从重化工业化争论看我国产业结构升级的路径选择

工业结构的重型化以及由此所引发的我国产业结构升级的路径选择是近期研究的一个焦点。近期在重化工业化的研究中存在许多不同观点。对重化工业化的相关问题进行深入反思就会发现,发展重化工业化是我国经济发展进入新阶段后的必然选择,而发展节约型、环保型、信息化嵌入型和开放型的重化工业化,是我国产业结构升级应当选择的新重化工业化发展道路。     

政府起源的经济学解释

对政府起源的解释是对政府的一种不断“解构”的过程。以公共选择理论和新制度经济学为代表的当代西方经济学 ,将政府视为社会经济发展的外生变量来考察政府的起源 ,揭示了政府在社会发展中的基本特征和功能 ,从而为政府改革和发展提供了新的理论依据。     

Personality traits,political attitudes and vote choice: Evidence from the United States

Past studies have documented the significant relationships between personality traits and voter turnout, but we know less about whether personality traits influence individual vote choices. This study examines whether such attitudinal factors as party identification, feeling thermometers toward the candidates, policy preferences and executive approval mediate the effects of personality traits on vote choice in the United States. Using data from ANES 2012, this study finds no direct relationship between personality traits and vote choice. More importantly, the results reveal that through previously mentioned attitudinal factors, higher levels of extraversion, conscientiousness and emotional stability indirectly decrease the probability of voting for Obama, whereas a higher level of openness to experience indirectly increases the probability of voting for Obama. Nevertheless, agreeableness only exerts an indirect, positive influence on vote choice via executive approval. Overall, this study provides insight into the relationship between personality traits and vote choice and makes up for the insufficiency in the study of personality and voting behavior.     

Does survey mode matter for studying electoral behaviour? Evidence from the 2009 German Longitudinal Election Study

Online surveys are becoming increasingly popular in the social sciences, particularly in electoral research. However, several studies have shown that participants who take part in online surveys differ significantly from those in other surveys. Still, since electoral research aims primarily at explaining voting behaviour (i.e., looks at slopes and intercepts in statistical model output), online surveys are deemed to be useful tools if models based on this data source arrive at similar conclusions than models based e.g. on random-sample face-to-face or telephone surveys. This paper analyses these relationships by comparing models of voting behaviour based on data from various survey modes with different sample selections conducted by the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) 2009. The results indicate that the data quality of the different survey types is comparable; online surveys are thus useful for electoral research.     

汇率制度选择理论综述

传统汇率制度选择理论的关注点为固定汇率制和浮动汇率制的优劣之争,而新兴汇率制度选择理论的关注点则为中间汇率制度和两极汇率制度的优劣之争,由此派生出了各种汇率制度选择理论。近年来,经济学家开始从可维持性和危机预防的角度出发来研究汇率制度的选择和安排,汇率制度选择理论的研究也从静态视角转向动态视角。     

加强社会建设和管理的路径选择

在建设社会主义和谐社会的大背景下,如何加强社会建设和管理,保持社会安定有序,是摆在我们面前的一项重要而紧迫的任务。加强社会建设和管理必须推动政府职能转变、建立完善的社会管理格局、整体推进社会管理体制改革、建立健全各种应急机制、妥善处理社会矛盾。     

刑事诉讼中的网络传闻证据规则初论

随着网络技术的迅猛发展,网络证据开始大量出现,这导致刑事诉讼中的网络传闻证据规则也日益具备实际价值。网络传闻证据规则确立的现实必要性在于信息时代电子证据运用愈发普遍和电子证据很难借助传统传闻证据规则进行可采性评判。对于刑事诉讼中的网络传闻证据规则的具体建构设计,应从网络传闻证据界定和例外范畴设置两方面着手。     

地方政府绩效评估体系的路径选择——福建的分析

本文分析了地方政府绩效评估体系的内涵及其路径选择的实质,并从自上而下绩效评估与自"下"而上绩效评估两类活动的角度,勾勒了目前地方政府绩效评估体系的现状和发展趋势,提出通过调整评估系统的构成要素组合来发展与完善地方政府绩效评估体系。以福建省绩效评估体系的演进为例,指出发展地方政府绩效评估体系的可能路径在于,通过平衡参与评估各方的利益需求,充分发挥政府内外各个利益相关者的作用,运用综合评估标准,由各方协商确定评估指标的权重,谨慎使用评估结果,从而改善整个评估体系的绩效。     

Two types of economic voting: How economic conditions jointly affect vote choice and turnout

The economic voting literature mostly looks at vote choice, ignoring potential effects on turnout. Studies that do focus on the latter often ignore the former, and come to contradictory conclusions. I develop a model of economic voting that jointly incorporates vote choice and abstention due to alienation or indifference. Analyzing ten elections with validated turnout data and conducting empirically informed simulations, I make two contributions. First, I show that “turnout switching” accounts for up to one third of total economic voting. This second type of economic voting is more common when the number of parties is low and responsibility is dispersed. Second, I show that a bad economy moves some people to abstain while having the opposite effect on others. The aggregate effect is ambiguous and related to macro-conditions in a non-linear way. This explains contradictory findings in the literature.