Effects of Testimonial Inconsistencies and Eyewitness Confidence on Mock-Juror Judgments

This study examined the interaction between testimonial consistency and eyewitness confidence on mock-jurors' judgments of probability that the defendant committed the crime and verdicts. In a 2 (testimonial consistency) × 2 (confidence) between-groups design, 130 mock-jurors listened to an audio-taped trial of a person charged with armed robbery. Manipulations were contained in the prosecution witness's responses to detailed questioning by prosecution and defense attorneys. Although consistency is considered to be a key marker of accuracy, its impact on judgments was weak and nonsignificant. Witness confidence had a strong influence on judgments, whether testimony was consistent or inconsistent. We suggested that witness confidence may be more likely to emerge as a dominant influence on juror judgments when the testimony is wide ranging rather than relatively brief and concerned only with a specific issue (e.g., identification confidence).     

微观经济学的结构分析

微观经济学是高等学校经济管理专业的核心课程之一。它具有内容抽象、结构复杂、模型众多等特点,成为初学者学习该课程的难点。理性人的假设条件是微观经济学的基本假设,因此分析微观经济学的结构框架,应从理性人的假设出发,这样才能更好地理解微观经济学。微观经济学的有关理论如消费者行为、厂商行为、市场行为等都是建立在理性人的假设基础之上的。     

行政决策中的公民参与研究

公民参与行政决策并不是替代行政机关作出决策，而是为了促成行政决策科学化和民主化，使行政决策日益成为一种社会化行为。当前我国行政决策中公共参与机制存在严重缺陷，决定中无法吸纳公众的意见，在我国要真正实现行政决策的民主化与科学化，就必须在行政决策过程中建立起一套科学的行之有效的制度保障机制。     

Metric Sex Determination of the Human Coxal Bone on a Virtual Sample using Decision Trees

Decision trees provide an alternative to multivariate discriminant analysis, which is still the most commonly used in anthropometric studies. Our study analyzed the metric characterization of a recent virtual sample of 113 coxal bones using decision trees for sex determination. From 17 osteometric type I landmarks, a dataset was built with five classic distances traditionally reported in the literature and six new distances selected using the two-step ratio method. A ten-fold cross-validation was performed, and a decision tree was established on two subsamples (training and test sets). The decision tree established on the training set included three nodes and its application to the test set correctly classified 92% of individuals. This percentage was similar to the data of the literature. The usefulness of decision trees has been demonstrated in numerous fields. They have been already used in sex determination, body mass prediction, and ancestry estimation. This study shows another use of decision trees enabling simple and accurate sex determination.     

Streams and stages: Reconciling Kingdon and policy process theory

Use of metaphors is a staple feature of how we understand policy processes – none more so than the use of ‘policy stages’/'cycles’ and ‘multiple streams’. Yet even allowing for the necessary parsimony of metaphors, the former is often criticised for its lack of ‘real world’ engagement with agency, power, ideology, turbulence and complexity, while the latter focuses only on agenda‐setting but at times has been utilised, with limited results, to understand later stages of the policy process. This article seeks to explore and advance the opportunities for combining both and applying them to the policy‐formation and decision‐making stages of policy making. In doing so it examines possible three, four and five stream models. It argues that a five stream confluence model provides the highest analytical value because it retains the simplicity of metaphors (combining elements of two of the most prominent models in policy studies) while also helping capture some of the more complex and subtle aspects of policy processes, including policy styles and nested systems of governance.     

Theoretically refining the multiple streams framework: An introduction

This introduction to the forum section on the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) developed by John W. Kingdon argues that the conditions under which policy making takes place today increasingly resemble the assumptions upon which Kingdon built his lens. At the same time, while the framework is extremely successful with regard to citations and has been applied in various contexts that often differ remarkably from those for which the framework was originally developed, a systematic theoretical debate about the Multiple Streams Framework is still lacking. It is the intention to spark such a debate with this forum section.     

Straightening the three streams: Theorising extensions of the multiple streams framework

This article suggests theoretical refinements to the multiple streams framework (MSF) that make it applicable to parliamentary systems and the decision‐making stage of the policy process. Regarding the former, the important role of political parties in parliamentary democracies is highlighted. Party policy experts are expected to be members of the policy communities in the policy stream and to promote viable policy alternatives in their respective parties, while the party leadership is concerned with adopting policies in the political stream. With regard to the latter, the introduction of a second coupling process to analyse decision making more rigorously is suggested. Moreover, the article provides operational definitions of the framework's key concepts when applied to parliamentary systems and derives a systematic set of falsifiable hypotheses for agenda‐setting and decision making in these systems, thus addressing one of the main critiques against the MSF – namely that no hypotheses can be derived from it.     

有限理性视野下侦查风险决策研究

侦查决策的正确与否直接关系到侦查工作的成败,在侦查工作中具有举足轻重的作用.侦查决策的对象是刑事案件,且在决策过程中要受到侦查决策主体、决策路径、案件具体情况、决策压力等多方面因素的影响,是一种有限理性基础上的风险决策.针对风险决策,必然需要有一定的评价标准来衡量侦查决策,以期保证侦查决策更加准确,更能够实现侦查工作的最终目的.     

论非法民事公民代理的理性规制

非法民事公民代理是指不具有法律、法规授权资格,或者伪造法律、法规授权资格的普通公民担任民事诉讼代理人并参加诉讼活动的行为.非法民事公民代理占据着我国基层法律服务市场相当大的份额,但其不能切实保障当事人的合法权益,还会损害司法公正和司法效率、危害社会稳定、扰乱正规的法律服务市场和阻碍司法改革的进程.制度设计理念、社会需求、法律规定和操作运行四方面的原因促成了非法民事公民代理的产生和存续,具体的改进举措应在这四个方面予以对应性的展开.     

Types of knowledge utilization of regulatory impact assessments: Evidence from Swiss policymaking

Ex ante policy appraisals, such as Regulatory Impact Assessments (RIAs), are promoted because they are expected to inform decisionmakers and, thus, to lead to better quality regulation. Such instrumental use is not the only possible use of RIAs. Ex ante policy appraisal can affect the policy process in various ways. However, a consolidated theory on the conditions for utilization of RIAs in the policy process has yet to be developed. In order to explore these conditions, we analyze three case studies of Swiss decisionmaking processes and apply concepts from knowledge utilization literature. In conclusion, we find that policy arenas matter more than the institutional context and design of RIA procedures. In line with previous literature, political use seems to be a prevalent type of utilization. Yet we find that, under specific conditions, RIAs also provide a basis for the optimization of policy designs (instrumental use), help improve interagency relations (policy‐process use), and may change how a policy issue is understood (conceptual use).