热连轧带钢生产过程中的温度场模拟

温度是热连轧带钢生产中影响产品的组织和性能重要参数,采用ANSYS有限元对热连轧生产过程的温度场进行数值模拟。模拟结果表明:高压水除鳞对带钢温度场影响相当大,高压水除鳞后,带钢端部和表面温度显著下降,带钢中心的温度基本保持不变,表面和芯部温度梯度大,除鳞后在轧件内部热传导作用下,温度梯度越来越小,最后整个轧件除端部外温度趋于均匀。     

高职经济类(非会计专业)会计学原理课程模拟实验效果分析

作者对经济类非会计专业学生所开设的会计学原理课程进行模拟实验,本文利用抽样调查的方法,对实验效果进行了分析,得到一些启示,并提出了改进模拟实验的建议。     

The Past as Prologue: An Economist''s Tentative Prognosis for the New Millennium

The past millennium witnessed three intellectual revolutions, namely, the Renaissance, the Reformation, and the Enlightenment. A fourth such revolution, the High Tech or Information Revolution, started after the end of World War II, and is still evolving. The computerization of all sciences has now bridged the former Great Divide between the natural and social sciences. Today, it is widely believed that the 21st century will be the century of biology, and that social scientists will soon base their analytical work in the physical realities of human biology and psychology.     

国内外人类认知系统模型研究进展

对什么是人类认知系统和研究人类认知系统的动机进行了介绍,并对较好的人类认知系统模型进行了归纳和比较,最后,指出了当前人类认知系统建模所面临的主要问题,对人类认知系统模型研究的发展进行了探讨。     

Observations Regarding Key Operational Realities in a Compstat Model of Policing

With nearly 4 million adults under supervision in the US, probationers make up the largest group of offenders under the supervision of the criminal justice system. Yet the sanction of probation has received relatively little study. Because probation is generally a local endeavor, coordinated data collection is rare. In this article, the changing dynamics of felony probation populations in California over two decades are examined using dynamic systems simulation modeling. In addition to demonstrating the utility of this underused modeling technique, the legal and social sources of changes in the use of felony probation in California’s criminal justice system are discussed, as are the practical and policy implications of these changes.     

基于人因的道路交通安全评价研究

驾驶人是影响道路交通安全的主要因素，驾驶过程中随着外界交通环境和自身心理和生理的变化，可以从人的因素来评价道路交通的安全性和舒适性。通过驾驶人驾驶车辆的主客观评价，可以得出道路交通环境对人的心理上和生理上的影响程度。应用实验进行宜人性主观评价，驾驶人驾驶负荷评价和道路交通安全模拟驾驶评价。     

Simulating Globalization: Oil in Chad

The conflicting interests that underlie globalization can be difficult to grasp in a traditional classroom setting. The simulation presented here challenges students to examine the many different actors operating in the international system today. The focus is the Chad–Cameroon oil pipeline—a landmark example of cooperation and conflict between international institutions, non-governmental organizations and business interests. Given a scenario, students assume these roles and negotiate for the continued success of the pipeline. All the materials to run this exercise are included and if utilized, can provide a positive active learning experience.     

Space–Time Patterns of Risk: A Cross National Assessment of Residential Burglary Victimization

Using epidemiological techniques for testing disease contagion, it has recently been found that in the wake of a residential burglary, the risk to nearby homes is temporarily elevated. This paper demonstrates the ubiquity of this phenomenon by analyzing space–time patterns of burglary in 10 areas, located in five different countries. While the precise patterns vary, for all areas, houses within 200 m of a burgled home were at an elevated risk of burglary for a period of at least two weeks. For three of the five countries, differences in these patterns may partly be explained by simple differences in target density. The findings inform theories of crime concentration and offender targeting strategies, and have implications for crime forecasting and crime reduction more generally.

突发公共安全事件扩散动力学模型仿真研究

由于自然—社会—经济系统互动随社会发展不断增加,突发公共安全事件更多地呈现出扩散化的形式,产生的影响远大于单一事件的发生。本文以复杂系统理论和复杂网络理论为基础并借鉴灾害链的相关研究,分别针对单一突发公共安全事件、突发公共安全事件链式扩散和突发公共安全事件网络扩散的特征、共性进行探索,建立事件发生和扩散的复杂系统动力学模型,通过突发公共安全事件扩散网络的动力学模型进行仿真实验,进一步探索不同网络结构和影响因素下的突发事件扩散机理。在复杂网络中,不同网络结构、事件爆发阈值、事件间关联度都会对突发事件的扩散产生影响。     

情景模拟：卓有成效的体验式培训

情景模拟式培训是通过模拟事件的角色、环境和发生发展的过程,让学员经过亲身体验和感受,研究分析事件各要素之间的关系,把握事件发展的客观规律,掌握有关理论和技能的一种培训方式。搞好情景模拟式培训,关键是要认真设计方案,严格把握操作流程。高素质的教师在情景模拟式培训中起着主导性的作用。