安徽司法行政40年发展历程回顾与新时代发展展望

40年来,安徽司法行政机关历经了不同历史时期的机构改革,司法行政业务从最初的法制宣传、律师公证、人民调解、劳改劳教、法学教育与研究等“五大业务门类”,逐步扩展到包括法律援助、仲裁机构设立登记、管理司法鉴定、国家统一法律职业资格考试管理、社区矫正、安置帮教等在内的十多项职能。2018年,省司法厅重新组建后,定位发生了全面、深刻变化,职能贯通立法、执法、司法、守法普法各环节,汇聚法治安徽、法治政府、法治社会建设于一体,形成了“一个统筹、四大职能”的工作总体布局。     

Power,Policy and Co-ordination in Law Reform: a Civil Servant and Town Planning Law, 1929–1930

The process of turning policy into legislation has been the subject of intense debates with some emphasising 'pressure groups', some pointing to Members of Parliament and others stressing the importance of civil servants with their own strong beliefs. This article argues that a particular type of civil service role has not been explored: we need to look at the civil servant who co-ordinates the process of reform. He or she starts with no particular commitment but seeks to provide a framework for legislation which can respond to contrasting and, on some occasions, even mutually inconsistent ideas. Co-ordination is in itself a form of power, and its significance can be seen in the compromises and gaps which are often found in government legislation and which are frequently the product of the co-ordinating role with its search for some minimal level of agreement and 'workable' drafts. The case-study for this analysis of law-making is the strained attempt to reform planning law in the years 1929–1932 in such a way as to make the law an instrument for preserving the countryside and improving housing and city conditions. It was a major attempt at social engineering and highly contentious for contemporaries. It is the essence of this type of law-reform that it simultaneously changes past law and, because it is an administratively co-ordinated compromise, it also produces problems which demand further reform within a few years.     

Adversary Group Decision-Making Regarding Choice of Attack Methods: Expecting the Unexpected

Anticipating whether an adversary group will continue to use their usual (“conventional”), expected attack methods is important for military and counterterrorism practitioners tasked with protecting the security of others. Conventional attack methods are by their nature easier to plan and prepare for whilst “innovative” methods may take those responsible for security and counterterrorism by surprise and, as such, may have more impact and more serious consequences. The present study aimed to develop understanding of how, when, and why adversary groups might decide to use conventional attack methods or opt to do something innovative instead. A literature review was conducted and findings were applied to develop a thorough understanding of the decision-making process that underlies an adversary group's choice of attack method. Identified are three stages preceding the execution of an attack: a) “strategic direction”; b) “incubation”; and c) “planning and preparation,” plus “overarching” and “contextual” factors that can influence the process at each stage. It is suggested that it is these factors and how they influence decision-making that result in innovative methods being used to execute an attack, or convention prevailing. Findings can aid practitioners and policy-makers in counterterrorism, security, and law enforcement, to support their understanding, evaluation, and countering of current and future threats.     

Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence

Over half of all civil wars that began and ended between 1944 and 1997 were followed by at least one if not more episodes of civil war. We present a model to explain which characteristics of a civil war and the post-war environment make civil war more or less likely to recur. We test this model with data on civil wars that began and ended between 1944 and 1997. Findings suggest that civil wars are less likely to recur following rebel victories and peace agreements supported by peacekeeping forces. Post-war economic development also reduces the probability of civil war recurrence, and the longer the peace can be sustained, the less likely civil war is to recur. These effects hold regardless of whether the previous war was ethnically based or not, and whether it was secessionist or revolutionary.     

Events Data as Bismarck's Sausages? Intercoder Reliability,Coders' Selection,and Data Quality

Precise measurement is difficult but essential in the generation of high-quality data, and it is therefore remarkable that often so little attention is paid to intercoder reliability. It is commonly recognized that poor validity leads to systematic errors and biased inference. In contrast, low reliability is generally assumed to be a lesser concern, leading only to random errors and inefficiency. We evaluate the intercoder reliability of our recently collected data on governance events in UN peacekeeping and show how poor coding and low intercoder reliability can produce systematic errors and even biased inference. We also show how intercoder reliability checks are useful to improve data quality. Continuous testing for intercoder reliability ex post enables researchers to create better data and ultimately improves the quality of their analyses.     

