Anti-American,pro-Chinese sentiment in South Korea

Anti-American, pro-Chinese sentiment is spreading widely in South Korea. This phenomenon is caused by extreme US-ROK policy dissension over matters related to North Korea, especially the nuclear questions, and South Korea's emotional attachment for China based on historical and geopolitical factors. In order to prevent this irrational situation from damaging the mutual interests of both Washington and Seoul, the two capitals should come up with mutually acceptable options for nuclear issues—placing more gravity and priority on dialogue over sanctions as a matter of strategy. Coercive measures can be employed only as a last resort. In order to maintain peace, to fulfill the political responsibility as a great power in East Asia, and to reciprocate to South Korea's positive expectation, Beijing should play a more constructive role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issues and in inducing Pyongyang to open up and reform more aggressively.     

“负责任外空行为”议程与太空安全机制新动向

近年来,太空安全环境发生急剧变化,各国太空军事化步伐加速,商业航天崛起,太空拥挤加剧,太空军民融合加深。在此背景下,英国于2020年发起一项名为“负责任外空行为”的太空军控新议程。该议程推出后,美国积极参与并试图将之导向一项自愿承诺禁止地基动能反卫星试验的国际协议,这意味着其太空军控立场的重大转向。美国意图借“负责任外空行为”议程干扰对手发展不对称反卫星手段、强化太空同盟、划定太空威慑“红线”、策应太空环境议题。“负责任外空行为”已成为太空安全机制领域最有影响力的议程,不仅因为其引发了大国间政治矛盾,还因其体现了太空安全机制的发展动向。在新的太空安全环境下,太空军事安全和民事安全的国际机制正交叉融合发展,各机制的议程模式将更加开放、参与者更加多样、控制行为的路径更加主流。     

OF FIRE AND REJUVENATION: IN SEARCH OF THE ‘POST-’ IN ‘POST- APARTHEID’

ABSTRACT

In the novels, Scatter the ashes and go (Ravan 2002) and Rumours (Jacana Media 2013), Mongane Wally Serote depicts post-apartheid through a leitmotif central to which the soldier of the African National Congress military wing, ‘Umkhonto We Sizwe’ (MK), is ostensibly caught in an interrupted odyssey. In Scatter the Ashes and go, this soldier has returned from exile in various Southern African countries to a South Africa that is on the threshold of the post-apartheid era. By contrast, in Rumours, the soldier, having arrived from exile in 1990, then goes away to Mali in search of a solution for his post-traumatic stress disorder. The article imputes these disruptions on to the failure to ‘properly’ mourn the victims of apartheid's extra-judicial killing squads, and goes on to note that, as a result of Serote's attention to the subsequent angst, post-apartheid appears as a continuum of trauma. The discussion then proceeds to posit that the resolutions to these diversions are hinted at in these novels’ elaborate motifs of fire, and proposes that the depictions of this pattern recall how Batswana suture the spiritual, psychological and social fractures consequent upon death – especially the death that occurs unnaturally, and upon the breadwinner's return home from a long absence. The bulk of the exploration pays attention to the nuances of this symbol of fire, recognising it as an integral component of a social rite populated by a dynamic interplay between poetry and music.     

环境犯罪学与社区警务

环境犯罪学研究产生犯罪的环境原因。其主要理论包括:防卫空间理论、破窗理论和防卫环境设计理论。借鉴这些理论与实践措施,对我国社区警务有积极意义。     

Spatially strong: Dead Sea Works Ltd. and the building up of the southeast of Israel, 1948–1964

This is the story of the formative years of one of Israel’s big corporations – the Dead Sea Works Ltd. (DSW). It concerns the interrelations between space and labor, told through an account of four transitions: (1) The transfer of the company from England to Israel with its establishment in 1952; (2) The move of its central office from Jerusalem to Be’er Sheva; (3) The dismantling of the original workers’ camp near the factory (in Sodom) and the move of the workers’ dwellings to three different towns; and (4) The transfer of representation from Tel Aviv to Be’er Sheva. The case of the DSW, I argue, is a ‘geohistory’ of labor that exemplifies the construction of the northeastern Negev’s social space, especially the making of scale. This ‘scale-making’ was an ongoing process of scaling up (from the local to the regional) and scaling down (from the global to the state level, and from the center to the periphery). Through this process of scale-making, the workers of the DSW gained a great deal of power and became spatially strong.     

