Object-oriented Bayesian networks for paternity cases with allelic dependencies

This study extends the current use of Bayesian networks by incorporating the effects of allelic dependencies in paternity calculations. The use of object-oriented networks greatly simplify the process of building and interpreting forensic identification models, allowing researchers to solve new, more complex problems. We explore two paternity examples: the most common scenario where DNA evidence is available from the alleged father, the mother and the child; a more complex case where DNA is not available from the alleged father, but is available from the alleged father’s brother. Object-oriented networks are built, using HUGIN, for each example which incorporate the effects of allelic dependence caused by evolutionary relatedness.     

反腐倡廉制度重在有效管用

制定完善的制度,对反腐倡廉具有十分重要的意义。抓好制度的落实,增强制度的有效性,更应摆上重要的工作日程。当前的反腐倡廉制度存在数量与质量失衡、创新与配套脱节、实体与执行落差、设计与效果偏离等问题,因此制度建设应做到科学严谨、保持相对稳定、注重求真务实、优化执行环境。只有与时俱进体现针对性,研究规律把握前瞻性,通盘谋划讲求系统性,狠抓执行突出时效性,提升层次发挥权威性,才能使反腐倡廉制度真正做到有效管用。     

Survival analysis: A survey

This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.     

What can deliberative mini-publics contribute to democratic systems?

Can deliberative mini-publics contribute to deepening the democratic dimensions of electoral democracies? The question is framed in this article using a problem-based approach to democratic theory–to count as democratic, political systems must accomplish three basic functions related to inclusion, communication and deliberation, and decision making. This approach is elaborated with an analysis of a real-world case: a deliberative mini-public with a citizens’ assembly design, focused on urban planning convened in Vancouver, Canada. This example was chosen because the context was one in which the city's legacy institutions of representative democracy had significant democratic deficits in all three areas, and the mini-public was a direct response to these deficits. It was found that Vancouver's deliberative mini-public helped policy makers, activists and affected residents move a stalemated planning process forward, and did do so in ways that improved the democratic performance of the political system. Depending on when and how they are sequenced into democratic processes, deliberative mini-publics can supplement existing legacy institutions and practices to deepen their democratic performance.     

Deconstructing competing courtroom narratives: representation of social actors

Underpinned by the assumption that the import of the facts and the law in the courtroom depends on how they are invoked and (re)presented mainly through language use by courtroom interactants, this functional linguistic study critically scrutinizes representation strategies that opposing lawyers use to position social actors in their narratives, integrating Halliday’s concept of transitivity and van Leeuwen’s inventory of social actor representation. The findings reveal that the two sides consistently exhibit contrasting discursive practices, and that referential choices and grammatical positioning constitute major semiotic resources that work in concert to construct different identities and alternate realities, and negotiate interpretations of the guilt and innocence of the defendant and the victims. Social actor representation, it is argued, constitutes an important contingency bearing on the outcome of this institutional discourse. Such resources are deeply intertwined with each presenter’s underlying ideologies in this institutional discourse.     

Why are the affluent better represented around the world?

Scholars have discovered remarkable inequalities in who gets represented in electoral democracies. Around the world, the preferences of the rich tend to be better represented than those of the less well-off. In this paper, we use the most comprehensive comparative dataset of unequal representation available to answer why the poor are underrepresented. By leveraging variation over time and across countries, we study which factors explain why representation is more unequal in some places than in others. We compile a number of covariates examined in previous studies and use machine learning to describe which mechanisms best explain the data. Globally, we find that economic conditions and good governance are most important in determining the extent of unequal representation, and we find little support for hypotheses related to political institutions, interest groups or political behaviour, such as turnout. These results provide the first broadly comparative explanations for unequal representation.     

对“一国两制”提出的实际根据和理论依据的思考

"一国两制"构想不是一天形成的,也不是偶然提出的,更不是凭空想出来的.它是在党的十一届三中全会以后,邓小平同志从我国社会发展的客观需要出发提出的."一国两制"构想的提出有着充分的实际根据和可靠的理论依据,是理论与实际的紧密结合.     

论职工董事、监事制度与职工代表大会制度的关系

国有企业改革把职工代表大会制度与职工董事、监事制度内在地联系在一起。这两种制度相互关系的实质是职工董事、监事与职工劳动者的相互关系。在运用这两种制度时 ,可以通过政策中介和制度创新等 ,使其更好地实现职工劳动者和企业出资者的产权权益。     

REEVALUATING WHERE WE STAND: A COMPREHENSIVE SURVEY OF AMERICA'S FAMILY JUSTICE SYSTEMS

The call for court reform remains critical in the face of the growing complexity of burgeoning family law cases nationwide. Many states have restructured their court systems using the unified family court model, resolving legal, personal, emotional, and social disputes with the aim of improving the well‐being of families and children. Other states utilize the traditional approach, resulting in cases being handled in a fragmented, time‐consuming and expensive manner. In this article, Professor Barbara A. Babb presents the results of her nationwide survey regarding how each state handles family law matters. The survey is a follow‐up to her comprehensive 1998 survey and her 2002 survey update. The results of the recent analysis reveal that a total of thirty‐eight states now have either statewide family courts, family courts in selected areas of the state, or pilot or planned family courts, representing seventy‐five percent of states. The number of states without a specialized or separate system to handle family law matters has decreased from seventeen states in 1998 to thirteen in 2006. These changes are significant when one considers the complexities involved in court reform. The need for court reform remains an urgent one, as family law cases occupy a significant percentage of court dockets across the country. Families and children deserve a court system where justice is effective and efficient and where their legal, personal, emotional, and social needs are resolved in a therapeutic and holistic manner.     

Scenario study of biometric systems at borders

This paper examines and compares the existing privacy instruments of VIS and US-VISIT systems in addressing the specific legal issues and challenging the privacy-invasive behaviour in the world of biometrics. A biometric scenario is presented to give a vision of a future society in 5 years from now when biometric technology is more widely used. The objective here is to open up the scope of considering the potential legal risks of the use of biometrics, based upon the present passport and visa application plans in the EU and USA.