Priming Issues,Party Visibility,and Party Evaluations: The Impact on Vote Switching

Voter volatility has become a hallmark of Western democracies in the past three decades. At the same time short-term factors—such as the media’s coverage of issues, parties, and candidates during an election campaign—have become more important for voters’ decisions. While previous research did look at how campaign news in general affects electoral volatility in general, it has omitted to explicitly test the mechanisms underlying these effects. Building on theories of agenda setting, (affective) priming, and issue ownership, the current study aims to explain why certain news aspects lead voters to switch their vote choice. We theorize it is the visibility of a party, the evaluation of a party, and the attention for issues owned by a party that primes voters to switch to a certain party. We use national panel survey data (N = 765) and link this to an extensive content analysis of campaign news on television and in newspapers in the run up to the 2012 Dutch national elections. The results show that issue news leads to vote change in the direction of the party that owns the issue. Even stronger is the effect of party visibility on vote switching. Our results, however, find the strongest support for the effect of party evaluations on vote change: More favorable news about a party increases switching to that party.     

To Denounce,or Not To Denounce: Survey Experiments on Diplomatic Quarrels

Despite widespread concern over heated diplomatic debates and growing interest in public diplomacy, it is still incompletely understood what type of message is more effective for gaining support from foreign public, or the international society, in situations where disputing countries compete in diplomatic campaigns. This study, through multiple survey experiments, uncovers the effect of being silent, issuing positive justification, and negative accusation, in interaction with the opponent’s strategy. We demonstrate that negative verbal attacks “work” and undermine the target’s popularity as they do in electoral campaigns. Unlike domestic electoral campaigns, however, negative diplomacy has little “backlash” and persuades people to support the attacker. Consequently, mutual verbal fights make neither party more popular than the other. Nevertheless, this does not discourage disputants from waging verbal fights due to the structure similar to the one-shot prisoner’s dilemma. We also find that positive messages are highly context-dependent—that is, their effects greatly depend on the opponent’s strategy and value proximity between the messenger and the receiver.     

Campaigning on behalf of the party? Party constraints on candidate campaign personalisation

This article analyses what makes political candidates run a party‐focused or personalised election campaign. Prior work shows that candidates face incentives from voters and the media to personalise their campaign rhetoric and promises at the expense of party policy. This has raised concerns about the capacity of parties to govern effectively and voters’ ability to hold individual politicians accountable. This article builds on the literature on party organisation and considers the possible constraints candidates face from their party in personalising their election campaigns. Specifically, it is argued that party control over the candidate nomination process and campaign financing constrains most political candidates in following electoral incentives for campaign personalisation. Using candidate survey data from the 2009 EP election campaign in 27 countries, the article shows how candidates from parties in which party officials exerted greater control over the nomination process and campaign finances were less likely to engage in personalised campaigning at the expense of the party programme. The findings imply that most parties, as central gatekeepers and resource suppliers, hold important control mechanisms for countering the electoral pressure for personalisation and advance our understanding of the incentives and constraints candidates face when communicating with voters. The article discusses how recent democratic reforms, paradoxically, might induce candidate personalisation with potential negative democratic consequences.     

南京大屠杀遇难人口的构成——以南京市常住人口为中心

在南京大屠杀期间,侵华日军在南京城乡地区进行了大规模的屠杀.南京大屠杀刚结束,金陵大学美国社会学教授史密斯以社会救济为主要目的对南京及周边县城进行了十分广泛的社会调查;战后国民政府为了调查战争损失和东京与南京法庭的战犯审判进行了专题调查.两次调查结果显示:在南京市常住人口中,97%以上遇难者是平民,男性遇难者比例远远高于女性.其中乡区女性遇害比例则高于城区.遇难者中80%-90%是20至60岁的青壮年,而在乡区60岁以上老人死亡比例超过了20%.随着大量第一手资料的不断整理出版,将会极大地推动南京大屠杀研究的深入.     

慢性疼痛与残疾评定——以《永久性残损评定指南》为背景

疼痛是一种具有感觉、情感、认知和社会成分的不愉快经历,慢性疼痛可对个体日常生活造成影响.本文以美国《永久性残损评定指南》为背景,对慢性疼痛的概念、神经机制、生物-心理-社会模型及负面影响进行概述,并简要介绍了《永久性残损评定指南》第6版中疼痛伤残评定的原则、方法及争议等内容.以期为慢性疼痛纳入我国残疾评定体系提供方向与...     

