论声纹鉴定意见的表述形式

本文针对目前国内外讨论比较热烈的声纹鉴定意见表述问题进行了评述.首先介绍了实践中正在使用的听觉分析法、声谱比对分析法、声学分析法、听觉-声学分析法和说话人自动识别五种鉴定方法,指出了各种方法的优缺点;然后对现存的二元判决、可能性等级、似然比和英国立场声明四种鉴定意见表述形式进行了介绍和评析,通过分析发现,上述四种意见表述形式都存在一定的问题,实践中选择何种形式表述鉴定意见要综合考虑其科学性、逻辑性、现实性和可行性等多种价值选项;最后认为解决该问题的根本方法是各相关领域的专家应加强在鉴定方法上的合作性的基础研究.     

服务型政府视域中的价值取向和路径选择

服务型政府的建设是深化行政管理体制改革的重中之重。"以人为本"是服务型政府的价值追求,"以人为本"、以公民权利为本位以及公众利益最大化是服务型政府的首要目标。如何才能建设好服务型政府是摆在我国行政体制改革面前的重大课题和任务。在对服务型政府科学内涵分析的基础上,探讨了服务型政府价值取向及路径选择问题,以期在理论和实践中为新疆更好地推动服务型政府的建设提供政策建议。     

TARGET CHOICE DURING EXTREME EVENTS: A DISCRETE SPATIAL CHOICE MODEL OF THE 2011 LONDON RIOTS

Riots are extreme events, and much of the early research on rioting suggested that the decision making of rioters was far from rational and could only be understood from the perspective of a collective mind. In the current study, we derive and test a set of expectations regarding rioter spatial decision making developed from theories originally intended to explain patterns of urban crime when law and order prevail—crime pattern and social disorganization theory—and consider theories of collective behavior and contagion. To do this, we use data for all riot‐related incidents that occurred in London in August 2011 that were detected by the police. Unlike most studies of victimization, we use a random utility model to examine simultaneously how the features of the destinations selected by rioters, the origins of their journeys, and the characteristics of the offenders influence offender spatial decision making. The results demonstrate that rioter target choices were far from random and provide support for all three types of theory, but for crime pattern theory in particular. For example, rioters were more likely to engage in the disorder close to their home location and to select areas that contained routine activity nodes and transport hubs, and they were less likely to cross the Thames River. In terms of contagion, rioters were found to be more likely to target areas that had experienced rioting in the previous 24 hours. From a policy perspective, the findings provide insight into the types of areas that may be most vulnerable during riots and why this is the case, and when particular areas are likely to be at an elevated risk of this type of disorder.     

探究民营银行发展之路

民营银行之争由来已久。中国的银行业不缺数量,缺的是结构,缺草根金融。该文回顾了民营银行艰难的探索历程,指出应科学界定民营银行经营范围和服务对象,消除制度障碍和现实阻碍,秉承先试点,后推广,循序渐进的发展思路,不断完善顶层设计,提升自身实力,让民营银行逐渐成长为金融体系中一支审要的力量。     

The normalizing role of rationalist assumptions in the institutional embedding of neoliberalism

The political economy of Britain over the past three decades provides an interesting example of the consolidation, normalization and institutionalization of a new economic paradigm – neoliberalism. As such, it serves as a potentially instructive focus for debate both about the conditions under which economic paradigms are replaced and consolidated and the evolution of such paradigms through the process of institutionalization. In this paper I suggest that the institutionalization of this new economic paradigm has been associated with the shift from a normative to a normalized and necessitarian neoliberalism. I examine the role played by rationalist assumptions in this extended process of normalization-institutionalization. After presenting a stylized account of the evolution of British neoliberalism, I show how New Labour's monetary policy regime is the heir to the legacy of monetarism and its agenda of labour-market reform is the heir to Thatcherism's supply-side economics. I suggest that the time-inconsistency thesis and the business school globalization thesis have played an equivalent role, for New Labour, to that played for the new right by monetarism and supply-side economics in legitimating neoliberalism. In this way neoliberalism has been normalized. In the final sections of the paper I reflect on the implications of the normalized and necessitarian character of neoliberalism in Britain for its contestability and for democratic economic governance more broadly.     

