Leader Language and Political Survival Strategies

Authoritarian leaders’ language provides clues to their survival strategies for remaining in office. This line of inquiry fits within an emerging literature that refocuses attention from state-level features to the dynamic role that individual heads of state and government play in international relations, especially in authoritarian regimes. The burgeoning text-as-data field can be used to deepen our understanding of the nuances of leader survival and political choices; for example, language can serve as a leading indicator of leader approval, which itself is a good predictor of leader survival. In this paper, we apply computational linguistics tools to an authoritarian leader corpus consisting of 102 speeches from nine leaders of countries across the Middle East and North Africa between 2009 and 2012. We find systematic differences in the language of these leaders, which help advance a more broadly applicable theory of authoritarian leader language and tenure.     

The survival of interest groups: evidence from Germany

Abstract

Interest groups are important intermediary organisations that function as a transmission belt between societal interests and political decision-makers. However, while some interest groups survive over decades, others only last a few years. This article argues that the survival of interest groups depends on their ability to mobilise resources which is crucially affected by interest group type and the public salience of an interest group’s policy domain. The theoretical expectations are tested based on a novel dataset mapping the survival of 1699 interest groups registered at the German Bundestag between 1974 and 2012. Using event history analysis, it is shown that interest group type and public salience indeed affect whether interest groups survive. Sectional groups last significantly longer than cause groups, and interest group survival increases with the public salience of their policy area. The results have major implications for our understanding of interest groups and political representation in contemporary democracies.     

Long-term monarchical survival in the Middle East: a configurational comparison, 1945–2012

The survival of eight monarchies during the “Arab Uprisings” has put centre stage the fundamental question about the durability of this subtype of authoritarian regime. Seen from a broader historical perspective, however, the idea that monarchies have an inherent advantage in retaining power is less evident: a number of authoritarian monarchies broke down and subsequently became republics (Egypt 1952, Iraq 1958, North Yemen 1962, Libya 1969, Iran 1979), while others survived (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). To account for these divergent long-term pathways we systematically compare the 13 current and former Middle East monarchies. Using a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we concentrate on five central explanatory factors derived from previous research – namely, external support, rent revenues, family participation, the monarch's claim to legitimate rule, and hard repression. Our findings highlight the existence of three broad pathways to monarchical survival – linchpin monarchies, like Jordan and Morocco, versus the dynastic Gulf monarchies – and also reveal a possible hybrid third pathway, one which shares linchpin characteristics, but relates to cases on the Arabian Peninsula (Oman and the historical Imamate in North Yemen).     

The enhancement effect of social and employment integration on the delay of recidivism of released offenders trained with the R & R programme

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the extent to which social and employment integration enhances the efficacy of social–cognitive training carried out in prison through a Spanish adaptation of the Reasoning & Rehabilitation (R & R) programme. A quasi-experimental design was used to compare a group of inmates who received only social–cognitive training with a group of inmates who also received social and employment integration and with a comparison group who received neither of these interventions. The total sample was composed of 117 repeat offenders, serving sentence for property offences, drug dealing and offences against the person. The results obtained through a Kaplan–Meier survival analysis after a 6-year follow-up indicate that both intervention groups are significantly different from the comparison group. The group that received social and employment integration had the highest level of delayed recidivism, but the difference with the group that only received social–cognitive training was not statistically significant. The results are discussed in relation to the Good Lives Model and to the Risk–Needs–Responsivity Model of offender rehabilitation.     

The Strategic Timing behind Position-taking in the US Congress: A Study of the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act

Roll call voting by members of the US Congress has been frequently studied. In contrast, the various decisions leading up to roll call voting are relatively unexplored. This article analyses one of those decisions: when senators announce their final passage vote intention. The authors use the same set of variables to analyse both the timing of the announcement and the final passage vote. They find that different independent variables predict these two different decisions, though the constituency and the senator's institutional setting matter in both. Furthermore, this study corroborates an assumption in the rational choice literature that those members with the most information are the first movers.     

社会法起源新论——生存的社会维护和社会立法进程视角

人类生存的维护形式,经历了原始社会集体维护,到特殊关系（家族、身份、家庭）内部维护和个体维护,最终在工业化和城市化面前完全崩溃。在完全的私有制和极端的贪欲下,生存所依赖的相关资源配置发生严重的不平衡,权力、财富、报酬分配过多地向社会强者聚集,社会弱者生存资源单一且微薄,生存与发展问题十分严重。当国家和社会把维护人类生存与发展的义务背负起来,形成生存的社会维护,并使再次分配成为生存的基本资源一部分时,社会立法回应了这一新状况,西方国家的社会法就是在此中产生并得以发展。     

生态生存理念是生态文明建设的根本理念

生态危机只是加强生态文明建设的现实前提,树立生态生存理念,转变人们的生存方式,才是生态文明建设的根本理念。生态的基本含义是指一切生物的生存状态,生态生存是人的根本存在状态。生态生存理念是人类生存的根本理念。它包括生态存在的理念、生态生活的理念、生态生产的理念和生态消费的理念。生态生存理念的实践逻辑展开,是目的、手段与结果的有机统一。这就要求,必须以生态生存理念规范实践的目的：必须以生态生存理余规范经济手段：必须以生态生存理念的实践结果作为检验实践行为的标准．     

Political survival and the Yasukuni controversy in Sino-Japanese relations

Abstract

This article presents a reinterpretation of Japan's responses toward China's pressure over the Yasukuni issue. It is generally taken for granted that Japan's official responses to China's pressure over the issue are determined by the personality of individual leaders, the emergence of Japanese conservative nationalism and the calculations of Japan's national interests with regard to China's strategic role. With the examination of two cases during the Koizumi and Abe administrations between 2001 and 2007, this paper offers an alternative interpretation by highlighting the rationality of individual political actors and the primacy of domestic political survival. The article suggests domestic political legitimacy of individual leaders is a vital factor that affects Japan's official responses to China's pressure over the Yasukuni issue.     

云南边疆民族地区毒品犯罪透视

云南边疆民族地区毒品犯罪猖獗，农民（包括少数民族）是贩毒的高发群体。这除了跟特殊的地缘位置有紧密联系之外，还与他们自身的弱势地位有关。各种能力的弱势和地理、文化的边缘性在一定程度上推动他们参与贩毒，从而在贩毒方面表现为多体能型、马仔型的特点。要想遏制毒品犯罪，就必须加强边疆地区经济的快速发展，为弱势群体赋权，加强其各方面能力建设。