The United Kingdom 2017 election: polarisation in a split issue space

Abstract

After decades in which party competition was fought in the centre ground, the 2017 UK General Election witnessed a return to more conflictual politics. This article assesses public support for the electoral strategies of the main parties and examines the extent to which the issues the parties campaigned on resonated with their own supporters, as well as with the wider public. Drawing on the issue-yield framework, the article shows that the Conservative campaign – generally considered to be badly run – did not focus on issues that would fully exploit the opportunities for expanding support that were open to the party. Labour, by contrast, played a much better hand. While taking a clear left-wing stance on many policies that were popular with its constituency, the party also skilfully emphasised valence issues that Labour is often seen as more credible on, such as healthcare and education.     

Regionalizing Multilateralism: Estimating the Power of Potential Regional Voting Blocs in the IMF

This paper explores the voting power of hypothetical regional voting blocs in the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund. We first discuss the prospect of regionally defined groups becoming more significant in the Fund’s decision-making process. After briefly outlining the IMF’s formal decision procedures, including its weighted voting system, use of special majorities, and the function of voting groups in the Fund’s Executive Board we define three indices of a priori voting power — the Banzhaf, Johnston, and Shapley-Shubik indices — which are then applied to existing voting groups. Following this we simulate several regionally defined a priori coalitions and their potential to influence outcomes in passing resolutions in the Fund using a simple majority. The coalitions we specify are based on the assumption that members of the IMF will form into voting blocs based on regionally-defined preferences. The procedures employed use existing voting weights to project the relative strengths of alternative regional blocs that could emerge within the IMF. Our results indicate that the United States would have the greatest voting power in almost all scenarios. A voting bloc comprised of European countries, however, would be able to dominate the United States unless the U.S. formed an Asia-Pacific bloc. Japan, the PRC, and other Asian countries appear to be unable to form voting blocs that would provide them with more voting power than the United States.     

A review of recent advances in impurity profiling of illicit MDMA samples

Profiling illicit ecstasy tablets has the potential to become an invaluable tool in the crackdown on drug trafficking, but that potential has yet to be fully realized. The impurity profile of an ecstasy tablet can be used to determine the method employed to synthesize the actual controlled substance, which in most cases, is 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA). Tablets can then be linked to a common synthetic route, potentially to a common manufacturer, and possibly even to a common manufacturing batch, based on the impurities present. Current methods for profiling MDMA tablets typically involve extracting the organic impurities for analysis by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The potential of profiling the trace metals present in tablets has begun to be investigated while more robust statistical and chemometric procedures are being applied to compare and link tablets. This article reviews the recent advances in MDMA impurity profiling from 2002 up to the end of 2006.     

Advanced Framework for Digital Forensic Technologies and Procedures*

Abstract: Recent trends in global networks are leading toward service‐oriented architectures and sensor networks. On one hand of the spectrum, this means deployment of services from numerous providers to form new service composites, and on the other hand this means emergence of Internet of things. Both these kinds belong to a plethora of realms and can be deployed in many ways, which will pose serious problems in cases of abuse. Consequently, both trends increase the need for new approaches to digital forensics that would furnish admissible evidence for litigation. Because technology alone is clearly not sufficient, it has to be adequately supported by appropriate investigative procedures, which have yet become a subject of an international consensus. This paper therefore provides appropriate a holistic framework to foster an internationally agreed upon approach in digital forensics along with necessary improvements. It is based on a top‐down approach, starting with legal, continuing with organizational, and ending with technical issues. More precisely, the paper presents a new architectural technological solution that addresses the core forensic principles at its roots. It deploys so‐called leveled message authentication codes and digital signatures to provide data integrity in a way that significantly eases forensic investigations into attacked systems in their operational state. Further, using a top‐down approach a conceptual framework for forensics readiness is given, which provides levels of abstraction and procedural guides embellished with a process model that allow investigators perform routine investigations, without becoming overwhelmed by low‐level details. As low‐level details should not be left out, the framework is further evaluated to include these details to allow organizations to configure their systems for proactive collection and preservation of potential digital evidence in a structured manner. The main reason behind this approach is to stimulate efforts on an internationally agreed “template legislation,” similarly to model law in the area of electronic commerce, which would enable harmonized national implementations in the area of digital forensics.     

