国有银行信贷风险再分析

今年一月,中国银行纽约分行爆出“内外勾结骗取贷款”的惊人事件;同月,中国国家审计署对中国银行进行了2000年度资产负债损益审计,查出并发现大案要案线索22起,涉案金额27亿元人民币,涉案人员35人。与民生银行相比较,国有银行贷款事件如此频频发生,这不得不引起我们对国有银行信贷风险的再思考和分析。本文从我国国有银行不良贷款现状及其产生的主要原因进行展述和分析,重点从制度层面分析其生成原因,进而提出相应对策建议。     

THE MISSING LINK IN GENERAL DETERRENCE RESEARCH*

Research on the deterrent effects of punishment falls into two categories: macro‐level studies of the impact of aggregate punishment levels on crime rates, and individual‐level studies of the impact of perceived punishment levels on self‐reported criminal behavior. For policy purposes, however, the missing link—ignored in previous research—is that between aggregate punishment levels and individual perceptions of punishment. This paper addresses whether higher actual punishment levels increase the perceived certainty, severity, or swiftness of punishment. Telephone interviews with 1,500 residents of fifty‐four large urban counties were used to measure perceptions of punishment levels, which were then linked to actual punishment levels as measured in official statistics. Hierarchical linear model estimates of multivariate models generally found no detectable impact of actual punishment levels on perceptions of punishment. The findings raise serious questions about deterrence‐based rationales for more punitive crime control policies.     

Risk-Taking,Recklessness and HIV Transmission: Accommodating the Reality of Sexual Transmission of HIV Within a Justifiable Approach to Criminal Liability

This paper examines the issue of justifiability of risk-taking with regard to the transmission of HIV. It considers a number of factors, such as seriousness of risk, likelihood of risk occurring, social utility of conduct involved, ability to use precautions and victim awareness of the risk and willingness to accept it, which combined help to determine whether the taking of a risk is reasonable or not. It argues that by considering the issue of justifiability in this way, it is possible to accommodate the wider social, psychological and public health realities of HIV. It further argues that a criminal law which fails to take account of such considerations is not only overly broad in its application but ultimately risks punishing those who are not in fact deserving of punishment. I would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier draft.     

Curtailing Ex-Post Fraud in Risk Sharing Arrangements

This paper considers a situation in which the outcome of a random variable, x~, must be split between two individuals, but only one of them (the agent) actually observes the true value that the variable takes. The agent reports a value of the variable to the principal, who then either accepts this report and each participant receives a predetermined share of the reported value of x~, or he rejects the report and carries out an investigation into the true value of x~. If the investigation reveals that the agent reported falsely (fraud), then each participant receives a predetermined payoff that depends on both the true value of x~ and the value of x that the agent reported. The paper finds a payoff function for the case of discovered fraud that provides the proper incentives for the agent to always report truthfully independently of his utility function. The model has direct applications for both tax evasion and insurance fraud.     

认罪认罚从宽制度实施风险及程序控制——基于美国辩诉交易制度实施风险的展开

我国认罪认罚从宽制度吸纳了我国试点的成熟经验和借鉴了美国辩诉交易等认罪协商制度的有益做法。而作为程序上先行先试的制度,在实施中既需要通过程序来避免无辜者被迫认罪和权权交易、权钱交易等,更要防控美国辩诉交易等协商性刑事司法折损正当程序衍生出的量刑失衡以及冤案的风险。认罪认罚从宽制度的程序完善需要针对制度实施极易产生风险的节点予以程序上特别控制,也需要完善相应风险控制的程序机制和救济制度,避免因程序简化可能带来的实体不公,保障我国这一制度的预期目标得以实现。     

互联网金融安全规制研究

互联网金融是当今网络经济高度发展的必然产物,顺应各方需要,具有鲜活的生命力和不可抗拒的发展趋势。但是,互联网金融也存在金融风险,如果缺乏有效监管,风险积累到一定程度就会演变成金融危机。因此,在国内互联网金融发展的如火如荼阶段,必须高度重视互联网金融对传统金融市场的作用和影响,规避其对金融安全的冲击,重新界定互联网金融机构法律地位、构建多层次的互联网金融监管体系、切实加强金融消费者权益保护,确保国家金融安全。     

东亚一体化中的非对称依赖结构风险及其化解

东亚一体化以市场驱动和制度驱动两种方式演进。然而,无论从市场驱动的区域生产网络还是从区域贸易协定的制度安排的现状和发展趋势上来看,东亚各经济体都存在非对称的相互依赖关系。非对称经济网络中的技术依赖和市场依赖,区域贸易协定的非对称发展趋势对多边自由化可能造成的抵触及其所带来的高昂的一体化政治成本等,会产生对一体化的反作用力量。因而,东亚必须以区域制度创新化解现有的矛盾和问题,以提高东亚经济在全球经济中的效益和竞争地位。