Do party leadership contests forecast British general elections?

When assessing election forecasts, two important criteria emerge: their accuracy (precision) and lead time (distance to event). Curiously, in both 2010 and 2015 the most accurate forecasts came from models having the longest lead time—albeit at most 12 months. Can we increase the lead time further, supposing we tolerate a small decrease in accuracy? Here, we develop a model with a lead time of more than 3 years. Our Party Leadership Model relies on the votes of MPs when selecting their party leader. We assess the forecasting quality of our model with both leave-one-out cross-validation and a before-the-fact forecast of the 2019 general election. Compared to both simple forecasting methods and other scientific forecasts, our model emerges as a leading contender. This result suggests that election forecasting may benefit from developing models with longer lead times, and that party leaders may influence election outcomes more than is usually thought.     

Membership vote for party leadership changes: Electoral effects and the causal mechanisms behind

Political parties in parliamentary democracies have increasingly democratized their leadership selection processes, incorporating the votes of party members. Despite generating numerous headlines, there has been a relative dearth of cross-national scholarly work on the electoral effects of selectorate expansion and the causal mechanisms behind them. This study fills this gap in the literature. Using observational data from eleven parliamentary democracies, we show that parties using membership selection can expect a polling boost when compared to those using more exclusive mechanisms. However, membership selection does not affect electoral performance. Nevertheless, our crossnational analyses and results from a survey experiment from Australia suggest that incorporating members generates excitement, demonstrates an openness to new ideas, and can be a signal of leader work ethic and a commitment to the democratic process, increasing leader legitimacy. We discuss the disconnect between these positive evaluations and the lack of electoral effects, and suggest possible strategies for parties to improve their electoral standing.     

How Can the European Union Contribute to a COP-6 Agreement? An Overview for Policy Makers

During the 6th Conference of Parties (COP-6) in The Hague, the Netherlands, November 2000, crucial progress on a number of outstanding issues related to the Kyoto Protocol will have to be made to open the way for its early ratification, if not to save it from complete failure. Given the present lack of internal US political support for the Kyoto Protocol, the EU may play a pivotal role in making the Kyoto Protocol agreement a reality even without initial ratification of the US, if its able to provide sufficient leadership. In this overview article we discuss the main issues under negotiation, the problems of finding agreement and opportunities for the EU to catalyse a compromise agreement at COP-6, building on key scientific papers as included in this issue and discussions at the European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment Climate Policy Workshop in Amsterdam. Key elements are the inclusion of sinks, the use of the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms as a supplement to domestic action and the international compliance system. Domestic implementation of climate policy is a major factor for the EU's credibility.     

增强干部素质提高领导能力——学习胡锦涛总书记在党的十六届六中全会上的有关重要论述

胡锦涛总书记对各级领导干部提出了“政治坚定、能力突出、作风过硬、群众信任、善于领导科学发展”的新的更高要求。从这五个方面着手,就要强化政治意识、坚定政治立场,增强自身素质、提高领导水平,加强党性修养、为民务实清廉,强化宗旨意识、赢得群众拥护和支持,坚持科学发展、推进经济社会又好又快发展。     

外行领导内行?——专业型组织、专家型领导与新冠肺炎疫情防控

专业型组织或知识密集型组织的核心员工都是专业人士,如何对他们进行有效领导一直存在争议。专家型领导理论认为要内行领导内行,但干部管理制度在实际运行时通常导致外行领导内行。本文以新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情防控为案例,对地方卫生健康部门的领导干部履历进行分析,探究如何通过专家型领导来强化科学防控。对于专业型组织而言,应尽可能选派专家型领导,不应过分强调内行领导内行,专业知识和技能只是领导胜任力的维度之一。不同层级和部门的领导干部需要具备不同的能力组合,可以通过加强轮岗和培训来提升他们的全面领导能力。     

党领导人民改善民生是道路自信的实质内容和价值追求

中国特色社会主义道路自信的内涵主要包括对发展道路已有成果的充分肯定,对目前发展道路延续性的清晰认知,对未来发展道路的充分信心。道路自信是不断推进民生建设的现实需要和思想保障,给民生建设提供和平的发展环境、不断补齐民生发展短板的艰巨任务,都需要坚定道路自信。从中国道路已有发展成果看,道路自信的根本依据是广大人民群众的支持和拥护,道路自信来源于对我国民生问题的科学把握,来源于深厚的群众基础,来源于给中国人民带来的巨大发展成就。从中国道路发展延续性看,道路自信的实质内容是不断满足人民群众的美好生活需要,为此,要坚持新发展理念,用发展的办法解决发展中的问题;要解决好发展不平衡不充分的问题,不断满足不同阶层的多层次的民生需求。从中国道路未来发展看,道路自信的价值追求是不断增强人民群众的获得感幸福感安全感。要实现好维护好发展好最广大人民的根本利益,把实现全体人民共同富裕作为基本着眼点,把实现人民幸福安康作为根本目的和归宿。     

The Impact of Political Change on the State of Academia Including Academic Freedom in the Arab World: Libya as a Case Study

ABSTRACT

Furthering Western style academic freedom has been challenging, as Arab countries, especially Libya, have known only autocratic regimes throughout their modern existence. Amidst its current political and social upheaval, Libyan society is drifting towards the unknown. The problem addressed in this study is the impact of political change on the state of academia but, more specifically, academic freedom. Since the intervention in Libya by NATO states, many academics have lost their jobs. Some have become refugees outside of Libya as a direct result of the appropriation of most of the governmental posts in the country by religious and political radicals. The research questions reflect ways in which the new inserted de facto leaders of post-transitional Libya have impacted life on Libyan campuses and academic freedom.     

基层党建引领社区治理的实践进路与制度变迁

加强和创新社区治理是新时代的重要命题。党建引领社区治理存在着对社区党员人文关怀不足、基层党建与居民自治脱节、党建引领共驻共建单向性、基层党组织权责不匹配等问题。党建引领社区治理机制创新,在需求、技术、文化素质、激励机制和资源五大方面构建党建创新制度。要以增强党的组织力为核心,以社区组织间、党员和居民间关系的调适为基础,以邻里互助、居民自治、共驻共建为重点,以构建社区复合治理为目标,实现社区党建与社区治理的有效衔接,推动社区复合治理模式的生成。     

社区党建与社区治理深度融合路径探究

城乡社区党组织是我们党在城乡社区全部工作和战斗力的基础,社区治理现代化是国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要环节。这次突发的新冠肺炎疫情对社区治理体系和治理能力是一次全方位的挑战和考验。文章认为要积极探索推动社区党建与社区治理深度融合的科学路径,实现二者的有效衔接与良性互动,把党的领导落实到城乡社区治理全过程,以此加强和创新城乡社区治理,推动社区治理体系和治理能力的现代化。     

经济全球化背景下的民族复兴与中国共产党

由产生的特殊性及成长环境所决定,对中国共产党政治功能及历史地位的考察必须具有民族的视野和视角。实现民族复兴与共产党的根本宗旨是一致的,共产党要成为中华民族的先锋队,取决于是否能够在现代历史条件下比其他政治集团更好地解决民族的生存和发展难题。时代的发展对共产党领导中华民族复兴提出了更高要求,如何正确处理经济全球化对民族复兴的挑战,是中国共产党在21世纪巩固和发展领导地位的关键所在。