The wisdom of crowds: What do citizens forecast for the 2015 British General Election?

Who do you think will win in your constituency? Most citizens correctly answer this question, and groups are even better at answering it. Combining individual forecasts results in the ‘wisdom of crowds’ explained by Condorcet's jury theorem. This paper demonstrates the accuracy of citizen forecasts in seven British General Elections between 1964 and 2010, and reports what citizens interviewed in February and March forecasted for the election in May 2015. ‘Citizen forecasting’ predicts vote shares and winners in constituency elections, and seat numbers and governments in national elections. The paper also introduces a new method for predicting vote shares from citizen forecasts. Citizen forecasts are direct, accurate, and comprehensible. Pollsters should collect them and communicate their results more often.     

Estimates of Repeat Victimization Using the National Crime Victimization Survey

Many crime victims experience multiple victimizations over time. Estimating the rate of repeat victimization from a longitudinal survey, however, is difficult because individuals often have missing data for some of the interviews. We use data from the 1996–98 U.S. National Crime Victimization Survey to explore potential effects of missing data on estimated rates of repeat violent victimizations in individuals. We introduce two algorithms for estimating repeat victimization rates, using logistic models to impute values for individuals who have partial data. These models are applied to estimate rates of repeat victimization for all violent crimes, and separately for crimes of domestic violence. Estimates show substantial sensitivity to the form of the model used.     

Measuring Sexual Violence on Campus: Climate Surveys and Vulnerable Groups

ABSTRACT

Since the 2014 Not Alone report on campus sexual assault, the use of climate surveys to measure sexual violence on campuses across the United States has increased considerably. The current study utilizes a quasi meta-analysis approach to examine the utility of general campus climate surveys, which include a measure of sexual violence, in comparison to sexual assault specific climate surveys, in measuring student sexual assault experiences. Past research has highlighted the need to not only understand campus sexual assault prevalence rates for the general student population, but also the specific risk posed to more vulnerable populations such as the lesbian, gay, bisexual, questioning/queer community (LGBQ) and Native American students. Results indicate that general campus climate surveys may be underestimating both the sexual victimization of the general student body as well as that of LGBQ and Native American students. Research and policy recommendations that focus on improved measurement of campus sexual assault experiences are discussed.     

Experimenting with a national sample: a Dutch survey of prejudice

The notion that beliefs and attitudes are flexible and often inconsistent has become a commonplace in social and political psychology. Beliefs and attitudes adapt to varying circumstances, issues and argumentative positions. This was the starting point for a Dutch survey on prejudice towards immigrants carried out in 1998. Measures of beliefs and attitudes were constructed in order to capture diverse aspects of prejudice. Some of these measures focused on negative evaluations of the characteristics of immigrant groups, others on the implications of prejudice, such as opinions on the rights and obligations of immigrants. In order to determine the flexibility and variability of prejudice, key aspects of the attitudes were experimentally manipulated, such as the (characteristics of the) target immigrant group, the arguments leading to these attitudes or the external support they received. The results show that prejudice is a variable set of attitudes for which a precise line between subjective bias and realistic concerns about immigrants cannot be easily drawn.     

Do citizens care about government debt? Evidence from survey experiments on budgetary priorities

Ever since the Great Recession, public debt has become politicised. Some research suggests that citizens are fiscally conservative, while other research shows that they punish governments for implementing fiscal consolidation. This begs the question of whether and how much citizens care about debt. We argue that debt is not a priority for citizens because reducing it involves spending and tax trade-offs. Using a split-sample experiment and a conjoint experiment in four European countries, we show that fiscal consolidation at the cost of spending cuts or taxes hikes is less popular than commonly assumed. Revenue-based consolidation is especially unpopular, but expenditure-based consolidation is also contested. Moreover, the public has clear fiscal policy priorities: People do not favour lower debt and taxes, but they support higher progressive taxes to pay for more government spending. The article furthers our understanding of public opinion on fiscal policies and the likely political consequences of austerity.     

