Biased Sanctions? Methodological Change in Economic Sanctions Reconsidered and Its Implications

We investigate the influence of case selection and (re)coding for two vintages of a key resource for research on economic sanctions: the Peterson Institute database reported in Hufbauer et al. (second edition in 1990 and third edition in 2007, often identified by their abbreviations HSE and HSEO). The Peterson Institute has not transparently reported about these changes. These changes make it more likely to find sanction success. A multivariate probit analysis establishes upward bias related to modest policy change, duration, and cost to target and downward bias for regime change, military impairment, companion policies, and cost to the sender.     

Partisan Bias in Message Selection: Media Gatekeeping of Party Press Releases

Parties try to shape media coverage in ways that are favorable to them, but what determines whether media outlets pick up and report on party messages? Based on content analyses of 1,496 party press releases and 6,512 media reports from the 2013 Austrian parliamentary election campaign, we show that media coverage of individual party messages is influenced not just by news factors, but also by partisan bias. The media are therefore more likely to report on messages from parties their readers favor. Importantly, this effect is greater rather than weaker when these messages have high news value. These findings have important implications for understanding the media’s role in elections and representative democracies in general.     

Public Choice Failure and Voter Incompetence in France

This article explains failures of politics and government through the incompetence of voters and their perception biases. It illustrates this argument using the French case. If voters lack knowledge and develop irrational beliefs, then voting is probably not effective as a mechanism for sanctioning public policy. The incompetence of French voters and their anti‐capitalist bias is well documented. This incompetence can be partly explained by the low cost of holding irrational beliefs in politics. Voters’ anti‐capitalist attitudes are explained by the utility they obtain from expressing themselves in favour of state intervention, and by France's prohibitive level of justification costs of holding pro‐capitalist views. The resulting biases contribute to the failure of public choice.     

Faking performance together: systems of performance evaluation in Russian enforcement agencies and production of bias and privilege

A specialist on Russian law enforcement examines a critical source of prosecution and conviction bias in that country – the system by which prosecutors, police, judges, and other legal professionals are evaluated. More specifically, she demonstrates how that system (exclusive of any inherent corruption or bias) institutionalizes incentives for the prosecution of large numbers of defendants in routine cases for the purpose of meeting informal quotas. Officials from a variety of law enforcement agencies, seeking to “hit their numbers,” develop techniques of selecting the “right” cases (and avoiding “wrong” ones), manipulating charges depending on the victim's and defendant's statuses.     

Personal attributes and (mis)perceptions of local environmental risk

Individuals' risk perceptions shape their attitudes and behaviors, and to the extent that governments respond to public demands, they also influence public policy priorities. Conversely, risk misperceptions—that is, when risk perceptions do not align with realities—may lead to suboptimal behaviors and inefficient public policy. This study investigates the phenomena of environmental risk misperceptions. Specifically, with an original survey that enables a direct comparison of perceived and actual environmental risks at the local level, it examines the relationships between personal attributes and risk misperceptions. The findings show that individuals exhibit optimism bias in assessing local environmental risk. On average, people rank their communities as experiencing less risk from toxic air pollution than objective measures suggest. Moreover, Whites, males, conservatives, and older people tend to have larger optimism bias and have lower chances of possessing correct risk perceptions than their counterparts, respectively, while respondents who are married, poor, who go to church regularly, and have strong pro-environmental orientation, tend to have smaller optimism bias and have higher chances of possessing correct risk perceptions than their respective counterparts. The systematic misperception of local environmental risk underscores the importance of information provision and risk communication, and the sociopolitical correlates of misperception suggest that targeted and more nuanced strategies are required to correct misperceptions.