亚欧会议认知状况调查与分析

在亚欧会议进程10周年即将到来之际,课题组通过问卷调查、召开学术研讨会、高层访谈等方式,对中国公众、精英和决策层对亚欧会议的认知状况进行了调查,并在此基础上进行了分析。公众对亚欧会议了解程度不高,但普遍持积极评价的态度;精英群体认知较为复杂,包括正反两面,其中以批评意见居多;决策层对亚欧会议的认知体现出更多的发展眼光和长远意识。针对这些状况和问题,课题组建议亚欧会议在未来发展进程中,要加强机制化建设;拓宽合作领域,如能源、科技、教育等方面;推动亚欧两大洲人民之间的更多交流。     

关于学派批评的美学检视

近年来文学批评领域出现的一场学院派批评成败得失的争论,有其复杂多元的思想与时代背景,它是有意义的.但学院派批评尚非严格意义的学派批评,它存在的某些不足与缺陷,从理论美学上加以检视可知,要建设真正的学派批评必须解决好三个重要理论与认识问题.     

外交决策的微观认知视角--对杰维斯认知理论的几点评价和思考

杰维斯的《国际政治中的知觉与错误知觉》是运用认知理论从微观层次研究国际政治的重要著作。他引入了“知觉”这一心理学概念,探讨了知觉以及错觉因素对国际政治的影响,从而为人们打开了决策“黑匣子”的一个运作机制及过程。他的理论精致到细微之处,对于学术研究和外交决策实践具有很大的现实意义和借鉴意义。但是,像所有的理论一样,杰维斯的认知理论也有不足之处,本文将主要对此不足与局限作一梳理和评价,并提出一些建议和想法。     

俄罗斯对美国战略认知的演变及其政策效应

俄罗斯对美国战略认知的演变过程分为友好合作、竞争凸显和激烈对抗三个阶段。俄罗斯的强势外交和安全政策,表现为俄罗斯对美国和北约的强硬战略姿态以及追求超出自身相对实力的外交和安全目标。俄罗斯战略认知的演变与俄美两国的利益冲突之间有着相互塑造的关系,但是俄罗斯战略认知的变化并不仅仅取决于利益考量。俄罗斯之所以把北约东扩、乌克兰走向、叙利亚局势等看得如此重要,不惜投入大量资源,这是与塑造俄罗斯战略认知的历史和心理因素是分不开的。美国采取的许多对俄政策和行为,正是因为忽略了这些因素,才被俄罗斯看作是“侮辱性”和“威胁性”的,从而导致了双方敌意的螺旋式上升。由于俄罗斯独特的历史记忆和大国情结,俄罗斯对俄美两国的利益冲突作出了激烈的回应,这些回应虽然不利于俄罗斯的国家实力和整体利益,但却是可以理解的。随着俄罗斯对美战略认知的逐步定型,俄美关系在短期内很难实现所谓的“重启”。从俄罗斯对美战略认知的案例分析可以看出,战略认知自身有其相对的独立性,在受到利益冲突影响的同时,也受到社会文化因素的深刻影响,从而使得国家的外交与安全政策未必完全遵循理性主义的路径。     

地区治安危机感知模糊评价与预测

地区民众与警察在不同程度上都具有一个对治安状态的危机感知,这种意识的作用往往大于对统计数据的依赖。文章跳出传统犯罪统计与数据分析的研究框架,运用感知调查量表和模糊综合评价方法,对地区治安危机感知进行了分析与评价。首先建立了治安危机感知概念,并且确定了地区犯罪率和违法率的感知等级,然后,通过对某地区的感知问卷调查,得出了治安危机感知度,根据感知等级度与犯罪率与违法率对应数据区间的分析,得出了该地区治安危机感知的评价结果和预测结果。     

The Struggle For Baltic History

Low levels of social protection under the framework of neo-liberal ideology have characterized Baltic welfare regimes since the 1991 restoration of independence in these countries. The policies’ negative social consequences intensified during the years of austerity, 2007–2009. Although there have been trade union protests against the measures, these have been powerless and scattered. About 10% of the Latvian and Lithuanian workforce fled the country during the first decade of the 2000s, whereas an even greater proportion of the Estonian workforce has temporarily done so. In Albert O. Hirschman’s terms, “exit” occurs in the absence of “voice”. Moreover, disillusionment caused by deteriorating conditions and limited political choices generate a particular type of loyalty without a sense of influence.     

“I'm calling my mom”: The meaning of family and kinship among homegirls

This paper explores the relationships and experiences of a group of young Latina women. The material is drawn from an ongoing comparative qualitative study of ethnic youth gangs in the San Francisco Bay area. The information collected highlights the female gang members' complex relationships with their families, with one another, and with male counterparts. By focusing on the elaborate networks of support and strong attachments that women form, we suggest a reexamination of the relationships between family and gang in the gang members' lives.     

两岸政治互信的困境析论

两岸政治互信问题极其复杂,利益认知上的差异和冲突是根本原因;建立互信的过程,本质上就是追求利益重叠面、构建共同利益的过程。本文从利益认知与两岸互信的关系出发,先后讨论了“台独”势力、威慑战略、制度差异、台湾的“国际空间”、自信与互信的关系等重要因素与两岸互信之间的关系,其实也就是两岸互信面临的诸多困境,最后探讨了破解这些困境、建立两岸互信的根本途径。     

Political Consequences of Welfare Regimes: Social Assistance and Support for Presidentialism in Turkey

ABSTRACT

Tackling redistributive expansion in developing countries, this paper explores broader political consequences of social assistance programmes. Drawing from the Turkish case, where social welfare expanded since the 2000s, it examines attitudes of social assistance beneficiaries towards transition to presidentialism, which was approved in a referendum in 2017, and took effect in 2018. Using the results of an original survey, it indicates that social assistance benefits played a significant role in increasing support for presidentialism, by garnering votes from opposition voters, especially those with high-risk perceptions, in return for benefits. Given the character of Turkish presidentialism, devoid of vital checks and balances, the findings reveal that incumbents can mobilise support by using redistributive instruments in the context of democratic backsliding.     

Using typologies of victimization worry to create strategies for reducing fear of crime

The purpose of this paper is to develop actionable strategies designed for law enforcement agencies seeking to reduce fear of crime among those living within their jurisdictions. A conjunctive analysis of case configurations is conducted on data collected from residents living in southeast Queensland (Australia) (N = 713) in order to identify context-specific typologies of victimization worry. Main effects for each component of the typologies are examined in order to identify the impact each has on reducing negative attitudes towards crime. Current findings suggest that agencies will likely reduce fear of crime among community residents the most by focusing on decreasing concerns related to the consequences of victimization. Results are consistent for both crimes against persons and property offenses.