唐诗英译发轫期主要文本辨析

中国唐诗的英文译介是19世纪中期以后才开始出现于欧美各国的文化传播现象.在此传播的过程中,旅华传教士和驻华外交官群体中的汉学家贡献尤多.其中戴维斯的<汉文诗解>有特殊的价值,弗莱彻的<英译唐诗选>则是截至目前为止发现的最早的英译唐诗专著.我国学术界对早期英译唐诗的文本和译者研究尚处于起步阶段,其间的某些误读尚有待辨析和厘清.     

SELECTIVE INCAPACITATION,THREE STRIKES,AND THE PROBLEM OF AGING PRISON POPULATIONS: USING SIMULATION MODELING TO SEE THE FUTURE*

Research Summary: The growth of prison populations over the last three decades is a great source of concern for policy makers and observers. One mechanism by which this growth occurs is via sentencing reforms that extend length of stay for certain categories of offenders. This has the effect of aging prison populations, which is problematic for many reasons. Apart from the increased financial burdens entailed in caring for older prisoners, it is also important to consider the intent of reforms in evaluating them. Of late, sentencing reform has become increasingly focused on the selective incapacitation of dangerous offenders. Policies that have the effect of aging the prison population are problematic from this perspective due to the diminishing returns realized with respect to incapacitation as offenders age. Dynamic systems simulation analysis is employed to investigate the likely consequences of recent sentencing reforms that increase length of stay for some offenders. These analyses indicate that the effects of recent reforms may not be as dramatic as some observers have predicted, but they suggest that the consideration of alternatives to incarceration for elderly offenders is warranted from the standpoint of cost considerations as well as that of selective incapacitation. Policy Implications: The results indicate that California's Three Strikes law will not accelerate the rate of growth of the elderly prison population. However, even without increasing the proportional representation of elderly prisoners, the number of elderly prisoners is expected to grow substantially over the next three decades. These prisoners will strain criminal justice system resources while presenting little public safety threat. State criminal justice policy makers and their constituents should closely examine laws that impose very long stays without discretionary release, as these statutes may contribute to the production of elderly prisoners. This problem is particularly pronounced in Three Strikes and other habitual offender laws that use retrospective methods to identify habitual offenders. Additionally, the effects of reforms lengthening stay for some offenders must be considered in light of cumulative effects of sentencing reform resulting in changes to the demographic structure of the prison population overall. Dynamic systems simulation modeling is presented as a valuable policy‐making tool, as it allows the policy analyst to examine the potential impacts of laws in the absence of data suitable for conventional statistical analyses.     

李大钊早期政治思想与民国初年中国政治

李大钊早期政治思想的形成和发展是与民国初年中国政治的演变密切联系的。1912年成立的中华民国确立了共和体制，是中国代议制政治的开端，为中国政党政治的推行创造了条件。在此前提下，李大钊就民国的政治建设走上政治现代化的轨道、发展和完善代议制政治、实现真正的政党政治、推进政治民主化等一系列问题作了深刻的思考，从而形成了富有特色的早期民主政治思想。     

谈早期脊纹在检验鉴定中的应用

早期脊纹存在于正常的、发育完全的摩擦脊纹中间,狭窄呈条状,达不到正常脊纹的高度且无毛孔结构。早期脊纹在比对中的价值要依赖于脊纹结构的清晰程度。鉴定过程就是要求鉴定人员在清晰可见的结构中寻找细节特征。对于不很清晰的早期脊纹来讲,只能将它看作是存在于脊纹之间的脊纹形态。     

STRUCTURAL FACTORS AND BLACK INTERRACIAL HOMICIDE: A NEW EXAMINATION OF THE CAUSAL PROCESS*

This study evaluates the assumption that deprivation among African Americans and racial inequality lead to black interracial homicide due to racial conflict and antagonism. Using refined race‐adjusted Supplemental Homicide Report data, Uniform Crime Report data and census data, we test an alternative hypothesis that draws on the macrostructural opportunity theory to assess and more accurately specify the relationship between structural characteristics and black interracial homicide. We find that first, the relationship between economic factors and black interracial homicide can be explained in large part by high rates of financially motivated crime such as robbery, and second, that economic factors are associated with financially motivated but not expressive black interracial killings. Analyses of black intraracial killings are performed for comparison purposes. Collectively, the findings suggest that conflict‐based explanations rooted in racial antagonism and frustration aggression may be premature.     

发展的新阶段与新思路

发展是我们党执政兴国的第一要务。新世纪,我国正进入发展的新阶段,供求关系、体制环境、对外开放、社会发展都发生了新的重大变化,提出了新的发展要求。新阶段,发展要有新思路,要寻求发展的新道路、新结构、新方式、新主体,不断开创现代化建设的新局面。     

Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method

In recent years, a widespread consensus has emerged about the necessity of establishing bridges between quantitative and qualitative approaches to empirical research in political science. In this article, we discuss the use of the synthetic control method as a way to bridge the quantitative/qualitative divide in comparative politics. The synthetic control method provides a systematic way to choose comparison units in comparative case studies. This systematization opens the door to precise quantitative inference in small‐sample comparative studies, without precluding the application of qualitative approaches. Borrowing the expression from Sidney Tarrow, the synthetic control method allows researchers to put “qualitative flesh on quantitative bones.” We illustrate the main ideas behind the synthetic control method by estimating the economic impact of the 1990 German reunification on West Germany.     

Residential Aged Care Policy in Australia – Are We Learning from Evidence?

The residential aged care industry in Australia will expand rapidly over the next 10 years leading to substantial increases in government expenditure. Recent and future reforms are likely leading to changes in the structure of the industry with a potential impact on quality of care. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate broader public debate, based on the available evidence, about the preferred structure of this important industry. It examines the literature on the impact structure has on the quality of services and compares this with a fresh analysis of current trends. The paper argues that future policy should be evidence based and explicit about the structure of the industry that will emerge from current policy reforms.