Recidivism among drug offenders: A survival analysis of the effects of offender characteristics,type of offense,and two types of intervention

The determinants of recidivism are increasingly becoming the focus of public concern. This study explores the relative effect of type of intervention, offender characteristics, and type of incident offense on time to a petition to revoke probation and time to a probation revocation. Our analysis of intervention effects includes both parametric and nonparametric estimation procedures. Estimating five distributional forms of survival and a proportional hazard model for each measure of recidivism, the analysis indicates no difference in the effect of a program of drug monitoring and treatment, compared to drug monitoring only, for either of the two measures of recidivism. In addition, findings indicate that younger offenders and African American offenders have a shorter time to a petition to revoke probation. We also found a reduced time to failure for a probation revocation for African American offenders and offenders with a prior arrest record. Our findings offer empirical support for a reconsideration of the type of intervention effective in deterring offenders while on probation.     

班昭《女诫》的教育思想探析

文章以汉代历史文化为背景,依据班昭的人生经历、家学承传和文本内容,论证《女诫》的女性教育思想,即是劣势中女性生存智慧的教育,及两性平等教育的理念。同时也论证了《女诫》在汉代群体自觉意识向个体自觉意识转变过程中的重大贡献。     

Threats to Leaders’ Political Survival and Pro-Government Militia Formation

It is puzzling why leaders delegate authority to pro-government militias (PGMs) at the expense of professional armed forces. Several state-level explanations, ranging from low state capacity to blame evasion for human rights violations have been proposed for the establishment of PGM linkages. These explanations lack focus on the individuals making decisions to form PGMs: national leaders. It is argued that leaders create linkages with PGMs to facilitate leaders’ political survival in the event of their deposition. Threats to leaders’ survival come from the military, foreign powers, or domestic actors outside the ruling coalition. As costs of leader deposition are low for the state, leaders facing threats from one or all of these sources must invest in protection from outside of the security apparatus. The argument is tested through data on PGM linkage formation and threats to political survival. Results show that leaders under coup threat are more likely to form PGM linkages, while threats from foreign actors make leaders particularly more likely to form linkages with ethnic or religious PGMs. The findings strongly suggest that PGM linkage formation is driven by leader-level desire for political survival, rather than a host of state-level explanations.     

志愿服务与社会工作专业发展

2008年,是中国人“难忘”和“不寻常”的一年,也是中国社会工作“难得”和“大发展”的一年。作为舶来品的社会工作,经历过由志愿性到专业性社会工作的发展历程。2008年的四川汶川大地震和北京奥运会,使志愿服务在中国参与率俱增,志愿精神深入人心。志愿服务帮助中国人民战胜特大灾害,伴随北京人民向世界贡献了“无与伦比”、“最伟大的”奥运会,同时推进了中国现代文明程度的提升,促进了中国社会工作专业的发展。     

实力政治与国家生存——马克斯·韦伯民族主义思想的政治解读

马克斯·韦伯的民族主义思想,一直受到许多思想家的关注,也引起了诸多的争论.本文试图把韦伯的民族主义思想与他对现代政治的理解结合起来分析.通过考察韦伯民族主义产生的思想背景和现实历史条件,笔者认为韦伯是一个政治上的民族主义者.在韦伯的思想视界里,处于现代世界体系中的民族国家充满了为了国家生存而展开的激烈政治斗争,实力政治是民族国家的必要基础,国家生存和大国梦想是民族国家最主要的政治诉求,也是韦伯民族主义思想的精髓与实质.韦伯正是以此来理解德国在世界政治中的现实处境和成为一个政治大国的希望的.     

生态文明视角下当代中国先进文化建设研究

先进文化就是能够反映和支撑社会历史前进方向的文化,它是人类文明进步的结晶,代表未来的发展方向,代表人民的根本利益,是推动人类社会前进的精神动力。"与时俱进"是先进文化的基本特征。从整个人类文化的角度看,人类文明的前进方向就是先进文化的前进方向。生态文明是继工业文明之后的一种新的生存和发展理念。当代中国的先进文化建设应反映生态文明的理念和要求。     

试论职工疗养院的生存与发展

在社会主义市场经济条件下,各级工会举办的疗养院都经历一个生存发展难以维系的艰辛历程。职工疗养事业要想在新的形势下发展壮大,就必须面对现实,转变观念,放弃等、靠、要的思想,坚持改革,适应市场,办出特色,提高水平。     

Unusual Death of a Transvestite: Identification of Crime Weapon and Survival Time*

Abstract: The authors report a case of a transvestite found murdered near his automobile with several lacerated contused wounds to the face and cranial fractures. Autopsy revealed that the cause of death was a serious head trauma with subdural and subarachnoidal hemorrhages. In order to identify the crime weapon, a scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used which revealed metallic residue on the skin fragments with the same molecular composition of the car paint. As for survival time, antibody anti‐beta‐amyloid precursor protein (APP) was applied to brain fragments and brainstem tissue, allowing for axonal varicosities (which form 2 to 3 h following death) to be observed under the optic microscope. So, by using SEM we understood that the fatal cranial‐encephalic lesions were the result of the victim’s head being repeatedly struck against the car door while anti‐betaAPP led to the understanding that the time elapsed between injury and death was less than 2 to 3 h.     

论宅基地使用权的功能

宅基地使用权是一项重要的民事权利,其流转受到我国法律和政策的严格限制,但社会对于宅基地使用权能否流转的问题一直存在激烈争议,因此亟待学理探讨。对宅基地使用权功能的分析,能够为宅基地使用权能否流转的问题提供一个可资参考的判断依据。宅基地使用权的根本功能是保障生存利益的实现,必备功能是利用宅基地取得收益。基于根本功能,该权利的流转有助于生存利益在更大范围内实现。基于必备功能,实现该权利的交换价值符合正义原则。通过功能分析的方法可知,宅基地使用权的自由流转具有正当性。     

Survival models of recidivism among juvenile delinquents

Among juveniles, the probability of recidivism has a curvilinear relationship to age. Rates of reoffending do not simply increase or decrease with age, but rather, they increase as a function of age up to a certain point of peak activity and decrease with increasing age thereafter. Because of this, the forms of recidivism functions between cohorts of widely varying ages will differ considerably. This renders inapplicable one model for the analysis of recidivism rates which assumes proportional hazards (Cox proportional hazards regression models). Appropriate models will posit curved nonmonotonic hazard functions. This paper compares fits of the exponential, Weibull, and log-normal models to recidivism data collected on samples of chronic juvenile offenders and finds generally closer estimation of the recidivism functions using the latter model. Implications for the development of models of recidivism are discussed.