北约核政策与核态势的回顾及展望

北大西洋公约组织作为军事同盟,自建立之初就以美国核武器的"延伸威慑"为安全保障。冷战时期,欧洲曾是美苏争夺霸权的重要战场,双方进行了疯狂的核军备竞赛,欧洲长时间笼罩在核阴云之中。冷战结束后,欧洲各国从核阴霾中成功走出,在美国的主导下,北约实力逐步走向全盛时期。出于对后冷战时期国际安全形势的乐观判断,北约的关注重点从单纯的传统军事防御向更加广泛的非传统安全领域扩展,核武器在北约防卫中的作用不断减弱,核武器规模不断裁减。然而,2014年的乌克兰危机给欧洲的战略格局带来巨大冲击,俄与美欧关系降至冰点,双方开始轮番展示核力量,核阴影再次重现欧洲上空。从北约核态势的历史演变轨迹和乌克兰危机对北约核态势的冲击中,人们能够窥见北约未来安全发展态势。当前北约与俄罗斯核态势的变化,预示着未来核竞赛模式与风险都会与冷战时期有所不同,意味着核门槛的降低以及核武器使用风险的增加,这对全球核不扩散机制、全球核裁军进程与全球军事竞争模式都将产生深远影响。     

On filtering longitudinal public opinion data: Issues in identification and representation of true change

The Kalman filter is a popular tool in engineering and economics. It is becoming popular in political science, touted for its abilities to reduce measurement error and produce more precise estimates of true public opinion. Its application to survey measures of public opinion varies in important ways compared to the traditionally understood Kalman filter. It makes a priori assumptions about the variance of the sampling error that would not usually be made and does so in a way that violates an important property of the Kalman filter. Consequently, the behavior of the filter modified for public opinion measures is less well-known. Through simulations we assess whether and to what extent filtering: reliably detects the characteristics of time series; does so across series with different rates of autoregressive decay; and does so when the variance of the sampling error is unknown. We also examine whether the filtered data represents the level of true underlying variance and the extent to which filtering assists or hinders our ability to detect exogenous shocks. We learn a numbers of things. Most importantly, taking into account sampling error variance when filtering data can work well, though its performance does vary. First, filtering works best identifying time series characteristics when assuming a stationary process, even if the underlying process contains a unit root. Second, the performance of filtering drops off when we incorrectly specify the variance of the sampling error, and especially when we overestimate it. Third, when estimating exogenous shocks it is better to make no a priori assumptions regarding a measurement error variance unless we are absolutely certain we know what it is. In fact, applying the filter without specifying the measurement error variance is more often than not the best choice.     

Nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula: strategic adaptation,the Abe administration and extended deterrence in the face of uncertainty

Abstract

In the wake of two nuclear tests in 2016, an additional test in 2017 and a series of missile launches by North Korea in 2016–17, Japan's government is facing a critical set of security challenges. These require adaptation and careful planning by the Abe administration and raise important questions about the future of Japanese defence policy, alliance relations with the United States, and cooperation between Japan and the Republic of Korea. The following article considers both the history and current state of relations between Tokyo, Washington and Seoul, the relationship between elite and public opinion within Japan, and the character of Prime Minister Abe's leadership at a time of acute strategic risk. While the danger of conflict in northeast Asia should not be minimized, the gravity of the current crisis potentially offers an important opportunity for policy innovation for the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).     

小区停车位权属分析

物权法草案第六稿确定了业主对小区的停车位享有优先使用权,尊重了业主的利益和开发商的利益.但其停车位的归属采用约定的方式作为优先的选择方式,虽体现了意思自治,但不利于保护业主的利益,应采用法定方式优先,以约定为补充.     

自我选择的客观物质性奠基——时间和空间

自我选择以自我存在为前提,然而却以境况为奠基,而境况无非存在于时间和空间之中。因此,时间和空间也就成为自我选择的基础和前提。自我选择的根本意义不只是适应境况,更为重要的是在时间和空间中通过实践不断创生出“对象性存在”,正是这种对象性存在才真正展现出人的本质力量。