A Perspective on Errors,Bias, and Interpretation in the Forensic Sciences and Direction for Continuing Advancement*

Abstract: The forensic sciences are under review more so than ever before. Such review is necessary and healthy and should be a continuous process. It identifies areas for improvement in quality practices and services. The issues surrounding error, i.e., measurement error, human error, contextual bias, and confirmatory bias, and interpretation are discussed. Infrastructure is already in place to support reliability. However, more definition and clarity of terms and interpretation would facilitate communication and understanding. Material improvement across the disciplines should be sought through national programs in education and training, focused on science, the scientific method, statistics, and ethics. To provide direction for advancing the forensic sciences a list of recommendations ranging from further documentation to new research and validation to education and to accreditation is provided for consideration. The list is a starting point for discussion that could foster further thought and input in developing an overarching strategic plan for enhancing the forensic sciences.     

A Comparative Analysis and Evaluation of Specialist PPP Units’ Methodologies for Conducting Value for Money Appraisals

Governments throughout the world are turning to public?private partnerships (PPPs) as a means of providing new infrastructure. The decision to adopt a PPP over conventional government procurement is usually based on a value for money (VfM) appraisal, but this analysis is conducted differently in different countries. This article describes the correct way to conduct VfM analysis if the goal is to minimize the present value of the costs to the Treasury and if the goal is to maximize social welfare. It then compares the documented methodologies of nine specialist PPP units. It identifies four ways in which these methodologies depart from either of the correct approaches, and shows how each departure favors the PPP option. Finally, it shows how the UK approach might be augmented to determine the best value to society.     

Social explanations for job insecurity: Group influences on causal attributions

Job insecurity—a concern about the future existence of the job—is one of those unexpected events which lead to a search for causal explanations. This paper pays attention to the social nature of these attributions. The social character of the causal attribution process investigated here appears from the kind of attributions that employees make and the degree in which causal attributions are influenced by social ideas shared by colleagues and other groups. We research these social explanations for job insecurity on the basis of the results of a survey of job insecurity and causal attributions among 311 employees in the Netherlands.     

DRIVING WHILE BLACK: BIAS PROCESSES AND RACIAL DISPARITY IN POLICE STOPS*

We estimate the degree of racial disparity in police vehicular stops separately for local and state police in North Carolina in the year 2000. We introduce four mechanisms that might produce racial disparities in police stops—racial profiling, race sensitive police deployment, cognitive bias and stereotyping, and prejudice. We then model the relative odds of police vehicle stops as a function of race, driving behavior, and other demographic statuses separately by police organization type, with controls for omitted variable bias at both the driver and spatial level. We find only weak evidence of racial disparity in stops by officers of the state highway patrol but stronger evidence in those made by local police officers.     

A note on electoral competition and turnout in run-off electoral systems: Taking into account both endogeneity and attenuation bias

In this short note, I propose an identification strategy to estimate the causal effect of expected electoral competition on voter turnout in run-off systems taking into account both endogeneity and attenuation bias. I find that electoral competition significantly raises turnout. Not addressing attenuation bias yields estimates that are biased by up to 50%.     

澳大利亚联邦法院对专家证据的采纳

I. Introduction
The opinion evidence of experts is an exception to the general rule that witnesses can only give evidence of that which they have seen or heard and may not give evidence of inferences which arise from their observations and from that which they have heard.     

The Representation of Females in Criminological Research

Abstract

Content analysis of criminological research articles published in various American and British journals between 1895 and 1997 is used to assess concerns about the representation of females in the study of crime and delinquency. Findings reveal a severe and long-term underrepresentation of females in criminological research. This appears to be related to the tendency of numerically dominant male researchers to focus on male subjects. However, research on and about females has not been conducted primarily by female researchers nor has the focus of such research been mainly on such a “female” offense as prostitution. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

“Identified”, “probable”, “possible” or “exclude”: The influence of task-irrelevant information on forensic odontology identification opinion

In a mass disaster situation, identification of the deceased utilising comparison of dental features is frequently heavily relied upon to facilitate rapid and accurate outcomes. The method consists of the comparison of clinical and radiographic records depicting oral structures and dentition to allow an opinion to be produced on a presumed identity. Current forensic odontology identification opinions are expressed as categories of levels of identification. Categories such as “Identified”, “Probable”, “Possible” and “Exclude” are used in various forensic odontology identification scales. The boundaries between the levels of the scales are not fixed; hence, category selection is highly subjective. It is uncertain how extrinsic factors such as exposure to contextual task-irrelevant information or operator experience influence category selection. In this study, forensic odontologist and dentist participants read task-irrelevant context case information containing either strong or weak identification or non-identification suggestions before evaluating and comparing pairs of true matching and non-matching dental radiographs. They were then asked to form an opinion regarding identification using one of four categories from the INTERPOL scale. Context information was found to influence categorical decisions. The magnitude and direction of influence depended on the type of participant, the true match status of the radiographs, and the strength and direction of bias of the context. The results of this study demonstrate the contextual effect and fluidity of the boundaries between the categories on the identification scale and highlight the need for stringent protocols to be developed regarding the use of these categorical scales to enable decision making to be more objective.     

Race-Based Judgments, Race-Neutral Justifications: Experimental Examination of Peremptory Use and the Batson Challenge Procedure

Practically speaking, the peremptory challenge remained an inviolate jury selection tool in the United States until the Supreme Court's decision in Batson v. Kentucky. 476 U.S. 79 (1986). Batson's prohibition against race-based peremptories was based on two assumptions: (1) a prospective juror's race can bias jury selection judgments; (2) requiring attorneys to justify suspicious peremptories enables judges to determine whether a challenge is, indeed, race-neutral. The present investigation examines these assumptions through an experimental design using three participant populations: college students, advanced law students, and practicing attorneys. Results demonstrate that race does influence peremptory use, but these judgments are typically justified in race-neutral terms that effectively mask the biasing effects of race. The psychological processes underlying these tendencies are discussed, as are practical implications for the legal system.     

A Pragmatic Guide to Qualitative Historical Analysis in the Study of International Relations

Researchers using qualitative methods, including case studies and comparative case studies, are becoming more self–conscious in enhancing the rigor of their research designs so as to maximize their explanatory leverage with a small number of cases. One aspect of qualitative research that has not received as much attention is the use of primary and secondary source material as data or evidence. This essay explores the potential problems encountered by political scientists as they conduct archival research or rely on secondary source material produced by historians. The essay also suggests guidelines for researchers to minimize the main problems associated with qualitative historical research, namely, investigator bias and unwarranted selectivity in the use of historical source materials. These guidelines should enable advanced undergraduates and graduate students to enhance the quality of their historically minded political science scholarship.