论仲裁规则的性质及其与仲裁法之间的关系

仲裁规则是规定如何通过仲裁的方法解决当事人之间争议的程序性规则。仲裁适用的规则既可以由当事人约定,也可以由仲裁机构或者相关的国际经济贸易组织制定。仲裁规则的本质是契约性,仅在当事人选择适用的情况下对相关当事人或者仲裁机构(庭)具有法律上的拘束力。当事人也可在不违反相关国家有关强制性法律规则的情况下对他们选择适用的仲裁规则进行修订。国家的仲裁法所规范的是在该国境内进行的一切仲裁活动,无须当事人对此做出选择。仲裁法还是仲裁规则的重要补充。如果当事人或者仲裁规则未能对争议事项作出规定或规定不明确的,可以通过相关国家的国内仲裁立法加以补充与完善。由于仲裁规则与仲裁法在本质上的不同,决定了它们在适应范围和法律效力上的不同。     

The 2019 Portuguese general elections

Abstract

The 2019 Portuguese general elections have led to the formation of another minority government of the Socialist Party. Right-wing parties suffered a resounding defeat. The election had two key consequences. First, after four years of contract parliamentarism with an extreme-left party, the Socialists returned to their historical position of pivotal party in the system. Socialist leader Costa refused to replicate alliances with parties to his left. Second, the 2019 election witnessed the emergence of three new parties, Chega, Iniciativa Liberal and Livre. The election of Chega marks a watershed moment in Portuguese democratic history, as for the first time an extreme-right populist party has gained representation in the country.     

以民主促民生——以太原市“向人民汇报·请人民评议”活动为例

民主是保障民生的重要手段,只有民主得到落实,个人的权利和利益才能得到保证。2012年2月太原市开展的＂向人民汇报.请人民评议＂活动,群众发动之广、参与人数之多、社会影响之大、整体效果之好为近年来所罕见。该评议活动创新了人民当家作主的实现形式,实现了民主广度和深度的均衡、协商民主与远程民主的互动、程序民主和实质民主的统一,为社会主义民主政治建设提供了新的路径。     

A test of the differential accuracy of the maxillary versus the mandibular dentition in age estimations of immature skeletal remains based on developing tooth length

Liversidge and colleagues developed a method for predicting the age of immature skeletal remains based on the length of developing teeth. This quantitative method combines dental data from both jaws, except for the permanent lateral incisor, and because there are reasons to suspect that these two types of data are not identical and should not be combined, it raises concerns regarding the accuracy of the technique when applied differently to each jaw. In this study, the differential accuracy of the method was test when applied to the maxillary and mandibular dentition. The test sample is comprised of 57 Portuguese subadult skeletons of known age at death. Results suggest an overall high consistency between estimates obtained from both jaws, but for the permanent dentition only. In the deciduous dentition the age estimates obtained from the maxillary teeth tend to be greater than the age estimates obtained from the mandibular pair, and the differences are significant for the incisors and canine. Additionally, ages obtained from the maxillary deciduous canine also differ significantly from true chronological age. In the permanent dentition there were no differences between the ages provided by both jaws but both the maxillary and mandibular second molars show a significant tendency to underestimate true chronological age. Although this study cannot validate completely the method presented by Liversidge and colleagues, it does provide an important test to its accuracy and calls for further research into its overall performance, particularly with respect to the results obtained from both jaws.     

Newspaper Coverage of Three Presidential Campaigns in Chile: Personalisation and Political Strategies

We investigate the evolution of political campaign coverage through a content analysis of the topics highlighted in newspapers' agendas during three presidential elections in Chile. Results show an expected increase in the space allocated to the politicians' private lives (privatisation) by 2009, but no change in the attention given to individual politicians' political traits (political competence). Coverage of candidates' campaign strategies had increased markedly in media agendas by 1999, and by 2009 in politicians' agendas. These changes are consistent with some of the recent transformations of political communication in Western democracies, within the framework of the so‐called ‘mediatisation’ of politics.