Choosing relatives for DNA identification of missing persons

DNA-based analysis is integral to missing person identification cases. When direct references are not available, indirect relative references can be used to identify missing persons by kinship analysis. Generally, more reference relatives render greater accuracy of identification. However, it is costly to type multiple references. Thus, at times, decisions may need to be made on which relatives to type. In this study, pedigrees for 37 common reference scenarios with 13 CODIS STRs were simulated to rank the information content of different combinations of relatives. The results confirm that first-order relatives (parents and fullsibs) are the most preferred relatives to identify missing persons; fullsibs are also informative. Less genetic dependence between references provides a higher on average likelihood ratio. Distant relatives may not be helpful solely by autosomal markers. But lineage-based Y chromosome and mitochondrial DNA markers can increase the likelihood ratio or serve as filters to exclude putative relationships.     

The dynamic character of disguise behavior for text-based, mixed, and stylized signatures

The aims of this study were to determine if dynamic parameters (duration, size, velocity, jerk, and pen pressure) differed for signing style (text-based, stylized, and mixed) and if signing style influences handwriting dynamics equally across three signature conditions (genuine, disguised, and auto-simulation). Ninety writers provided 10 genuine signatures, five disguised signatures, and five auto-simulated signatures. All 1800 signatures were collected using a digitizing tablet resulting in a database of each signature's dynamic characteristics. With genuine signatures, there were significant differences between styles for size, velocity, and pen pressure, and there were significant differences between genuine signatures and at least one of the un-natural signature conditions for all parameters. For velocity and size, these changes with condition were dependent on style. Changes with condition for the other parameters were similar for the three styles. This study shows that there are differences among natural signature styles and disguise behaviors that may be relevant in forensic signature examinations.     

The influence of gender on ability to simulate handwritten signatures: a study of Arabic writers

This study investigates whether a writer's gender can be determined from an inspection of simulated signatures written in the Arabic alphabet or Arabic abjad. It is generally believed that the penmanship of female writers is superior to male writers. There is also reason to expect that superiority in writing skill might contribute to success in simulating the signatures of other writers. Simulated signatures produced by a large population of male (414) and female (312) Arabic writers were graded, and the results were statistically analyzed. Women were found to have a marginal advantage simulating all elements of the signatures, but there was no statistically significant difference between the genders on any of the elements examined.     

基于游戏引擎的犯罪现场仿真研究

本文介绍了目前主流的可视化开发工具,结合公安实际并利用UDK（Unreal Development Kit）功能齐全,使用方便的特点,实现了犯罪现场三维重建,探讨了仿真流程、场景管理、材质及模型导入等关键问题。通过对案件模拟仿真的应用示例,将视景仿真技术与刑事科学技术紧密结合,方便了办案人员多角度观察现场、分析犯罪行为,提高了工作效率及判断的准确性,为现场勘察和重建中的技术难题寻求了解决方案。     

基于ATT-3000的动态仿真取证技术研究

本文首先介绍了ATT-3000动态仿真取证系统的概念及特点,然后给出了利用该系统进行仿真和密码破解的过程,最后分析了其在仿真系统快速取证方面的典型应用。     

Policing Australia’s ‘heroin drought’: using an agent-based model to simulate alternative outcomes

Our paper examines how street-level drug markets adapt to a macro-level disruption to the supply of heroin, under three experimental conditions of street-level drug law enforcement: random patrol, hot-spot policing and problem-orientated policing. We utilize an agent-based model to explore the relative impact of abstractions of these three law enforcement strategies after simulating an ‘external shock’ to the supply of heroin to the street-level drug market. We use 3 years of data, which include the period of the ‘heroin drought’ in Melbourne (Australia) that commenced in late 2000 and early 2001, to measure changes in a selected range of crime and harm indicators under the three policing conditions. Our results show that macro-level disruptions to drug supply have a limited impact on street-level market dynamics when there is a ready replacement drug. By contrast, street-level police interventions are shown to vary in their capacity to alter drug market dynamics. Importantly, our laboratory abstraction of problem-orientated policing is shown to be the optimal strategy to disrupt street-level injecting-drug markets, reduce crimes and minimize harm, regardless of the type of drug being supplied to the market.

A simulation model of pretrial felony case processing: A queuing system analysis

Case processing tends to be examined with data analysis or evaluation designs. Both limit our understanding of how case processing as a whole operates and how its parts relate to each other. This article suggests queue simulation modeling as a method for dealing with these issues. We report here the initial development and analysis of a queuing model of arraignment to trial assignment. Conceptualizing on the basis of court functions and empirical findings, rather than institutional structures, we conceive a five-stage pretrial process. Using case-level, rather than system-level data, we construct a single-server, multiphase queuing model and use the model to simulate the behavior of a pretrial case processing system. Simulations show the strong impact of the final phase (trial assignment) on the entire system and that most of this impact is delay rather than service. The system is then analyzed using a factorial design that systematically alters model parameters thought to be important determinants of performance. Simulations are run for each possibility in the design, and analysis of variance is used to examine results. Analysis confirms prior results concerning final phase impact and points specifically to the import of phase capacity and exit rate. The utility of modeling is considered by suggesting some policy implications of the results for judicial staffing and behavior.     

Negotiating Russian Federalism: A Simulation for Comparative Politics

While the use of simulations in the international relations classroom has proliferated over the past decade, this pedagogical tool has been largely neglected in the comparative politics classroom. Simulations in comparative politics can be a useful component in teaching students about the diversity within foreign countries and the dynamic of domestic policymaking. We describe here an informative and easy-to-run simulation on Russian federalism which can be integrated into courses on Russian politics or easily adapted for use in other courses, especially those focusing on countries in which center-regional relations are an important dimension. The simulation is based on the Russian Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian Federal Assembly, and is a great way to illustrate through experiential learning the quid pro quo of Russian federalism. We provide detailed information on English-language sources that both instructors and students can use during the simulation, along with an Appendix and a Website that provides everything instructors need to run the simulation in their own classes.     

经济新常态下的刘易斯转折点演进路径研究

Based on the utility decision model of family,this paper selects the following parameters: the relative price of agricultural and non-agricultural products, total factor productivity,labor output elasticity in agricultural sector and non-agricultural sector,and designates three states:low, medium and high. And on this basis,we have constructed a model of Lewis Turning Point evolution path based on the general equilibrium model to forecast its movement with the method of numerical simulation in this “new normal” economy. Results show:the Chinese economy will not meet Lewis Turning Point in 2025,but an increase in non-agricultural sector output will accelerate the coming of Lewis turning point; the influence of capital elements is similar to industry production; the efficiency variance of two sectors is negative to the Lewis Turning Point. The efficiency gap is not only in microscopic system,such as the mode of production, advanced technology acquisition and other inputs,but also in macro system of household registration, employment and social security.     

侦查讯问课程改革坚持的几项原则

为顺应形势,落实部署,中国刑警学院刑侦系侦查讯问课程组进行了课程改革的探索和尝试。实践表明,要想提高侦查讯问课程改革的针对性和实效性,就必须坚持理论指导与实训操作并重、突出课程特色与亮点、针对实践中的问题、综合运用多种教学方式方法等原则。