Turkey's Reform Effort Reconsidered, 1987–2004

The Helsinki Summit of the European Council in 1999 was a turning point in terms of clarifying a concrete membership perspective regarding candidate status for Turkey and accession to the European Union. Political reforms in Turkey to complete the 1993 Copenhagen criteria also gained significant momentum in the aftermath of the Summit. However, arguments stressing the influence of European Union conditionality seriously undervalue the gradual political transformation that Turkey was already undergoing in the years before 1999 and the societal pressure in Turkey that lay behind it. Basing Turkey's eligibility for membership wholly on the effects of European Union conditionality makes the democratic process extremely vulnerable to the still-delicate process of European Union–Turkey relations. The article aims to develop a more coherent explanation of the European Union's impact on Turkey's politics between 1987 and 2004, by offering an alternative framework of analysis based on Moravcsik's analysis of the European human-rights regime and Risse's theory of communicative action. The main argument is that the principal dynamics driving recent democratization in Turkey were its newfound location within the European human-rights regime and the increasing power of ‘European argument’ as an alternative way of resolving domestic conflicts.     

Is it none of their business? Business and democratization,the case of Turkey

This article explains how the Turkish business' regime preferences have evolved from pro-authoritarian to pro-democratic in the context of dual transitions, in response to changes in incentive structures shaped by domestic, regional and international parameters. It particularly focuses on big business and highlights the central role that greater exposure to international competition during the course of opening up and liberalization played in the evolution of its regime preferences. The article suggests that the central mechanism which has led to the regime preference change is socialization by strategic calculation facilitated by business' increasing incorporation into transnational networks. It asserts that the Turkish big business' experience is particularly interesting because international exposure not only created new opportunities for big business, but also new divisions and rivalries within the business community. These new rivals formed flourishing alliances with the government, with their accompanying claims to power that challenged the big business' previous hegemony in accessing state resources. In the process, big business' fear of losing its privileged status to rival business groups and the resulting uncertainties led big business to associate democratization with higher benefits, as they became increasingly aware of the link between democratization and diminished uncertainties, through their interaction with transnational business networks. Consequently, big business consolidated its pro-democratic stance as shifting domestic alliances enhanced the need for diminishing uncertainties, while internationalization along with the prospect of EU membership increased the cost of status quo.     

To govern,or not to govern? Opportunity and post-coup military behaviour in Egypt 2011–2014

This article examines Egyptian military behaviour in 2011 and 2013 to address the question of why officers remain in power following some successful coups, and allow for a transition to civilian rule after others. My evidence suggests that in post-1970 cases where international factors fail to exert sufficient pressure, outcome variation is influenced by levels of corporate opportunity, defined here as the ease with which the army can use control of the state to expand its corporate interests. Drawing on the existing literature, I posit consensus against military rule, high popular support for democracy, strong civil society, the presence of a strong opposition party, and low levels of cohesion among officers as factors which constrain opportunity. Prior research suggests that when the level of opportunity is high, controlling the state becomes a high-risk/low-reward endeavour, making it likely that officers will allow for a transition to civilian rule. My study contributes to the existing scholarship by using original data gathered through interviews with Egyptian officers, as well as other experts on the Egyptian military, to argue that low consensus against military rule, low support for democracy, and high organizational cohesion are jointly sufficient to produce governing intervention.     

Chinese influence,U.S. linkages,or neither? Comparing regime changes in Myanmar and Thailand

This study examines the potential influence of foreign linkages on regime outcomes by comparing Myanmar and Thailand. Linkages with the West are supposed to facilitate democratization, whereas those with autocracies usually promote regime survival. This study focuses on Myanmar and Thailand’s linkages with the U.S. and China, which at first sight seem to demonstrate the hypothesized effects. Myanmar gradually liberalized while strengthening its Western linkages, whereas Thailand experienced democratic breakdown amid a shift in alignment from the U.S. to China. However, in-depth analysis suggests that the influence of foreign linkages on domestic political change was minimal and that the relationship may very well be endogenous. The findings of this study call for a more careful theorization and handling of the external factors in studies of regime change and highlight the importance of simultaneously analyzing democratic and autocratic linkages.     

中国参与国际能源合作的法律机制创新研究

随着经济全球化的到来,国际能源合作已成为世界各国普遍关注的问题.国内外也有学者通过政治学、经济学、外交学对国际能源合作加以探究的,但从法学的视野进行探讨的,目前还很少见.中国应该在积极推进世界能源组织(WEA)的统一法律规则构建的基础之上,加强对中国参与国际能源合作的法律机制问题的探究,坚持中国参与国际能源合作的法律原则,寻找出中国参与国际能源合作的法律对策.     

有事法制与《日本国宪法》的危机——兼论有事七法案的通过对日本和平宪法的影响

2004年6月14日,日本国会通过了有事七法案。有事七法案的通过标志着日本有事法律体系的全面建立。然而,《日本国宪法》第9条明文规定日本放弃一切战争权利并不得保持任何战争力量。由此,有事法制便与《日本国宪法》产生了矛盾性。本文在系统介绍有事法制的基础上分析了有事七法案及有事法律体系的建立对于《日本国宪法》的影响。     

1953年朝鲜半岛“停战机制”的困境与出路

冷战后朝鲜半岛局势的动荡不安和近几年来的核危机久拖不决表明,1953年建立的停战机制已经难以适应局势发展的需要,构筑新的安全保障机制已成为大势所趋。鉴于停战机制的局限性,新的安全机制的构建需要全新的思维。     

Breaking the ‘Silence’ of the Military Regime: New Politics of Memory in Brazil

This article elucidates the latest developments in the ‘politics of memory’ regarding the military regime in Brazil. Only recently, I argue, has the Brazilian state abandoned its ‘politics of silence’ and started to actively champion the memory of the left‐wing ‘resistance’. This new strategy climaxed in a governmental crisis over a historic plan to establish a National Truth Commission to investigate human rights violations during the military regime. The article analyses key incidents and debates prior to the crisis, and contrasts the post‐dictatorial collective memory of Brazil with that of other Latin American countries.     

“在场”抑或“缺席”：农村公共服务中的乡镇政权——基于赣中地区A乡的调查与分析

本文通过A乡的案例与逻辑分析,表明乡镇政权的中心工作仍然是经济发展和社会稳定,而在基本公共服务方面基本处于＂缺席＂的状态。乡镇在农村公共服务中是否＂在场＂,则要取决于乡镇干部对自身＂职务晋升＂可能性预期的判断,不具有硬性约束。乡镇政权的＂在场＂不仅可以提高农村的基本公共服务的效能,而且有利于加强国家与农民间的联系;乡镇政权的＂缺席＂,不仅使得农村公共服务的供给水平得不到提升,阻碍政府职能的转变,而且还会加剧乡镇政权的＂悬浮＂,进而恶化基层的治理环境。上述结论还揭示了,在后税费时代,地方政府向公共服务型方向演变,需要在国家宏观政策的结构性变迁下方可展开。