Assessing dynamic risk and protective factors in the community: examining the validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry

Recently, there has been a growing interest in advancing the state of offender risk assessment: particularly through the development of risk instruments to assist with parole management and the incorporation of protective factors specific to re-entry. The current study's aim was to validate a measure of stable and acute dynamic risk factors and protective factors used by probation officers managing offenders in the community: the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR). Empirical examination of the structure of DRAOR scores soon after release from prison suggested four components, rather than the theoretically proposed three-subscale structure. Both the original three subscales and the four new subscales showed good convergent validity with other dynamic risk instruments, and reliably predicted new convictions; however, only the new stable component added significant incremental predictive power over existing static and dynamic risk instruments. These findings provide initial support for the validity of the DRAOR; suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Posttraumatic stress disorder symptom severity and fear of personal crime: exploring their interrelationship as a function of risk estimation

Both trauma psychology and criminology have studied the psychological correlates of crime victimization. While the former discipline has primarily focused on the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among crime victims, the latter has particularly studied the association between history of victimization and fear of crime. A major difference between both concepts is that PTSD is experienced in relation to previous victimization, while fear of crime does not necessarily follow from previous victimization and is primarily experienced in anticipation of possible future victimization. Despite their different orientations, both perspectives share one central tenet: they both argue that feelings of anxiety are accompanied by increased perceptions of risk for future victimization. Given this theoretical overlap, both types of anxiety may correlate with each other. The current study explored this topic in a sample of Dutch university students (N = 375) and found that PTSD symptom severity and fear of crime were significantly associated with each other, both in univariate and multivariate analyses. This association was stronger for participants who scored higher on perceived risk of personal crime victimization than for those who scored lower. Results were discussed in light of study limitations and directions for future research.     

Understanding how sexual offenders compare across psychiatric and correctional settings: examination of Canadian mentally ill sexual offenders

Abstract

Much of what is known about sexual offenders is based on correctional samples and then applied across settings based on the assumption that this group is homogeneous. In this study, 149 files were compared, including 108 cases from the forensic mental health system (FMH) and 41 cases from the correctional system (COR). Although many similarities were observed between the FMH and COR groups, the results also revealed important differences. The FMH group was characterised by more frequent hospitalisations, higher rates of major mental illness and single status. The COR group was characterised by a history of physical and sexual abuse, family history of addictions, more intrusive sexual offences and higher rates of offending. These results highlight different profiles for sexual offenders in forensic mental health and correctional settings and challenge us to consider the implications for assessment, treatment and risk management of this unique group of sexual offenders.     

The predictive and convergent validity of a psychometric battery used to assess sexual offenders in a treatment programme: an 18-year follow-up

Abstract

This study examined sex offender risk and treatment change based on a battery of psychometric assessment measures administered to 267 treated adult Canadian federal sex offenders followed up an average 18 years post release. Several significant pre–post changes that were frequently moderate in magnitude (d>.50) were observed across these measures. A factor analysis of the psychometric battery generated three broad need domains consistent with the extant literature that were labelled Socioemotional Functioning, Anger/Hostility, and Misogynist Attitudes. The three need domains and a Need Total, created by their summation, converged with the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003) in conceptually meaningful ways and predicted sexual and violent recidivism to varying degrees. Raw measurements of change obtained from pre-to posttreatment frequently bore weak and non-significant relationships to outcome. However, after creating standardised residual change scores to control for pre-treatment score, treatment changes in the individual measures, need domains and Need Total improved significantly in their prediction of reductions in general and sexual violence.     

Some notes on the validation of VRS-SO static scores

ABSTRACT

The present study was a psychometric examination of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, S., Olver, M. E., Nicholaichuk, T. P., & Gordon, A. (2003 Wong, S., Olver, M. E., Nicholaichuk, T. P., & Gordon, A. (2003). The violence risk scale: Sexual offender version (VRS-SO). Saskatoon: Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan. [Google Scholar]). The violence risk scale: Sexual offender version (VRS-SO). Saskatoon: Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan) static item scores in a Canadian multisite sample of 668 treated adult male sexual offenders. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of 13 nonredundant Static-99R and VRS-SO static items generated three factors labelled Youthful Aggression, Sexual Criminality, and General Criminality. The factor and total scores converged with Static-99R and VRS-SO dynamic factor scores. Scores on the VRS-SO static items, EFA-derived factors, and total score each significantly predicted 5- and 10-year sexual, violent, and general recidivism through ROC analyses. Cox regression survival analyses showed all three factors uniquely predicted sexual recidivism to varying degrees in the overall sample; however, only Youthful Aggression and General Criminality uniquely significantly predicted violent and general recidivism in the overall sample and among sexual offender subgroups. Implications for theory, clinical practice, and instrument refinement are discussed.     

