The Sino–Japanese territorial dispute and threat perception in power transition

A territorial dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands has gained a high profile in Sino–Japanese relations. Since the 2012 escalation of the territorial dispute, there is no sign of any de-escalation despite economic interdependence, which previously helped ease the tension. Drawing on the constructivist understanding of threat perception and power transition theory, this article analyzes the way in which the deepening of threat perceptions associated with a perceived regional power transition prevents Japan and China from working beyond their subjective conceptions of justice associated with boarders and history. Since 2012, the Sino–Japanese territorial dispute has increasingly fitted into a larger picture of power-political conflict taking place in a power transition in which both Japan and China aim to return to ‘normality’ by propagating their territorial claims, strengthening their military capabilities, and strategic realignment. To that end, this article first introduces a theoretical framework on the centrality of threat perceptions in power transition. Second, it traces the ways in which Japan and China have developed a threat perception of each other since 1972. The third section deals with the escalation of the Sino–Japanese territorial dispute since 2010 and highlights the deepening of mutual suspicion and threat perception exemplified at the bilateral and multilateral levels. I conclude that the Sino–Japanese territorial debate entered a new stage of normative and power-political competition in earning international support for territorial claims in the East China Sea.     

Realignment Postponed? Political Continuity and Change in the North Eastern Suburbs

For decades, the politics of the North East and its suburbs have been frozen. Ever since the decline of the Tories in the region in the 1980s, it has served as a ‘solid North’ for Labour, but recent evidence suggests that this might well be changing. North Eastern suburbs have suffered because of the emphasis that has been placed on regenerating city centres, and the suburbs in the region haven't been immune to the economic dislocation that emerged from deindustrialisation in the 1970s and 1980s. They have also been impacted by the banking crash and, in particular, the collapse of Northern Rock. They have also seen growing political disengagement and a diminution of affection with the Labour party. All these factors contributed to many suburbs in the North East supporting Brexit in 2016. Talk of a realignment at the 2017 election was over‐egged, however, as the Conservatives failed to understand some of the key drivers of voting behaviour in the region. All evidence suggests that the North East is entering a period of more competitive politics and political parties that show greater ambition for the region and its economy will be in a strong position to take advantage of this.