传染性法氏囊病病毒的生态学研究——非鸡禽鸟类自然感染传染性法氏囊病病毒的血清学调查

用传染性法氏囊病病毒（ＩＢＤＶ）单克隆抗体夹心阻断ＥＬＩＳＡ对麻雀、鸭、鹅进行了ＩＢＤＶ血清学调查，麻雀的阳性率为７．４％（４／５４），鸭的阳性率为９５．５％（３６３／３８０），鹅的阳性率为９．４％（１１／１１７）。表明ＩＢＤＶ传播已非常广泛，提示麻雀、鸭、鹅特别是鸭在ＩＢＤＶ生态和传播中可能起重要作用。     

The integrity of the game: exploring attitudes of professional male athlete criminality#

It has been argued that sports act as a social institution in the United States, encompassing many network headlines and reports. Resulting from the popularization of sports entertainment has been an enhanced insight into the criminal behavior of professional athletes. This research sought to understand how the general public perceives alleged professional athlete criminality. Utilizing household mail surveys with residents in Pennsylvania, respondents rated the seriousness, wrongness, and punitiveness of alleged athlete criminality depicted in five different vignettes. Results indicated that the strongest predictor of attitudes between professional athletes and non-athletes was offense type; more specifically gambling, which this sample rated more serious and wrong for professional athletes compared to non-athletes. This indicated that alleged offenses that may be perceived as attacking the integrity of the sport may be viewed more harshly.     

Revisiting Respondent “Fatigue Bias” in the National Crime Victimization Survey

For more than three decades the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)—and its predecessor the National Crime Survey (NCS)—have been used to calculate estimates of nonfatal crime in the United States. Though the survey has contributed much to our understanding of criminal victimization, some aspects of the survey’s methodology continue to be analyzed (e.g., repeat victimizations, proxy interviews, and bounding). Surprisingly, one important aspect of NCVS methodology has escaped this scrutiny: respondent fatigue. A potential source of nonsampling error, fatigue bias is thought to manifest as respondents become “test wise” after repeated exposure to NCVS survey instruments. Using a special longitudinal NCVS data file, we revisit the presence and influence of respondent fatigue in the NCVS. Specifically, we test the theory that respondents exposed to longer interviews during their first interview are more likely to refuse to participate in the survey 6 months later. Contrary to expectations based on the literature, results show that prior reporting of victimization and exposure to a longer interview is not a significant predictor of a noninterview during the following time-in-sample once relevant individual characteristics are accounted for. Findings do demonstrate significant effects of survey mode and several respondent characteristics on subsequent survey non-participation.     

Can experts judge elections? Testing the validity of expert judgments for measuring election integrity

Expert surveys have been used to measure a wide variety of phenomena in political science, ranging from party positions, to corruption, to the quality of democracy and elections. However, expert judgments raise important validity concerns, both about the object being measured as well as the experts. It is argued in this article that the context of evaluation is also important to consider when assessing the validity of expert surveys. This is even more important for expert surveys with a comprehensive, worldwide scope, such as democracy or corruption indices. This article tests the validity of expert judgments about election integrity – a topic of increasing concern to both the international community and academics. Evaluating expert judgments of election integrity provides an important contribution to the literature evaluating the validity of expert surveys as instruments of measurement as: (1) the object under study is particularly complex to define and multifaceted; and (2) election integrity is measured in widely varying institutional contexts, ranging from electoral autocracies to liberal democracies. Three potential sources of bias are analysed (the object, the experts and the context), using a unique new dataset on election integrity entitled the ‘Perceptions of Electoral Integrity’ dataset. The data include over 800 experts in 66 parliamentary and presidential elections worldwide. It is found that validity of expert judgments about election integrity is increased if experts are asked to provide factual information (rather than evaluative judgments), and if they are asked to evaluate election day (rather than pre‐election) integrity. It is also found that ideologically polarised elections and elections of lower integrity increase expert disagreement about election integrity. The article concludes with suggestions for researchers using the expert survey data on election integrity on how to check the validity of their data and adjust their analyses accordingly, and outlines some remaining challenges for future data collection using expert surveys.     

Voting for Movement Parties in Southern Europe: The Role of Protest and Digital Information

In recent years ‘movement parties’ such as Syriza in Greece, the Movimento 5 Stelle in Italy, Podemos in Spain and—to a lesser extent—Bloco de Esquerda in Portugal shook national party systems, breaking the consolidated dynamics of political competition. Despite growing interest in movement parties, there has been scant attention to the role of citizens adopting unconventional forms of action and using digital media in accounting for their electoral performance. To fill this gap, four original internet-based post-electoral surveys are employed showing that protesters and digital media users are more likely to vote for these parties, despite important country differences.