Not all election winners are equal: Satisfaction with democracy and the nature of the vote

It is well known that individuals who voted for the winning party in an election tend to be more satisfied with democracy than those who did not. However, many winners deviate from their first choice when voting. It is argued in this article that the mechanisms that engender satisfaction operate less forcefully among such winners, thereby lessening the impact of victory on satisfaction. Results show that the gap in satisfaction over electoral losers among these ‘non‐optimal winners’ is, in fact, much smaller than that of ‘optimal winners’, who voted in line with their expressed preferences. A win matters more for those who have a bigger stake in victory. The article further explores how the effect of optimal victory on satisfaction varies across electoral systems.     

新形势下公民迁徙自由的保护及现实路径

在国际社会和各国宪法中,迁徙自由一直作为一项基本权利得到保护。1982年宪法没有恢复1975年宪法删除的公民迁徙自由条款,我国公民迁徙自由经历了肯定——否定——松动的过程,迁徙自由条款的发展变化是和社会发展状况息息相关的,在社会主义市场经济和城镇化进程的新形势下,保障公民迁徙自由、改革不合理的户籍制度成为越来越紧迫的要求。恢复迁徙自由在宪法中的地位,废除户籍登记条例,制定新的户籍法,为保障公民迁徙自由提供法律保障和制度支撑。     

论提升学术期刊核心竞争力

新形势对学术期刊的生存发展能力提出了更高的要求,应对挑战的必然选择是提升学术期刊的核心竞争力。有必要对核心竞争力的概念和特征进行新的解读,围绕影响核心竞争力提升的主要因素,从"理念铸魂、内容为王、人才是本、管理有道、创新至上"五个方面进行思考。     

Citizen Participation Models in the Local Government

This research pretends to propose and test a new explanatory model relating to citizen participation, which will help us to implement participatory public policies in the local government scheme, comparing with the models of citizen participation derivatives of structural theories and choice theories. The author refers to the case of Spain and he tests five hypotheses derived from these theories, using structural equations. This study used an open and cross-sectional design. He uses ＂Citizenship, Participation and Democracy Survey＂ from Sociological Research Center of Spain. The model proposed in this study has taken into account both structural variables from the macro context of participation （political opportunity structure） and individual variables （individual resources）, thus considering that the most recent literature on citizen participation tells us that it is necessary to overcome the reductionist perspectives limited to individual factors. Based on the above, we saw the importance of structural variables and individual variables for the participation of people. In line with that, we find that a citizen is involved in participatory policy when they have individual resources such as education, interest in politics, non-political disaffection, civic social norms, personal effectiveness, and community pride. Another find from this research, according to the empirical results, is that structural variables are predictive of citizen participation： resources, mobilization, membership of deprived group, economic deprivation, interpersonal trust, membership of associations, ties to the local community, and membership of an informal network.     

Estimating relative prevalence of competing issue voting rules in multiparty elections using finite mixture modeling

How do citizens of democratic polities translate their policy preferences into voting choices? Proximity and directional theories of issue voting offer different answers to this question that have strong implications for parties’ strategies. Controlled scenarios in imaginary two-candidate contests have gained popularity as a method to estimate proportions of proximity and directional voters in the population. However, this method is not always applicable in comparative research where scholars often have to study multiparty elections with observational data. In the present paper, I demonstrate how relative prevalence of different issue voting rules can be estimated using finite mixture modeling. Using both a paradigmatic and a recent case, I demonstrate that the mixture model predicts observed voting choices better than the alternatives. I also show how finite mixture modeling can be used to study individual-level characteristics of proximity and directional voters using education as an example.