能辨析

智能是能力的一种,指运用知识理解、认识事物、解决问题的能力,它以观察能力、记忆能力、想象能力、思维能力、反应能力这些智力因素为基础。侦查智能是侦查人员运用知识从事侦查的能力;侦查谋略、侦查思维、侦查技能都可以是侦查智能的一部分,但也存在区别。这些异同点的辨析是侦查智能问题研究的基础。     

农业产业化：欠发达农业主产区经济发展的战略选择

区域经济能否发展和赶超,主要取决于是否制定和实施了恰到好处的经济发展战略。欠发达农业主产区经济发展不仅可以通过走工业化之路来推进,还可以通过走农业产业化之路来实现。农业产业化具有市场化、工业化和休闲化等体现方式,已经具有推动区域经济发展的许多成功案例。农业产业化本质上是农业综合化。我国欠发达农业主产区农业产业化有一定发展但存在较大问题。欠发达农业主产区应该审时度势,将农业产业化作为欠发达农业主产区经济发展的战略选择,并制定和实施相应的配套措施。     

妇女在村委会选举中的竞选策略研究——以湖北省随州市为个案

2008年中国2/3的省将开展新一轮的村委会选举,农村妇女能否顺利进入村庄权力结构,需要公共政策的支持,同时妇女参与村委会选举的竞选策略也非常重要.本文以湖北随州市选举调研为基础,阐述了在农村初级政治市场形成的背景下,妇女在村委会竞选中运用营销策略的正当性和必要性以及存在的认识误区;并以案例分析的形式,探讨了妇女在村委会选举中的竞选策略,为妇女参与即将到来的下一届村委会换届选举竞选提供帮助.     

“战略行政学”引论

社会的内在需要和需求呼唤学术界必须对"行政战略"进行思考。"行政战略"是一个自古有之的行政现象,且具有丰富的哲学内涵,但不同历史阶段有不同的表现形式。"行政战略"概念的提出开启了一个崭新的行政管理学研究领域。专门研究"行政战略"的学问就是"战略行政学"。     

Changing South Korean Water Policy after Political and Economic Liberalisation

This study explores the way in which South Korean water policy has been dynamically (re-)constructed by continuing political contestations among diverse social forces acting in and through the state in the face of political and economic liberalisation. The path-dependency of the state-driven water resource policy under the former authoritarian regime did not disappear even after the democratisation. It was difficult to transform the old authoritarian and hierarchical water governance to the newly democratic and environmentally friendly one because the Ministry of Construction, as a main actor in driving water policy under the authoritarian regimes, did not give up its interest in a dam-based policy orientation, although it did partially accept institutional tools for democratic policy making, such as public hearings and the participation of civil society in the process of establishing the water policy plan. It also showed democratic and environment-friendly gestures using the rhetoric of environmentalism and localisation. Overall, this article emphasises the importance of the path-dependency of the past authoritarian regimes under democratised society to better understand the current democratic regime’s policy orientation.     

Demystifying the Park Chung-Hee Myth: Land Reform in the Evolution of Korea’s Developmental State

The developmental state literature emphasises the importance of state autonomy and capacity, with a particular focus on a Weberian type of meritocratic bureaucracy. Existing studies of South Korea’s economic development generally credit Park Chung-hee for establishing such a state. This article questions this assessment with careful process tracing of the development of a meritocratic bureaucracy in the country. The findings suggest that the contrast between the predatory Rhee regime (1948–1960) and the developmental Park regime (1961–1979) has been exaggerated. Meritocracy in South Korea’s bureaucratic recruitment and promotion systems developed gradually over several decades, including during Rhee’s regime as well as the short democratic episode (1960–1961). What then explains the evolution of a developmental state in Korea? This article suggests that land reform contributed to not only creating social structural conditions favourable to state autonomy but also promoting the development of a meritocratic bureaucracy by propelling rapid expansion of education and by mitigating the extent of political clientelism.     

中国企业发展战略的文化思考

迎接经济全球化的挑战,适应知识经济发展的社会,加大企业改革的力度,都需要加强企业化建设。企业化作为管理理论、管理思想和管理方式,对网络经济和确定以人为本的现代意识,对形成和谐管理的方式,都具有十分重要的作用。实施企业化管理,建设企业化,应该将企业家化的形成、优良传统的继承、讲求个异化特征放在重要位置加以重视。     

从求强、求富到人的现代化——中国现代化50年发展战略的反思

毛泽东时代 ,要使新中国在不利的国际环境下立足 ,国家现代化发展目标首先是求强 ;邓小平时代 ,则以求富为国家现代化的发展目标 ,开创出了改革开放的大局面 ;后邓小平时代 ,面临世界经济一体化和新一轮新技术革命的挑战 ,国家的现代化目标是“以人为本”的社会全面均衡发展 ,这是需要几代人共同努力的事业     

美国对华拒止性威慑战略论析

拒止性威慑的思想源远流长,作为一种军事战略的拒止性威慑具有广泛性、实时性和受挑战性三个主要特点。拒止性威慑的思路相比惩罚性威慑更具操作性,在信息化战争时代也更具优势。美国战略学界认为,在西太平洋地区中美实力日渐接近的情况下,对华拒止性威慑战略是较优选项。美国对华拒止性威慑战略兴于特朗普政府时期,其主要特点是加强军事系统弹性能力建设与发展新战区导弹防御体系。拜登政府则在“一体化威慑”框架下应用对华拒止性威慑,发展深度防御能力。美国对拒止性威慑战略的理解与应用已经突破了传统意义上偏重防御的拒止性威慑模式。该战略的目标是联合盟友阻止中国在西太平洋地区的快速军事行动,维持和巩固在该地区的军事主导权。虽然美国对华拒止性威慑战略的实践受到了诸多内外因素制约,但其给中美带来的负面影响仍在不断加深,并对地区安全构成巨大挑战。中国需要主动培塑有利于军力发展的良好环境,发展新技术装备,应对美国对华拒止性威慑战略实践造成的军事胁迫,降低各类战略风险。