Intergenerational transmission of longevity is not affected by other familial factors: evidence from 16,905 Dutch families from Zeeland, 1812-1962

ABSTRACT

Studies have shown that long-lived individuals seem to pass their survival advantage on to their offspring. Offspring of long-lived parents had a lifelong survival advantage over individuals without long-lived parents, making them more likely to become long-lived themselves. We test whether the survival advantage enjoyed by offspring of long-lived individuals is explained by environmental factors. 101,577 individuals from 16,905 families in the 1812–1886 Zeeland cohort were followed over time. To prevent that certain families were overrepresented in our data, disjoint family trees were selected. Offspring was included if the age at death of both parents was known. Our analyses show that multiple familial resources are associated with survival within the first 5 years of life, with stronger maternal than paternal effects. However, between ages 5 and 100 both parents contribute equally to offspring’s survival chances. After age 5, offspring of long-lived fathers and long-lived mothers had a 16-19% lower chance of dying at any given point in time than individuals without long-lived parents. This survival advantage is most likely genetic in nature, as it could not be explained by other, tested familial resources and is transmitted equally by fathers and mothers.     

Criminal Careers in Cyberspace: Examining Website Failure within Child Exploitation Networks

Publically accessible, illegal, websites represent an additional challenge for control agencies, but also an opportunity for researchers to monitor, in real time, changes in criminal careers. Using a repeated measures design, we examine evolution in the networks that form around child exploitation (CE) websites, over a period of 60 weeks, and determine which criminal career dimensions predict website failure. Network data were collected using a custom-designed web-crawler. Baseline survival rates were compared to networks surrounding (legal) sexuality and sports websites. Websites containing CE material were no more likely to fail than comparisons. Cox regression analyses suggest that increased volumes of CE code words and images are associated with premature failure. Websites that are more popular have higher odds of survival. We show that traditional criminal career dimensions can be transferred to the context of online CE and constitute some of the key determinants of an interrupted career.     

From Maltreatment to Delinquency: Service Trajectories After a First Intervention of Child Protection Services

The relationship between maltreatment in childhood and delinquency in adolescence is recognized. However, the data available do not reveal what proportion of children under the supervision of child protection services (CPS) later transfer to youth legal services, nor the sequence of services provided by these two systems. This study sketches a preliminary portrait of Youth Criminal Justice Act (YCJA) incidence among Quebec children and adolescents as a consequence of a first crime after initial CPS case closure (N = 14,252). It quantifies the scope of the phenomenon and identifies the best predictors of YCJA incidence from among the administrative data available. Survival analysis revealed a 15.4% YCJA incidence for the entire cohort in the five and a half years following termination of initial intervention; boys between 12 and 17 years old when their initial CPS cases were closed were at the greatest risk (27.2%).     

Competing Risks, Persistence, and Desistance in Analyzing Recidivism

A statistical procedure is developed to analyze recidivism in samples whichare subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes ofreconviction. This allows for a more accurate study of individuals'transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following aspecific type of conviction. The use of a nonparametric approach forinvestigating failure in the presence of other acting causes is shown;initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different typesof offenses are obtained, and the method can be used both to display thedata and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survivaltimes. An exponential mixture model for competing risks is presented insuch a way that it allows us to adjust for concomitant variables and toassess their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction forpredetermined types of offenses and desistance and of the hazards ofreconviction; a method for assessing calibration of predicted survivalprobabilities is suggested. A 21-year follow-up of persons convicted ofindecent assault on a female in 1973 illustrates the methods; we find ahigh probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previoussexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard ofreconviction for young chronic offenders.     

山区水库移民女性生活发展状况研究——以X省Y县Z村水库移民为例

在女性群体中有一个特殊的人群--农村水库移民女性.从对移民家庭发展历程中经历的搬迁、建房和土地利用这三个生活场景变迁的描述中可以看出,作为妻子和母亲双重角色的移民女性群体的社会适应过程,及其对抗危机策略中所表现的灵活实用和开放发展的特质.     

In defense of human rights of indigenous people

The nations of the world are generally shaped by a cultural diversity, which must be preserved. This leads to a fundamental and essential defense of indigenous groups and their human rights. The purpose of this article is to highlight the importance of defending human rights of indigenous cucapa, natives settled in the northeast of the state of Baja California in the Delta of the Colorado River, especially with regards to their fishing rights, which is their main source of food and survival. The environmental laws that have been issued in the country have greatly affected them, banning commercial fishing in some areas and totally in many other areas, adding to that a not to subtle performance by the appropriate regulation authorities, preventing them from fishing sea bass, hence their consumption and marketing, which is reflected in their socioeconomic status. For this reason and in response to this violation of their human rights, women have decided to enter a cucapa womb strike, which threatens the existence of the tribe by not reproducing.     

Playing the Diversity Card: Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy under the Salmans

ABSTRACT

Since the 2003 regime change in Iraq and the 2011 Arab uprisings, the political map of the Middle East has been in flux. Regional actors have taken advantage of emerging windows of opportunity, which have affected the outcome of this process. Saudi Arabia’s role as an aspiring regional hegemon in the region is salient: the country’s assertive course in shaping its neighbourhood coincides with a more independent foreign policy that goes beyond the traditional US alliance and seeks to diversify its international partners. This diversification of Saudi foreign policy since the ascension to the throne of King Salman in 2015 is explained by using the IR concept of hedging.     

What parties want from their leaders: How office achievement trumps electoral performance as a driver of party leader survival

Rational choice theories of political behaviour start from the premise that parties seek policy, office, and votes. In accordance with this premise, previous research has shown that electoral performance and office achievement independently affect party leader survival. However, we know little about how goal attainment interacts across these two domains. This paper proposes a novel hypothesis stating that intrinsic goals (office) dominate over purely instrumental ones (votes). As a result, the impact of electoral performance on party leader survival should be conditional on office achievement. Using data on over 500 party leaders in 14 parliamentary democracies between 1965 and 2012, we show that electoral performance and office achievement strongly affect leadership turnover. However, we also demonstrate that the electoral performance effect disappears when parties enter or exit office at the same time. These results constitute the best direct evidence to date that parties prioritise office achievement over electoral success.     

Perception of corruption by traffic police and taxi drivers in Bukavu DR Congo: the limits of moral analysis

ABSTRACT

This study explores how traffic police, taxi drivers and anticorruption agencies each perceive corruption in Bukavu in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Thirteen traffic police officers were interviewed, three focus groups of four to five taxi drivers were conducted, and two members of anti-corruption agencies were interviewed. Findings suggest that while western NGOs and anti-corruption agencies consider corruption immoral and a major barrier to development, both the traffic police and taxi drivers perceive it as a normal expression of solidarity and a sine qua non condition for survival. For them, corruption is a system that provides job security, greater access to food, accommodation, healthcare and education in the dysfunctional and failed Congolese State. This suggests that framing corruption in the transport sector of Bukavu solely as a moral issue and seeking to eliminate it without establishing a new system that effectively meets the needs of the population may result in more serious social problems than the corruption itself.     

生存·本能·阿Q精神

阿Q是世界文学之林一个不朽的文学典型。从他诞生以来,不同国度、不同层次、不同时代的人们从未停止对他的争论。从他的精神胜利法、恋爱悲剧、革命三方面来分析他的生存困境,可看出“阿Q精神”是人类社会的一种带有普遍性的心理现象。再读《阿Q正传》时,我们面临的应该是灵魂的拷问。