Mapping an agenda for the study of youth sexual aggression in Europe: assessment,principles of good practice,and the multilevel analysis of risk factors

ABSTRACT

Sexual aggression is a serious threat to young people's sexual health in Europe, but establishing the exact scale of the problem has been hampered by a variety of conceptual and methodological problems. This article presents a framework for studying youth sexual aggression that addresses both prevalence and risk factors of victimisation and perpetration. It proposes a research tool to comprehensively assess the perpetration of, and victimisation by, sexual aggression that captures different coercive strategies, sexual acts, victim–perpetrator relations, and gender constellations. The instrument is rooted in a clear conceptual definition of sexual aggression and was pilot-tested in 10 countries of the European Union (EU). Furthermore, a list of good practice criteria is proposed to promote the quality and comparability of research on youth sexual aggression in Europe. A multilevel approach combining individual-level and country-level predictors of sexual aggression is outlined and illustrated with data from the pilot study in 10 countries.     

Young adult sexual offenders with emerging personality disorders: developmental and offence-related characteristics and treatment engagement

ABSTRACT

In the context of the UK Government’s Offender Personality Disorder (OPD) Strategy, large numbers of high-risk young adult sexual offenders with emerging personality disorders are being screened for inclusion onto specialist intervention pathways (the OPD Pathway). However, little is currently known about the clinical and offence-related needs of this population or their impact on treatment engagement. The current study investigated the developmental, personality and offence-related characteristics of 87 incarcerated young adult sexual offenders, comparing those screened in to the pathway and those not screened in. Fifty per cent of the sample were potentially eligible for the OPD pathway. OPD eligible cases were found to have significantly higher rates of parental difficulties, developmental trauma, and childhood behavioural difficulties and to present with significantly higher rates of previous violent and sexual offences, previous allegations of sexual offences, and to have used physical coercion in their offences. The OPD sample was also significantly less likely to have pre-pubescent victims and more likely to refuse treatment, with over 70% failing to engage with the Sex Offender Treatment Programme (SOTP). SOTP non-engagement among OPD cases was most strongly predicted by categorical offence denial. Comparisons are made with the broader adolescent sexual offender literature.     

Factors associated with contact child sexual abuse in a sample of indecent image offenders

Abstract

This study explored a sample of 244 UK adult male offenders convicted of offences involving indecent images of children (IIOC): 120 had a previous contact child sexual offence (defined as dual offenders) and 124 had no evidence of an offence against a child (defined as non-contact offenders). Offender groups were compared regarding their socio-demographic characteristics, previous convictions and IIOC possession. Key discriminatory factors that differentiated dual offenders were: access to children, previous offence history, sexual grooming and possession of IIOC that depicts similar-aged victims. In contrast, non-contact offenders could be identified from their greater amount and wider range of IIOC possession. The results suggest a homology between Internet behaviours, IIOC possession and victim selection. Implications for law enforcement agencies are discussed in terms of assisting investigative prioritisation by identifying those most at risk of committing sexual abuse against children.     

Sexual recidivism: A review of static,dynamic and actuarial predictors

The need for accurate risk assessment of sexual offence recidivism has never been greater. It is widely accepted that actuarial risk instruments outperform clinical judgement and the literature has recently witnessed a surge of empirically derived actuarial measures. However, in spite of the increased levels of predictive accuracy, actuarial measures have been criticized as being unrepresentative, lacking specificity, and being heavily reliant on static risk factors without taking into account dynamic risk, psychological emotional states and treatment effects. Rather than offering a critique of the actuarial movement, this paper offers a summary of static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism as identified from the literature. Implications of incorporating dynamic factors into risk assessments and actuarial measures are discussed.     

政社互动：创新社会管理背景下的行政法新模式

在我国“全能政府”的传统治理模式难以满足社会发展需求的情况下,吸收公众的广泛参与和社会组织的协同治理成为公共行政改革的必然选项。同时,在加强创新社会管理背景下,社会管理的行政模式也由传统的“机关行政”向“公共行政”转变,政府与社会之间的关系也不再是一种领导和被领导、指挥和被指挥的关系,而应该是一种平等合作、政社良性互动的关系。现代行政法也是以民主行政和合作治理为基础的行政法。更强调社会的自治和参与。因此,当代公共行政社会化背景下的政府与社会的关系理应是一种合作信任关系,相应地公共行政模式也就是“政社互动”新模式。