冲突后国家警察改革与民众安全治理 ——以联合国维和行动为视角

武装冲突刚刚结束后的国家容易出现安全缺口,普通民众依然面临着诸多安全威胁,主要有前战斗人员和缺乏管控的武器、不断上升的犯罪率、与选举相关的暴力及针对妇女儿童的犯罪等。此时,国家尚缺乏有效的国内治安治理机制和能力,警察机构亟须改革乃至重建。当今联合国维和行动越来越注重协助冲突后国家警察部门的改革与能力建设。改革应力求标本兼治,既缓解冲突后民众安全需求的燃眉之急,又注重警察部门中、长期的机构建设和发展。改革应以民众的安全为首要目标,重点是警察民主警务观念及技能的培养、组织架构及管理机制的建立,尤其是内部监督机制的建立与有效执行。此外,还应注意本土化问题。改革在实施过程中存在诸多挑战,如当地警力资源的匮乏、警察的公共形象差、民众的弱势地位、国际援助部门之间缺乏协调等。该文亦对增强冲突后国家警察队伍能力建设及民众保护问题提出了若干建议。     

北京中心城城市雕塑的规划建设研究

城市雕塑是构建城市总体艺术形象,反映城市文脉特征,避免城市形象趋同的主要手段之一。以北京中心城城市雕塑建设发展为线索,从西方雕塑源头出发找寻当前城市雕塑问题产生的根源,并借鉴当代城市雕塑与公共艺术杰出案例,以及政策和制度上的成熟经验,探寻在未来城市雕塑建设中的规划建设理论架构。     

公共部门规划:目标—发展重点矩阵构建及应用

公共部门相对其他部门具有特殊性,因此,该领域规划设计要求有与之特点相适应的分析工具。本文梳理了公共部门规划发展的脉络,并对常用的规划分析工具进行了综述,指出了现有工具在公共部门规划应用的有效性和局限性。笔者根据规划实践提出了目标-发展重点矩阵(Objectives-Keys Perspective Matrix),在对该矩阵进行论证、推导和构建之后,以北京市十二五卫生发展改革规划课题为例,演示了该矩阵的实际运用情况,指出了构建矩阵需要考量的问题,并对该矩阵的推广使用进行了讨论。     

The Commonwealth,Gender and Peacekeeping

Abstract

Reflecting on the strategic commitment outlined in the Plan of Action for Gender Equality (2005–2015) and the priority issues of the Commonwealth Women’s Forum, this article assesses the extent to which the Commonwealth as an institution is supporting troop- and police-contributing member states in addressing the gender imbalance in peacekeeping operations. Drawing on desk-based research, interviews with international policymakers and a statistical analysis of the International Peace Institute Peacekeeping Database, the article first outlines the Commonwealth’s gender and security policy perspective before examining datasets to determine the success of Commonwealth member states in integrating women into uniformed peacekeeping contingents between 2009 and 2015. The article observes that, in spite of a renewed optimism and drive to propel women into leadership positions in politics, the judiciary, public bodies and private companies, security-sector reform and the implementation of pillar one of the UN Security Council Resolution 1325 are notably absent from the Commonwealth’s gender agenda. It is argued that this policy gap suggests that national and international security architecture is regarded as an accepted domain of male privilege. A lack of political will among Commonwealth heads of government to mainstream gender equality and facilitate structural transformation of national security organs and a chronically under resourced Commonwealth Secretariat limit the influence of the institution to that of arms-length promoter of international norms on women, peace and security.     

西安市城市环形扩的隐忧

西安市三环路工程是建国以来西安市最大的城市基础设施项目,总投资62.5亿元,计划工期为2004—2007年。西安市三环路是一条重要的城市快速环路,它除了具有快速路系统枢纽的功能外,在西安市形态、发展战略、城市建设各方面都有特殊的作用,但是三环路的建设很可能会给西安市的发展带来严重问题:交通拥堵、环境污染、房价高涨。