Structural change versus turnpike optimality: A Polish perspective

Using a modified dynamic IO model for Poland which allows taking into account actual trends observed in recently available statistical data we compare the rate of economic growth calculated for different growth paths resulting from the model. The goal of the research was to examine the distance between the actual structure of production and the structure on the turnpike and its impact on the economic growth of the economy under study. The results of the study indicate that the impact of structural change on output takes place in three general stages. The benefits of structural change do not outbalance the corresponding costs immediately, since it takes several periods until the growth rate of those paths which are closer to the von Neumann ray become larger than the corresponding growth rate of the benchmark growth path.     

Arguing deep ideational change

ABSTRACT

How do actors come to contest previously uncontested background ideas? This is a difficult question to ask. On the one hand, deep backgrounds seem to be too foundational for actors to transform. Their political efficacy appears to end where ideas constitute their efficacy in the first place. On the other hand, ideas must not be reified. Even deeply taken-for-granted ideas do not always stay the same, and agents have a lot to do with these changes. In order to answer this question, we draw from social theory and rhetorical studies. We conceptualize the deep background as nomos, and the more easily accessible background as endoxa. We then proceed to identify three sets of conditions that make nomic change possible. These relate to opportunity, message, and messenger. Nomic change becomes possible when the need for something new has become widely established and a supply of new nomic ideas is easily available (opportunity); new nomic ideas are ‘smuggled’ into more orthodox and widely resonating arguments (message) as well as rhetorical encounters in which these arguments are made; and advocates are widely recognized as interlocutors (messenger). A plausibility probe of nomic contestation about nuclear governance provides evidence for this framework.     

Indicators for economic vulnerability to drought in South Africa

This article identifies and estimates economic drought vulnerability indicators among communal farmers in South Africa, using an economic vulnerability index based on a household survey of 121 communal farmers. The results show that lack of resources, unemployment, price sensitivity, market access, the level of farm debt, output, on- and off-farm diversification, management, and financial safety nets were the main economic vulnerability variables. Farm debt and financial safety provide the bulk of the vulnerability index. The study’s findings suggest that government should reconsider priorities in the implementation of appropriate policy measures in response to drought.     

Changing arenas for agricultural climate change adaptation in Vietnam

Great changes are underway in how climate and agricultural risks are managed in Vietnam. Uncertainties are emerging regarding the role of the state in managing these risks and what this implies for assumptions regarding hoped-for climate change transformations. Local government control is waning in relation to the expanding roles of the private sector and the growing autonomy of farmers themselves. This article presents cases that illustrate the ways that farmers, private investors, and local authorities are responding to climate risk within roles relating to the other risks involving markets, food security, and pressures on common property resources.     

Translocal family reproduction and agrarian change in China: a new analytical framework

ABSTRACT

This paper advances a new framework for analysing agrarian change in rural China and elsewhere in developing Asia, which centres on translocal family reproduction. The framework highlights the crucial connections between rural families’ translocal strategies for meeting reproductive (especially care) needs, their changing aspirations for reproduction, and other aspects of agrarian change, including de-peasantisation, de-agrarianisation and social differentiation. In developing this framework, the paper refers to a village case study in central China and draws on a critique of the ‘livelihoods perspective’ on agrarian change, approaches focusing on ‘global householding’, and the cultural reproduction of class and gender.     

Soft budgets and elastic debt: farm liabilities in the agrarian political economy of post-Soviet Tajikistan

ABSTRACT

Since Tajikistan’s independence, market reforms and pressure from international donors have brought changes to the state’s role in the economy. The official narrative holds that the post-socialist state reduced its control over agriculture, but there are still various mechanisms through which it exerts control over farming. In this paper, I examine Tajikistan’s post-socialist agrarian change through the prism of farm debt. Farm debt used to be an accounting nuisance in Soviet agriculture as a result of so-called soft-budget constraints. In the political economy of post-socialist transformation, farm cotton debt has been transformed into indebted land. I classify this debt ‘elastic’ for its ambiguous nature. It ties farmers to land and makes farmers’ independence illusory. With an in-depth analysis based on original ethnographic insights, I aim to provide a theoretical contribution to the way in which debt is conceptualised and politicised in post-Soviet Tajikistan.     

How Public Officials Gain Policy Influence—Lessons from Local Government in Sweden

That public officials influence public policy is generally agreed upon, but the issue of how individual officials gain this influence is less developed in the literature. Here, the stories and experiences of 10 officials, active in local environmental governing in Sweden, are used to identify, describe, and discuss key strategies for gaining policy influence. The result shows the importance of accessing key politicians; avoiding isolation within the administration; developing long-term strategies; and being skilled in communication, networking, and generating external resources. The way these officials act and think challenges some well-established theoretical notions and adds empirical insights to the democratic dilemma of bureaucratic power.     

以科技侦查推动侦查模式的根本变革

现代社会,犯罪数量持续高发,犯罪类型不断衍生,犯罪手段不断升级,犯罪活动方式不断变化,给侦查工作带来了许多新的挑战。如果仍然以“人证为主”的侦查模式作为侦查工作的主导模式,必然导致侦查成本成倍增加,破案率大幅下降。侦查模式由“人证”向“物证”的转变势在必行。在实现刑事侦查模式的转化中,现代科学技术在实现现代“物证”的司法证明中发挥了巨大的作用。科学技术能客观、及时地提供科学证据,在未来的司法活动中将大显身手。     

Earth Day and Its Precursors: Continuity and Change in the Evolution of Midtwentieth‐Century U.S. Environmental Policy

Earth Day 1970's legacy overshadows two earlier events resulting in popular misconceptions about U.S. environmental politics: that environmental policy began with Earth Day and that Congress and the president were not concerned with the environment until public opinion and interest groups pressured them. These misconceptions increase public opinion ambivalence and frustrate environmental leaders. This paper describes Earth Day 1970, the congressionally established Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission established in 1958, and President Kennedy's Natural Resources Tour of September 1963, arguing the latter two prepared for the convergence of multiple streams of policy change that resulted in the first Earth Day.     

气候变化与美国国家安全:美国官方的认知及其影响

气候变化的影响超越它本身所带来的直接环境后果,对美国国家安全提出新挑战。美国官方对这一问题的认知从形成到发展,大体经历了酝酿、萌芽和完善阶段。促成美国对该问题的战略认知与政策实践的原因复杂,涉及国际社会的政治议程、美国国内的科学议程以及国会的影响等因素。当前,美国的安全体系不仅正视气候变化对美国国家安全产生的威胁,而且已经开始制定战略性方针不断将气候变化因素纳入该体系的战略规划和日常实践。在国际层面,美国已经开始谋求与其他国家就气候变化影响国家安全与国际安全的问题达成共识甚至采取行动。本质上,这是美国在全球气候谈判博弈中增加筹码的一个重要抓手,希望以此来影响和主导全球减缓气候变化行动。预计未来美国应对气候变化安全后果的政策走势趋强,将对美国气候政策、对外关系乃至国际格局产生重要影响,同时将给中国特别是中国与发展中国家的合作关系带来挑战。