评贝叶斯方法对概率逻辑的继承和发展

贝叶斯方法是以概率演算定理即贝叶斯定理为核心的概率归纳逻辑。贝叶斯方法在古典概率和现代概率逻辑的概率解释基础上,将主观性引入逻辑,遵守概率的主观解释和以贝叶斯定理为主要依托的推理模式,其强大的意见收敛定理则将主观性一步步约束至客观性的道路上来,但条件化原则的归纳性质,也使得其不得不进行长期的艰难的辩护。     

乡村社会研究的难题与话语群的观察对策

话语群理论是在传统的乡村研究理论遇到一系列难题之后应运而生的,是对我国乡村研究中的长期模式,即关于乡村社会"传统—现代"的二元分割结构认知模式的突破,也是基于西方语言学方法遇到自身困惑,即语境建构出现泛滥趋势的基础之上提出来的。     

高校基层党支部书记工作方法探讨

高校基层党支部书记应按照科学发展观的要求,通过典型示范、多办实事、抓中心、协调支部班子、掌握思想工作艺术、运用"弹钢琴"以及用人技巧等手段,不断改进工作方法,提高领导艺术,就能在中国特色社会主义理论体系指导下,全面贯彻落实科学发展观,率领广大师生为夺取全面建设小康社会新胜利,推进中国特色社会主义伟大事业做出更大贡献。     

论两个“民主集中制”及二者的关系

中国共产党的党建理论中的“民主集中制”概念有两个层面的含义,一个是作为组织原则、组织制度的民主集中制,一个是作为领导方法、工作方法的民主集中制,前者是后者的前提和基础,后者是前者的补充和延伸,二者相辅相成,相得益彰;前者是俄国共产党人列宁的创造,后者是中国共产党人的贡献。     

论涂尔干社会学方法从实证主义方法向辩证法的转变——兼论其大学研究的特殊理论意义

涂尔干为社会学奠定了两项方法论原则:将社会事实当作物来考察的“观察社会事实的准则”;分别研究社会事实之原因和功能的“解释社会事实的准则”。然而,在他的大学研究过程中,社会学方法论的性质明显地从实证主义方法向辩证法转变。在他看来,大学是典型的社会学研究对象;鉴于大学的本质是人类批判反思能力发展的场所,而不仅仅是科学发展的场所,所以,社会学研究需要超越科学实证的方法,继承和发展西方传统的“辩证理性”方法。     

How important are interview methods and questionnaire designs in research on self-reported juvenile delinquency? An experimental comparison of Internet vs paper-and-pencil questionnaires and different definitions of the reference period

There has been relatively little change over recent decades in the methods used in research on self-reported delinquency. Face-to-face interviews and self-administered interviews in the classroom are still the predominant alternatives envisaged. New methods have been brought into the picture by recent computer technology, the Internet, and an increasing availability of computer equipment and Internet access in schools. In the autumn of 2004, a controlled experiment was conducted with 1,203 students in Lausanne (Switzerland), where “paper-and-pencil” questionnaires were compared with computer-assisted interviews through the Internet. The experiment included a test of two different definitions of the (same) reference period. After the introductory question (“Did you ever...”), students were asked how many times they had done it (or experienced it), if ever, “over the last 12 months” or “since the October 2003 vacation”. Few significant differences were found between the results obtained by the two methods and for the two definitions of the reference period, in the answers concerning victimisation, self-reported delinquency, drug use, failure to respond (missing data). Students were found to be more motivated to respond through the Internet, take less time for filling out the questionnaire, and were apparently more confident of privacy, while the school principals were less reluctant to allow classes to be interviewed through the Internet. The Internet method also involves considerable cost reductions, which is a critical advantage if self-reported delinquency surveys are to become a routinely applied method of evaluation, particularly so in countries with limited resources. On balance, the Internet may be instrumental in making research on self-reported delinquency far more feasible in situations where limited resources so far have prevented its implementation.

The Effect of Vertebral Numerical Variation on Anatomical Stature Estimates

Abstract: Most humans possess 24 presacral vertebrae composed of seven cervicals, 12 thoracics, and five lumbars. However, variation from this standard pattern exists. The purpose of this study was to test the effect of congenital vertebral numerical variation on anatomical stature estimates and to recommend appropriate procedures when such variation occurs. Our sample consists of 41 individuals with unusual vertebral count patterns and known cadaveric statures from the Smithsonian’s Terry Collection. Raxter et al. published a revised Fully anatomical technique in 2006 and we used this to estimate living stature. Based on our results, we recommend using the standard anatomical technique to reconstruct stature, regardless of vertebral pattern. However, when an individual possesses six sacral segments together with a normal number of presacral vertebrae, we recommend the addition of a slight correction factor of 1.3 cm or 0.8% of estimated stature.     

Personal Identification Using the Frontal Sinus*

Abstract: The frontal sinuses are known to be unique to each individual; however, no one has tested the independence of the frontal sinus traits to see if probability analysis through trait combination is a viable method of identifying an individual using the frontal sinuses. This research examines the feasibility of probability trait combination, based on criteria recommended in the literature, and examines two other methods of identification using the frontal sinuses: discrete trait combinations and superimposition pattern matching. This research finds that most sinus traits are dependent upon one another and thus cannot be used in probability combinations. When looking at traits that are independent, this research finds that metric methods are too fraught with potential errors to be useful. Discrete trait combinations do not have a high enough discriminating power to be useful. Only superimposition pattern matching is an effective method of identifying an individual using the frontal sinuses.     

Free Fatty Acids Composition in Adipocere of the Kwäday Dän Ts’ìnchí Ancient Remains Found in a Glacier*

Abstract: Adipocere is a postmortem decomposition product consisting of mostly a mixture of free fatty acids (FFAs) that are formed because of the hydrolysis of triglycerides in adipose tissues. This article describes a simple and robust method for the extraction, identification, and quantification of FFA commonly found in adipocere using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC/MS). This method was applied to analyze tissues from Kwäday Dän Ts’ìnchí, ancient remains discovered in a retreating glacier in the Tatshenshini‐Alsek Park, British Columbia, Canada in August 1999. The lyophilized tissues were grinded and extracted with hexane. The trimethylsilyl fatty acid derivatives were analyzed by GC/MS, and the relative abundances of myristic acid, palmitic acid, oleic acid, and stearic acid were determined. Milligram per gram levels of saturated fatty acids were found in the tissues of the ancient remains, while the levels of unsaturated fatty acids, such as palmitoleic acid, were found to be negligible. The results provided further evidence of the existence of adipocere found during forensic examination of the Kwäday Dän Ts’ìnchí ancient remains.     

DNase-Ⅰ纯化结合碱性裂解法提取混合斑精子DNA

目的研究脱氧核糖核酸酶I(DNase-I)纯化结合碱性裂解法提取混合斑精子DNA的方法在法医学中的应用。方法收集79份性犯罪案件混合斑检材,分别用DNase-I纯化结合碱性裂解法和差异裂解法提取精子DNA,采用STR荧光标记复合扩增体系进行16个STR基因座分型,并比较检验结果。结果应用DNase-I纯化结合碱性裂解法提取精子DNA,64例检材分型成功;应用差异裂解法提取精子DNA,57例检材分型成功;两种方法比较结果存在显著性差异(P=0.039),DNase-1纯化结合碱性裂解法提取精子DNA的STR分型成功率更高,成本低廉。结论DNase-I纯化结合碱性裂解法提取混合斑精子DNA可提高检验成功率,操作简便,快速,易于自动化,适于法医学个体识别鉴定。