美国国内恐怖袭击新态势与原因探析

特朗普政府延续奥巴马政府后期的反恐战略,采取国际"收缩"战略,把反恐重点转移到国内,但美国国内恐怖袭击不仅没有减少反而急遽增加.依据全球恐怖主义数据库(GTD)关于美国国内恐怖袭击的数据分析,当前美国国内恐怖袭击呈现出"独狼式""无领袖"和"分散化"的特点,总体上恐袭频率加快、烈度增强.具体表现在:种族极端主义恐袭日益...     

广西服务业科技发展的战略与对策

文章在对广西服务业发展现状、存在问题、面临的机遇与挑战等进行分析的基础上,系统探讨了广西服务业科技发展的战略选择、重大任务、重点领域、政策与保障措施等有关问题,对于促进广西服务业的进一步发展具有现实意义。     

论当今国际社会的特点及对中国国际社会战略的启示

当今国际社会是以美国为首的西方国家主导、经济全球化为核心的全球化加速发展、国际政治问题社会化和国际社会问题政治化、权力政治和权利政治共存竞争的全球性国际社会。这启示中国应当在坚持符合国家利益和国际利益的原则基础上,以营造良好国际环境与塑造和谐国际社会为目标,更积极地融入国际社会,在融入中做到传统外交和非传统外交并重,保持一颗平常心和自信心,灵活对待社会主义国家和发展中国家身份,着力处理好与大国和周边国家的关系,尤其是中美两国之间的关系问题。     

对外依存与中国外交的战略自主

改革开放四十年,中国经济得到长足发展,与此同时也带来了对外依存度偏高的风险,而经济上的对外依存与战略自主之间存在密切的相互影响关系。回顾一些大国的对外战略可以看出,相互依存直接影响对外战略,对外依存度过高会导致战略自主性的下降,从而极大缩减战略选项,甚至在一些关键节点不得不诉诸战略冒险。中国的对外依存与战略自主的关系也经历了复杂的演变过程。新中国成立后,中国一度采取"一边倒"的对外政策,在一定程度上影响了战略自主。改革开放之后,中国经济对外部市场、技术和能源的依存度不断上升,也在一定程度上限制了中国对外战略的全面自主发展。因此,中国的大国战略必须在外向与内顾、国际与国内之间保持适当的平衡,更为合理地协调对外依存与战略自主之间的关系,将全面深度改革开放与全方位外交布局紧密联系在一起。唯其如此,中国未来的大国外交才能行稳致远。     

Small winners and big losers: strategic party behaviour in the 2017 Dutch general election

Abstract

This article analyses party strategies during the campaign for the Dutch general election of March 2017, making use of issue-yield theory. It investigates whether parties strategically emphasise high-yield issues, by juxtaposing the issue opportunities provided by voters with parties’ issue emphasis during the campaign. More specifically, it asks whether parties strategically emphasised issues that were expected to reward them electorally. Analysing voter preferences and party campaign data, it is found that parties and most of their constituencies show high ideological consistency, that parties emphasise mostly positional issues and thus choose a conflict-mobilising strategy, and that most parties emphasise high-yield issues rather than following the general political agenda. Four small parties that won significantly behaved strategically while the social democrats – who severely lost – hardly did. The findings imply that the issue-yield framework can help to explain the election result in the fragmented Dutch multi-party context.     

基于GTD的教育机构恐怖袭击实证分析及防范策略

在反恐形势日趋严峻的大环境下,教育机构已逐渐成为恐怖分子袭击的重点目标。基于GTD数据库中所收录的2009-2018年恐怖袭击的数据,以教育机构为研究对象,从教育机构恐怖袭击的发生数量、地域分布、袭击手段,以及所造成的后果等方面进行梳理,并对两个典型案例(两个国家的情况)进行分析,发现教育机构恐怖袭击主要有以下特点:袭击频发但呈下降趋势、袭击地域分布不平衡、袭击手段以爆炸为主袭击损失小但引起恐慌大等。对教育机构恐怖袭击,应从安保措施、情报预警、危险品管控以及宣传教育等方面加强防范。     

Hurdles to peace: a level-of-analysis approach to resolving Sudan’s civil wars

Why do some peace agreements end armed conflicts whereas others do not? Previous studies have primarily focused on the relation between warring parties and the provisions included in peace agreements. Prominent mediators, however, have emphasised the importance of stakeholders at various levels for the outcome of peace agreements. To match the experience of these negotiators we apply a level-of-analysis approach to examine the contextual circumstances under which peace agreements are concluded. While prominent within the causes of war literature, level-of-analysis approaches are surprisingly scant in research about conflict resolution. This article compares two Sudanese Peace Agreements: the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (2005) that ended the North–South war and led to the independence of South Sudan, and the Darfur Peace Agreement (2006) which failed to end fighting in Darfur. We find that factors at the local, national and international level explain the different outcomes of the two agreements. Hence, the two case studies illustrate the merit of employing a level-of-analysis approach to study the outcome of peace agreements. The main contribution of this article is that it presents a new theoretical framework to understand why some peace agreements terminate armed conflict whereas others do not.     

沉默权：一个无法沉默的话题——从我国刑诉法“应当如实回答”谈起

我国刑诉法规定了犯罪嫌疑人面对审讯人员的审讯：“应当如实回答”的义务,使其在刑事诉讼中处于不利的地位。是否赋予犯罪嫌疑人沉默权,由“口供本位”转向“物证本位”,彻底改变目前的侦查模式,是我国刑事诉讼法修改的一个不容忽视的重要问题。     

甘肃省禁毒方略探讨

作为西部地区之一的甘肃省,禁毒工作在取得了显著成效的同时面临的形势依然严峻,禁毒斗争依然任重道远。为了使甘肃省禁毒斗争取得新的突破,本文探讨了甘肃省禁毒工作面临的新形势,并提出了进一步开展禁毒工作的建议。     

21世纪初日本对外目标及外交战略探析

21世纪初期,日本在坚持“普通国家化”既定战略目标的基础上,从国家战略原则、战略重点及国家利益出发,围绕日美同盟、联合国外交、亚洲外交、应对全球气候变化等战略重点,力求以“全方位外交”实现日本国家对外目标及外交战略意图。