随机模拟法进行混合样本拆分分析

目的以随机模拟法对大量混合样本拆分进行统计分析。方法在Identifiler、PP18D、AGCU EX20、PP21、AGCU EX20&AGCU 21+1等5个系统中,使用自主研发软件模拟100万组混合样本,每组逐个拆分,统计平均拆分基因座数(L)和平均拆分组合数(Π)。结果 Identifiler、PP18D、AGCU EX20、PP21、AGCU EX20&AGCU 21+1系统的L分别为4.8、5.8、6.7、7.0、11.1;Π分别为3.71×104、1.06×105、3.34×105、6.40×105、2.48×1012。结论本文结果对于混合样本拆分具有一定的指导意义。     

侦查专业综合模拟实训教学探讨

侦查专业综合模拟实训是公安院校针对侦查专业课程整合,贴近公安实战,提高学员的综合能力和素质所实施的一项教学活动。该教学活动是将侦查专业本科阶段所学的专业课程用模拟实战的教学方式组织实施。教学中应做好初识场地、器材、案例的准备工作,精心设计,周密组织,加强引导,注重评价与考核,提高教学效果。     

Regionalization in East Asia

Institutional regionalization has come very late to East Asia compared with Europe, but its pace has dramatically increased since the mid-1990s. Many agreements, including bilateral ones such as those signed between Japan and Singapore, or pluri-lateral ones such as those between ASEAN countries, cover an ever increasing number of countries of the East Asian region, including Japan, India, and China. We first analyze Asian integration as a de facto, spontaneous, development of trade. Trade specialization in Asia has often been described as guided by the different levels of development of the countries participating in the regional integration. It constitutes a vertical division of labor between poor countries exporting natural resources and/or labor-intensive products to developed countries exporting machinery, sophisticated parts and components, and high-tech products. This trade structure is radically different from the European horizontal division of labor (exchange of different varieties of similar goods). Then we look at the micro-economic level how Japanese firms tend to integrate Asia into their international network, with Japanese partners being used as relays for Japanese export of semi-manufactured products. Last we present a simulation with the MIRAGE model of a scenario of general regionalization in which all the regions of the world develop preferential treatment for neighboring countries. These agreements are limited to industrial products with particular attention to the automotive sector. The main results are that Asia is the main winner in such a scenario, and within Asia it is Japan and Korea that will be the main winners. In fact, because developing Asia is one of the most protected regions of the world, the impact of liberalization is also the highest. Second, Japan and Korea are best placed to profit from these regional agreements, because other developed countries are excluded from the market of developing Asia. They also have superiority in manufacturing goods whereas countries like China might have problems upscaling their industrial production. Nevertheless our model did not take into account the voluntary pace of development chosen by China and that she will use her powerful state system to avoid being locked into low-tech, low-value-added products.

Modeling Temperature Variations Using Monte Carlo Simulation: Implications for Estimation of the Postmortem Interval Based on Insect Development Times*†

The association between insect development and temperature is well established. Thermal summation using accumulated degree-day measures is commonly used. However, the time at which evidence is collected is important in these estimates. The aim of this study was to provide a simulated model of the effect of temperatures on six dipteran species commonly associated with cadavers, from the death scene to the refrigerator, and finally at the time of autopsy. Temperatures measurements were sampled over a 16-month period from the external environment (external to the mortuary), within the mortuary refrigerator, and within the mortuary autopsy suite. Monte Carlo simulation using accumulated degree-days (ADD) was used to estimate the variations based on the mean and standard deviation of the temperature measurements. It was found that there was a negative correlation between the base temperature of the fly species (lowest temperature at which the flies will survive) and developmental likelihood. Species with high base temperatures (Chrysomya albiceps, Chrysomya chloropyga, and Musca domestica) were less likely to continue development in refrigerators than species with lower base temperatures (Lucilia sericata and Piophila casei). The findings of this study highlight the importance of recording temperature measurements and the period of refrigeration on PMI estimation especially when continued development occurs in spite of a period of cooling of the insect evidence.     

Self-identification of electronically scanned signatures (ESS) and digitally constructed signatures (DCS)

The use of electronic signatures as a form of identification is increasingly common, yet they have been shown to lack the dynamic features found in online signatures. In this study, handwritten signatures were scanned to produce electronically scanned signatures (ESS) which were then digitally altered to produce digitally constructed signatures (DCS). The ESS and DCS were presented back to participants to identify which were genuine. Only 1% of participants correctly identified all signatures, with a mean score of 57.6% identifications. The lack of self-recognition of ESS raises questions on their reliability and usefulness as means of personal identification.     

Can someone fabricate verifiable details when planning in advance? It all depends on the crime scenario

In the current study we examined the effect of having the opportunity to plan an alibi in advance on the suitability of the verifiability approach in two crime scenarios that differed in their opportunity to carry out innocent activities at the time of the crime. One hundred and two participants imagined being involved in stealing money either from a café at a time when it was open (allows innocent activities) or from a bank at a time when it was closed (does not allow innocent activities). We asked participants about their strategies and difficulties in preparing a verifiable alibi in advance, and to write down their prepared alibis. The participants in both groups found this task difficult and did not differ in the difficulties they experienced, however they differed in their strategies (plans to include true witnesses) and actual success in the task. Participants in the Café scenario provided 30% more verifiable details than the participants in the Bank scenario. Strategies and difficulties mentioned by the participants are presented in the paper, and the implications of the study's results on the application of the verifiability approach are discussed.     

公安法学课程实践教学模式之探索

法学是一门应用性社会科学,法学教育的生命力在于其实践性。实践教学作为完成法律教育系统工程的重要组成和有效途径,既可以检阅、修正和巩固已有的专业知识和理论体系,又有利于形塑法学专业思维,强化法律职业伦理修养,更有利于训练法律专业应用能力,因而是高素质法学人才培养的最有效方式。笔者结合辽宁警官高等专科学校实际情况,通过对实践教学的逐步探索,在实践中总结了多种有效的体现公安教学的独具特色的参与式实战实训教学模式,希望对同仁有所裨益。     

California Budget Simulation

The California Budget Challenge produced by Next10 provides a useful and intuitive tool for instructors to introduce students to public budgeting. Students will reason through a series of budgeting decisions using information provided on the fiscal and practical implications of their choices. The Challenge is updated with each budget cycle, so it provides an up-to-date simulation that incorporates the effects of current broader economic forces on state budgets. Therefore, the California Budget Challenge allows instructors to reinforce theoretical material on budgeting with an engaging “real life” application.     

Groups,Decision Rules,and Negotiation Outcomes: Simulating the Negotiator's Dilemma

The negotiator's dilemma is a vexing problem (structurally similar to the prisoner's dilemma), but it is made more complicated by the fact that many negotiations involve teams of negotiators. Although it is widely recognized that the behavior of groups of people can deviate in important ways from the behavior of individuals, the implications of this for the negotiator's dilemma are unclear. For this article, I have used a computer simulation to explore the impact of different decision rules (majority rule, consensus, and weakest link) on how the approach of groups to negotiations might differ. The results suggest that the use of different decision rules can greatly complicate negotiations. While the majority rule is quite versatile in multiple contexts, a pairing of weakest link and consensus decision rules is highly problematic for finding a negotiated settlement.     

模拟综合实践演练在公安教学中的运用

利用模拟现场进行教学实验是公安院校教学的一种专门手段,一直发挥着独特的作用.模拟综合实战演练就是让学生综合利用所学的公安业务知识,按照实战部门的实际操作程序进行,通过模拟现场勘查,进行实战演练,以提高学生的实战能力并检验教学效果.