关键基础设施服务的缺失风险对应急准备的影响

危机情境下关键基础设施服务的“不可得性”往往为应急准备者所忽视或遗漏,使得应急响应行动很可能因为失去“被事先视为当然的服务”而无法顺利进行。在明确地提出了应急响应中存在此种类型的服务缺失风险之后,为了能够系统地识别并减缓这类服务缺失风险,本文提出了一种交互的分析视角及相应的两层分析框架,对可能出现的基础设施服务缺失风险类型进行了理论探讨;接下来,利用三个应急管理的典型案例,给出了这种缺失风险存在的经验证据并初步讨论了本文风险类型划分的可行性;最后,在抽查并分析我国目前应急预案编制的实际情况和水平的基础上,针对我国应急预案的编制和升级,从应急准备的角度提出了控制及减缓这类服务缺失风险的政策建议。     

当代大学生职业生涯规划的现实考量及对策研究

大学生职业生涯规划是通过大学生的自我认识、自我肯定、自我成长,最终达到自我实现的个人发展过程。当前大学生职业生涯规划中存在着认识模糊、实践缺乏科学性、指导不得力等突出问题。我们可以从师资、政策、管理等方面入手,通过普及职业生涯规划理念,加强咨询和测评力度,构建科学的社会实践体系,帮助大学生实现自己的职业目标。     

大学生士兵职业生涯规划教育探析

随着我军大规模征召大学生士兵,军人职业化色彩愈显浓厚,军队有必要对大学生士兵开展职业生涯规划教育,尊重他们的个人需要,帮助他们根据军人职业特点及发展规律,增强主体意识,明确奋斗目标,有意识地培养自己的多种能力,为他们提供不断发展的机会,帮助他们实现个人目标以及为将来更好地适应社会做好准备,使他们的职业生涯有一个更完整的延续与发展。     

The geography of metropolitan opportunity: A reconnaissance and conceptual framework

Abstract

We present a conceptual framework for metropolitan opportunity and a model of individual decision making about issues affecting youth's future socioeco‐nomic status. Decision making and its geographic context have objective and subjective aspects. Objective spatial variations occur in the metropolitan opportunity structure—social systems, markets, and institutions that aid upward mobility. Decisions are based on the decision‐maker's values, aspirations, preferences, and subjective perceptions of possible outcomes, which are all shaped by the local social network (e.g., kin, neighbors, and friends).

We also review the psychological literature on decision making. We hypothesize that the decision‐making method varies with the range of opportunities considered: Those with fewer options adopt a less considered method wherein mistakes and short‐term focus are more likely. Our review also finds empirical evidence that the local social network has an important effect on youth's decisions regarding education, fertility, work, and crime. Policy implications are discussed.     

Environment-shaping: An Alternative Approach to Applying Foreign Development Assistance

Development assistance has a chequered past, in large part because planning for development assistance is historically such a fractured enterprise internally, and so disassociated from development assistance recipients’ assets and needs. The authors of environment-shaping offer an alternative development programme planning methodology that highlights above all else the ever-important relationship between development assistance and the environment into which it is offered. The authors employ an asset-based, rather than a traditional deficit-based, approach to assessing the environment for which development assistance will be formulated. The authors then highlight the power of perceptions in the creation of policy programming and in identifying and reinforcing opportunities for positive feedback loops within the recipient environment as critical to truly ‘sustainable’ development.     

"为和平而来"——解析中国参与非洲维和行动

中国是联合国维和行动的坚定支持者和参与者。目前,中国为联合国第十二大出兵国,在五大常任理事国中名列第一。近几年,中国参与维和行动的积极姿态已引起全世界的高度关注。特别是,非洲已经成为中国参与维和的重点区域,这也引发了外界对中国意图的警惕与忧虑。因此,在新时期如何正确解读中国在非洲的维和行动,并对其进行客观分析,具有十分重要的理论与现实意义。     

文化人类学研究与旅游规划

盖茨(Getz)提出一种整合的系统模型作为旅游规划的框架,它可以避免旅游规划以往只关注发展的倾向,也有利于旅游研究的理论发展。这一模型的理论基础是整体系统理论,其递进关系为:理解控制旅游系统;形成目标;制定达成目标的具体项目;选择并评价可能的规划;实施;评价和反馈。     

Mediation in War: Winning Hearts and Minds Using Mediated Condolence Payments

When an Iraqi noncombatant civilian is killed in the crossfire between the U.S. military and insurgents, the victim's family can apply for a "condolence payment" of up to $2,500 as a token of condolence and sympathy. As the process currently stands, the family member is handed a sum of money by U.S. personnel and ushered out the door. In this model, money equals apology. In this article, the author argues that the efficacy and efficiency of the current condolence payment program could be greatly increased by adding Arab-Muslim mediation techniques tailored to Iraqi culture. Mediation would fill a gap in the current program to help foster a constructive, stabilizing dialogue between the U.S. military and aggrieved Iraqi civilians. The author believes that with each positive, mediated interaction — each reconciliative engagement between an aggrieved Iraqi civilian, a mediator, and a U.S. military representative — the U.S. military can prevent today's aggrieved Iraqi parent, sibling, or child from becoming tomorrow's insurgent.
This article was written with two goals. The implementation of a mediated condolence payment program, even on a limited or pilot basis, would likely increase the chances of American success in Iraq and improve the daily lives of Iraqi civilians. If it is not possible to implement such a program in Iraq before American involvement there ends, then it may still have value as an important component of the post-conflict nation-building playbook of the U.S. and other foreign forces.     

80年代以来美国贸易政策的演变及其启示

20世纪美国政策经历了从保护贸易到自由贸易 ,又从自由贸易到新贸易保护主义的转变过程。 80年代以后 ,在经济条件和政治压力下 ,美国政府选择了“自由且公平”贸易政策 ,其本质是美国从本国利益出发 ,选择最有利于自己的贸易政策。美国的“自由公平”贸易往往使其他国家遭受不公平的歧视 ,发展中国家受到的影响更大。贸易政策是一个国家政府所能够使用的重要战略性工具 ,分析美国贸易政策不仅有利于解决中美贸易摩擦。借鉴美国贸易政策 ,有利于增强我国通过合理的贸易政策保护本国的产业 ,维护国家的贸易利益和经济安全。     

International Relations and Policy Planning: The Method of Perspectivist Scenario Building

Since thoughts about the future cannot help but enter into our planning of policy, the International Relations community should make it an aim to help systematize these thoughts. One way of doing this is by developing a methodology for scenario building. Much extant work on scenario planning shares a key weakness that is well known in traditional socioeconomic planning, namely a tendency to reify current trends. In order to break with this tendency, this article sets out an approach that we call perspectivist scenario building. We also try to illustrate the points made and demonstrate the value added for planners by reflecting on our own experience in participation-oriented scenario work with Norwegian bureaucrats and politicians in the framework of a broad-scoped national scenario project for the Norwegian Government in the period between 1998 and 2001, called Norway 2030.