Sustaining Peace One Day at a Time: Inclusion,Transition Crises,and the Resilience of Social Contracts

ABSTRACT

This article argues that inclusion is a key driver of resilient social contracts and a foundation for sustaining peace. Drawing on case studies conducted under the Forging Resilient Social Contracts project and building on the literature on transitions from war to peace and authoritarianism to democracy, the theoretical framework links inclusion to peace sustainability. Interrogating how and why processes of inclusion matter, we argue that resilient social contracting is driven by elite inclusion, societal inclusion and their interactions. Four case-studies illustrate the arguments. Resilient social contracting, findings suggest, allows countries to weather crises and survive to ‘transition another day’.     

新时代农村基层党组织推进乡风文明建设的逻辑理路

乡风文明建设,不仅关乎农村社会稳定发展,还是新时代实施乡村振兴战略的精神保障。农村基层党组织是党在农村全部工作的基础,新时代农村基层党组织推进乡风文明建设具有一以贯之的内在逻辑。在新时代的历史方位中,农村社会进入全面转型期,这不仅给农村基层党组织推进乡风文明建设带来了诸多机遇,还使其面临农村集体经济式微、农村基层党组织公信力减弱、农村文化发展失魂、部分农民不良陋习与"等靠要"贫困心理滋生等现实挑战。有鉴于此,巩固、扩大乡风文明建设已有成果,需要农村基层党组织以发展壮大农村集体经济为主要抓手、以获取农民对农村基层党组织的信任为突破点、以传承发展农村优秀传统文化为核心、以移风易俗实践活动为主要治理手段、把消除贫困农民精神贫困作为重要内容,积极探索乡风文明建设的新路径。     

Mixing Grand Strategies: Trump and International Security

ABSTRACT

When a new President is elected in the United States, the first thing analysts do is define that President’s grand strategy; yet, naming Donald Trump’s grand strategy was a difficult task as his pre-election speeches often contradicted traditional US foreign policy norms. Trump’s ambiguous grand strategy combines two US foreign policy strategies: nationalism in the sense that his preference is for unilateral policies prioritising American interests, and a traditional foreign policy approach, as seen in the moves taken against China and Iran. Surprisingly, this grand strategy unintentionally contributes to cooperation in Eurasia, as actors like Russia, China, Turkey, India and the European Union continue to try to balance the threat from the United States instead of competing with each other, while smaller countries are reluctant to challenge the regional powers due to mistrust towards Trump.     

作为国家发展战略的非遗保护:分形传承与公共化

非遗保护在我国是国家发展战略的一个重要方面,在近20年的发展中产生了许多有待不断深化探讨的问题:传统与当下关系、“原生态”争议、遗产的主体以及活态传承与再生产等。研究认识传统文化在当代的生态演化和分形传承特征,对于从国家发展战略高度认识传统文化资源的产权再构和公共化产品生产具有重要意义。     

Defense planning in the fog of peace: the transatlantic currency conversion conundrum

ABSTRACT

Resource allocation to and within defense budgets is grand strategy. NATO and the EU coordinate defense planning and encourage fair burden-sharing among their members. We analyze the effect of agreed planning processes, namely the “NATO Defense Planning Process (NDPP)” on the conversion of political will to resources and then to capabilities development across the transatlantic security community. In a “fog of peace” featuring diverse threats, and in which allies may disagree on strategic rivals and sources of risk, national and regional political economies shape strategy, not the other way around.     

From Peacekeeping to Stabilisation: Interorganisational Co-operation,Challenges and the Law

ABSTRACT

Global complexity and limitations in the United Nation's legal framework necessitates collaboration with regional organisations, creating tension between the legal frameworks guiding peacekeeping, the use of force, and intervention practices within the increasing complexity of peace enforcement and stabilisation missions with a Protection of Civilians mandate. With the UNs lack of impetus in clarifying stabilisation as a concept, the use of force required for stabilisation cannot be justified, necessitating the use of regional organisations' more flexible legal frameworks. The continued complexity of contemporary peace and security requires a reassessment of peacekeeping doctrine that, if left unaddressed, risk condemnation for illegal ‘peacekeeping'.     

类案检索机制的设计原理与实施评估

类案检索机制从2017年8月1日提出以来,最高人民法院和各级人民法院密集出台了实施规范。类案检索机制的原理是:法官依托类案检索系统,全面检索与其待办案件类似的案件,法官依据检索结果制作类案检索报告,法官对同类生效案件裁判尺度与正在审理的案件进行比较,以类案类判为标准作出裁判。针对我国类案检索机制在实施中的问题,将来的类案检索机制应当从以下几个方面进行完善:优化裁判文书数据库、改进技术应用手段、完善检索规则、确立类案识别标准、公开类案检索结果。     

Analizando la violencia después del conflicto: el caso de Guatemala en un estudio sub-nacional

This article conceptualizes post-conflict violence by developing its definition, analyzing the factors which can explain it and constructing a typology of eight forms of violence. A central concern of this analysis is that there are different degrees of relation between the violence of conflicts and post-conflict violence given that some forms are fully related, while others are only partially related, and still others are completely independent of armed conflict. While general conditions of peace define post-conflict violence in a weak sense, direct legacies of war define post-conflict violence in a strong sense. The Guatemalan case study allows to identify patterns related to each form of violence at a sub-national level of analysis.     

构建新发展格局的依据与进路

构建新发展格局是以习近平同志为核心的党中央根据我国发展阶段、环境、条件变化,运用系统思维、战略思维、改革思维等精心谋划的重大战略选择。从新发展理念的确定,到新发展阶段的判断,再到构建新发展格局,标志着十九大确定的大战略臻于成熟。从大战略形成的内在逻辑,重点分析构建新发展格局的理论基础以及为什么在新发展阶段必须构建新发展格局两大理论问题,提出开好局起好步的关键是加快系统集成与改革创新,从供给与需求两方面着力疏通国民经济循环的“淤点”“堵点”,整体性提高经济发展的质量与效率。     

Threat and alignment behavior

Alliance formation and termination are examined in the context of the impact of international threats on efforts to enhance national security. Threats against allies are shown to provide diagnostic information about the prospects that a state will be threatened. This diagnostic information is shown to lead to more sucessful national security‐enhancing actions than do threats against the state itself. The theoretical foundation on which the analysis is based is an expected utility approach to conflict decision making. The empirical domain is the European system from 1816 to 1965.