我国合议庭评议表决制度功能缺失之省思

合议庭评议表决制度具有充分发挥集体智慧、形成评议结论的功能。为发挥这些功能,采行合议制的国家一般都确立了全体参与,秘密评议;地位平等,独立表决;多数决定,异议保留等原则。我国合议庭评议表决制度在体现这些原则的具体规则的确立与实施方面有所欠缺,导致功能缺失,应当从其自身制度与相关工作制度的并行调整两方面着手进行改革,才会具有实效性。     

Yea or Nay: Do Legislators Benefit by Voting Against Their Party?

This article asks whether legislators are able to reap electoral benefits from opposing their party on one or more high‐profile issues. Using data from a national survey in which citizens are asked their own positions on seven high‐profile issues voted on by the U.S. Senate, as well as how they believe their state's two senators have voted on these issues, I find that senators generally do not benefit from voting against their party. Specifically, when a senator deviates from her party, the vast majority of out‐partisans nonetheless persist in believing that the senator voted with her party anyhow; and while the small minority of out‐partisans who are aware of her deviation are indeed more likely to approve of and vote for such a senator, there are simply too few of these correctly informed citizens for it to make a meaningful difference for the senator's overall support.     

Comparison of Different Swabs for Sampling Inorganic Gunshot Residue from Gunshot Wounds: Applicability and Reliability for the Determination of Firing Distance

This study concentrates on samples of bare pork skin, with and without bristles, and dried bovine ribs shot with a semi‐automatic pistol to find the best methodology and sampling surface in the search for inorganic gunshot residues (IGSR). Four quadrants of known surface areas were sampled at different distances from the bullet's hole with different swabs: tapes in graphite, Leukosilk® white tape, 3M® transparent tape, and a cotton swab to assess the technique able to collect the highest amounts of IGSR with the lowest contribution of the blank. The cotton swab wet in 10% HNO₃ gave the best results. The highest amounts of IGSR, measured by ICP‐OES and MS, were detected on a surface of 3‐cm radius from the bullet's edge. The amount of metals collected decreased with the firing distance between 20 and 60 cm. The procedure was efficient for sampling different tissues like skin and bones.     

公证债权文书执行审查程序与破产债权确认之诉的交错与区隔 ——以重庆莱卡斯贸易有限公司破产债权确认纠纷案为视角

具有强制执行效力的公证书确认的债权进入执行程序后,债务人进入破产清算的,围绕债权产生的争议,在规范层面上,存在着公证债权文书执行审查程序与破产债权确认之诉这两种不同的争议解决程序,然而这两种程序性质迥异,相互排斥、无法并行。为协调两种程序之间的关系,应当以裁定受理破产申请与裁定中止执行这两个时间节点为界,对这两种程序的适用范围进行区隔,分别确定两个程序的不同规制范围。     

Political corruption,economy, and citizens' evaluation of democracy in South Korea

South Korean politics has been haunted by numerous corruption scandals as well as the prosecution of politicians and their cronies for their corruption. Yet despite the prevalence and salience of political corruption, many citizens of South Korea tend to overlook the problem by continuing to support corrupt politicians and administrations. This study defines under what circumstances political corruption shapes citizens' judgment of government and the political system as a whole in South Korea. The results indicate that national economic conditions as a perceptual screen mediate the effect of political corruption on the evaluation of democratic governance.     

Suggestive Eyewitness Identification Procedures and the Supreme Court’s Reliability Test in Light of Eyewitness Science: 30 Years Later

The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling concerning suggestive eyewitness identification procedures (Manson v. Braithwaite, 1977, 432 U.S. 98) has not been revisited by the Court in the intervening 30+ years. Meanwhile, scientific studies of eyewitnesses have progressed and DNA exonerations show that mistaken identification is the primary cause of convictions of the innocent. We analyzed the two-inquiry logic in Manson in light of eyewitness science. Several problems are discussed. Ironically, we note that suggestive identification procedures (determined in the first inquiry) boost the eyewitnesses’ standing on three of the five criteria (used in the second inquiry) that are used to decide whether the suggestive procedures were a problem. The net effect undermines safeguards intended by the Court and destroys incentives to avoid suggestive procedures.