The Static-99R predicts sexual and violent recidivism for individuals with low intellectual functioning*

A current debate is whether actuarial risk assessment tools predict sexual recidivism in sexual offenders with intellectual disabilities (SOIDs). Since intellectual functioning exists on a spectrum, the present study examined the predictive validity of the Static-99R across the range of intellectual functioning. The sample was comprised of 454 adult sexual offenders assessed at an outpatient clinic and followed for an average of 10 years. Offenders in the extremely low/borderline group had higher scores on the Static-99R than other offenders, largely due to their score on the detachment subscale of the Static-99R, but did not have significantly higher recidivism rates. Calibration analyses suggested that the expected and observed recidivism rates did not differ significantly. Intellectual functioning did not add incremental validity to the Static-99R. Further, there was no interaction between intellectual functioning and actuarial risk score. The results suggested that the Static-99R can be used across the range of intellectual functioning, albeit somewhat more cautiously for those at the lowest and highest end of the intellectual functioning distribution.     

Risk-Need-Responsivity applications of the MMPI-2 in sexual offender assessment

The present investigation examined the risk, need, and responsivity (RNR) correlates of MMPI-2 scores in a Canadian sample of 349 federally incarcerated sex offenders, followed up prospectively 19 years post-release. In terms of responsivity indicators, more serious profile patterns were associated with younger age, single marital status, lower education, and lower cognitive ability; the scales generally had weak associations with sex offender treatment completion or change. With respect to criminogenic risk and need, Scales F, 4, 6, 8, and 9 and combinations therein had significant associations with structured measures of sex offender risk, and in turn, consistently predicted sexual or violent recidivism over 5 and 10-year follow-ups. Several of these predictive associations were maintained even after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Finally, model based clustering of the MMPI-2 scales generated three clusters termed disordered, emotionally distressed, and predominantly antisocial (non-disordered) subtypes. Although comparatively higher rates of violent recidivism were found with the disordered subtype, this group did not have higher levels of risk and need, broadly speaking, than the other subtypes. The RNR implications of the results are discussed in terms of forensic applications of MMPI-2 with sex offender populations.     

政府与社会关系视角下的政府信用构成要素研究

政府与社会是一种契约关系。政府信用的实质就是在契约关系中政府的合法性问题。政府与社会的良性互动不仅构成政府信用建设的现实基础,也是政府信用要素研究的理论基础。在政府与社会关系的视角下,结合政府信用的基本原则,提炼出了七大政府信用构成要素,从系统、动态的角度分析了各构成要素所需要遵循的原则和建设目标。     

Right place,right time: Increasing the effectiveness of agricultural development support in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper suggests that smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are well placed to seize the opportunities from expanding global and regional demand for agricultural products but that this will require a shift from extensive to more intensive production systems. The ability of SSA's smallholder farmers to increase on-farm investments in productivity is, however, constrained by their capacity to manage the risk-return trade-offs in moving towards intensified agriculture. While stakeholders are increasing their investments to assist smallholders in SSA to participate in integrated supply chains, the returns in terms of technical and financial results from these investments are generally lower than in other developing regions. This paper suggests that this is, at least in part, a consequence of problems associated with the role of spatial and temporal coordination in program delivery. Hence, much more focus needs to be devoted to delivering goods and services for smallholders at the right place and the right time, and this should be better monitored and evaluated in the context of development programs.     

全面建成小康社会与政府功能透视

全面建成小康社会离不开政府引导、保护、协调等功能的有效发挥,而引导功能无疑是首要之需,作为两大主体的中央政府、地方政府,既具有相向的表达、又具有紧密的关联。中央政府的引导功能主要通过规范授权、财政控制、政策工具、指标考核等方式实现,地方政府的引导功能作用主要通过实际设计、规划布局、理性选择等方式实现。准确把握两者之间的内在统一性、不可替代性,进一步优化宏观层面的整合设计,加强中观层面的统筹推进,有助于从根本上保证全面建成小康社会的质量和水平。     

转型社会中防范公共权力异化问题思考

在社会转型的大背景下,一些政府部门存在的公共权力异化现象,会在一定程度上影响现阶段民主政治建设和社会主义和谐社会的全面构建。公共权力异化的一大表现就是公共权力的滥用和私用,进而滋生腐败,损害公民的合法权益。针对这些问题,应从法制层面、制度层面、伦理层面以及文化层面,探讨公共权力的合理规制和有效运用,进而完善权力运行机制,促使政府部门"权为民所用,利为民所谋"。     

The Needs of Women Offenders

Abstract

Recent corrections research indicates that programs and community services providing assistance and training for women offenders are lacking. Using a sample of 402 female felony offenders, women's needs, including those thought to be criminogenic (i.e., characteristics and circumstances that heighten an individual's recidivism risk), are examined to determine whether certain groups of women possess similar sets of needs. Cluster analysis is used to identify combinations of needs shared within subgroups of female felons. Identification of common and co-occurring needs, particularly those associated with high risk for recidivism, can assist program staff, advocates for women offenders, and correctional administrators in determining what combination of program elements should be available to women, and the degree to which programming must address multiple domains.     

Modeling Substance Use and Related Risk Behaviors Leading to Criminal Justice Involvement Among Young Adult Women

Abstract

Using structural equation modeling, two models of the relationship between trauma, attachment, substance use, risk behavior, and criminal justice involvement among young adult women were tested. Overall, the model constructs explained approximately 23% and 36% of the variance in Illicit Substance Use and Risk Behavior, respectively, and 28% of the variance in Criminal Justice Involvement. Data were taken from a longitudinal study of pregnant and parenting adolescents (N = 239). This population is important because they may be at increased risk for involvement in problem behaviors across adolescence and adulthood. Findings suggest that patterns of emotional dysregulation are significant contributors to women's illicit substance use and risk behavior. Implications for intervention and prevention are addressed.     

技术性：司法权威的一个内在面向

在当前我国司法实践不断呈现社会化发展趋势的时代背景下,热点司法个案已开始成为社会舆论所关注的焦点,相关的司法风险也在逐渐地呈现.就司法的社会公信力而言,中国司法似乎已经无奈地陷入到了塔西佗陷阱当中.在司法权威的建构上,中国司法迫切地需要在司法的技术性层面不断地努力.虽然司法技术并不构成公正司法的充分条件,但无疑却是必要条件和最低评价标准.对于司法权威而言,技术性乃是司法权威的一个内在面向,技术性司法权威的建构需要通过自身的不断努力来获得社会的普遍性认同.     

不断完善医疗纠纷赔偿机制的思考

本文对海南省推行全省统一的医疗责任保险方案实施两年来,在运行过程中存在的问题与对策从医院层面进行分析,认为医疗纠纷通过医责险赔偿仍面临诸多矛盾和问题。主要表现在：一是保险公司的逐利性和医院对投保的初衷存在巨大差异,购买医责险并非医院自愿;二是医责险在理赔中困难重重,该赔不赔、随意压价、限制受理范围等等导致调解失败,医院没有真正从医疗纠纷中解脱出来,“医闹”问题仍困扰医院;三是保险方案设计和保费调整系数不合理,医院承担的保费过高,而赔偿过低,未能达到风险转嫁的目的。作者提出不断完善医疗纠纷赔偿机制,尝试建立医疗风险互助金制度。