Inevitable recidivism--the origin and centrality of an urban legend

This paper examines the pervasive conviction that sex offenders - particularly child molesters - will continue to re-offend. This belief in inevitable recidivism turns out to be absolutely essential to both the justification for, and the structure of, the sexually violent predator laws. When actual evidence of sex offender recidivism is examined, however, a huge gap exists between what is assumed and what the data actually show because most sex offenders do not in fact re-offend. Thus there is a galaxy of sexually violent predator laws and an entire branch of Supreme Court jurisprudence that is founded upon a demonstrable urban legend.     

Interpersonal Relationships and Stalking: Identifying When to Intervene

One of the issues arising out of the introduction of stalking legislation is how to distinguish between the kinds of courting behaviours, reconciliations, termination of relationships and other social interactions that are within the ‘normal range’ and those behaviours that are perceived by the wider community as stalking. This study examined the impact of intent, persistence, perspective and gender on perceptions of behaviours following the dissolution of a relationship. Responses of 868 community members indicated that behaviour was only perceived as illegal when explicit evidence of intent was present rather than when it was absent. Ratings for foreseeability of arousing fear were higher when explicit evidence of intent was present rather than absent and when behaviour constituted a repeated rather than single episode. Participants were more likely to determine that the behaviour of the actor would be repeated when the scenario depicted a repeat episode rather than a single episode. Suggested target responses differed according to whether or not the scenario depicted explicit evidence of intent to arouse fear. Results are discussed in relation to previous studies on community perceptions of stalking as well as the capacity of the research to inform interpretations of stalking legislation.     

Performance of the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) in China: Achievements and Challenges as Seen by the Chinese

This paper discusses the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and its achievements and challenges in China, the country obtaining most GEF support. This paper relies on Chinese perceptions, and less on views from the implementing agencies (IAs), the World Bank, UNDP and UNEP. Most attention is given to climate change and biodiversity. The paper asks what has been achieved; how effective has the GEF been? The study concludes that GEF funding has been important for China’s environmental problems. GEF and its IAs have contributed to raised awareness and technology development and have boosted institutional capacity through participation in project activities and training. The main emphasis has been placed on climate change projects and less on biodiversity. Much has been achieved by the GEF in China, but challenges exist. At the international level, the interests and roles of the GEF system, its IAs and recipient countries are not always compatible. GEF projects may suffer as a consequence. Another challenge relates to the seeming difference in effectiveness between World Bank projects and projects of the other IAs. Domestic challenges concern turf battles, problems related to information sharing, and different priorities among actors. The various government institutions’ reluctance to co-operate impacts significantly on the performance of GEF projects in China. The IAs should insist on smoother collaboration, and force the institutions to work together. Moreover, severe problems are apparent regarding financing as well as application procedures. Improvements are under way regarding the GEF application procedures. This will have a limited impact unless the Chinese side simplifies and improves procedures.     

Economic Perceptions and Executive Approval in Comparative Perspective

Controversy exists over whether people use retrospective or prospective economic perceptions when evaluating their political leadership. In this article, I argue that the structure of the political-economic system affects which type of economic perception people employ. Specifically, in established democracies with developed economies, people will employ prospective assessments. In contrast, in nations with less well-established democratic systems and less developed economies, people will employ retrospective reasoning. They do so because under such conditions uncertainty about the future is too high for them to make reliable prospective assessments. I test this hypothesis on aggregate survey data taken from 41 nations in 2002. Support for the hypothesis is found. The conclusion puts the findings into perspective and discusses directions for future research.     

新加坡文化特质的生成机制及其启示

新加坡在建国后能够在全民中形成价值共识,实现文化产业的高速发展,原因就在于其确立了以国家精神、民族精神为核心的国家文化特质,文化特质的形成模式具有鲜明的国家特点。作为地域互为近邻、文化一脉相承的邻国,新加坡依靠理念指引、官员带动、制度保障、社会合作的文化发展模式值得中国借鉴,尤以培育国民精神为灵魂、以政德官德建设为指引、以法律法规为依归,以开放合作为动力的文化建设经验为中国的文化建设提供了有益的启示．