When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out

Ostensibly random and trivial experiences of everyday life, e.g., local weather, can have significant political consequences. First, we present a comprehensive meta-analysis of 34 studies of electoral turnout and rainfall – the vast majority demonstrating a negative association. Secondly, we present a new analysis of a voter panel with validated turnout for a complete electorate merged with fine-grained meteorological observations to show that Election Day rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout. Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather. Thus, bad weather exacerbates unequal democratic participation by pushing low-propensity voters to abstain. Efforts to include marginal voters therefore ought to be intensified during poor weather, and elections could even be moved to seasons with more pleasant weather to improve participatory equality.     

网络犯罪中的电子证据若干问题研究

网络犯罪的不断涌现使电子证据的研究面临越来越多的挑战。电子证据的概念应该从广义上理解,并赋予其独立的法律地位。电子证据的收集主体、程序规则的运用以及人权保障,都是需要着重研究、探讨的问题。     

国际条约在不服渔业行政处罚所提起的行政诉讼程序上的优先适用

为了回答由一则不服中国渔业行政处罚而提起行政诉讼的案例提出的中国领域外形成的证据是否应当经过公证认证的问题,有必要审视在中国法律框架内国际条约优先适用的制度。国际条约优先适用的原则不仅适用于中国实体法领域,而且在民事或行政诉讼法的领域同样适用。作为下位法的行政诉讼证据规则应当让位于国际条约的规定。中美谅解备忘录就是这样的双边国际条约,考量涉案美方案卷能否成为行政诉讼证据,应当根据该备忘录的规定。经过中美执法部门证据交接美方案卷成为中方执法证据之一,符合备忘录的要求,具有证据上的可采性,应当被依法采信为行政诉讼证据。     

行政协作法律机制研究

加强行政机关间的配合协作,是积极避免权限冲突,充分发挥行政整体优势的有效措施。实践中的行政协作带有较强的行政色彩,依赖于各职能部门的主动配合,缺乏法律规制,效果不佳。在行政管理体制改革中,应通过立法规范行政协作行为,将行政协作纳入法制化轨道,以构建和谐行政,建设法治政府。     

公诉案件庭前审查程序重构之法理探析及初步设想

我国修改前后的两部刑事诉讼法,虽然均在公诉案件第一审程序中对庭前审查程序作出规定,但由于立法时对庭前审查程序的功能认识不够清晰,相关规定过于简单和粗疏。因此,有必要对庭前审查程序的改革问题加以深刻思考。鉴于目前对于庭前审查程序的研究多局限在具体实施问题的层面,在评析各家之说的基础上,对庭前审查程序重新进行定位,对其价值取向、理论原则等问题展开初步论证。最后提出重构我国公诉案件庭前审查程序的若干设想。     

检察机关适用刑事和解的程序问题研究

刑事和解已经成为我国各地检察机关广为实践探索的刑事司法改革措施,但由于缺少法律依据,程序适用上的不协调问题比较严重。本文对检察机关在审查起诉、呈捕以及审判阶段如何适用刑事和解的程序问题进行了研究,并探完了如何防止刑事和解中滥用检察权的途径,以促进相关立法的完善以及刑事司法改革的顺利开展。     

Austerity and niche parties: The electoral consequences of fiscal reforms

Austerity policies — policies of sharp reductions of a government's budget deficint involving spending cuts and tax increases — are claimed to boost support for radical political parties. We argue, counter to popular claims, that austerity measures actually reduce support for radical and niche parties. Austerity policies force traditional left-right politics to the forefront of political debate with the traditional mainstream parties having a stronger ownership over those issues. We systematically explore the impact of austerity measures on the electoral fortunes of niche parties in 16 developed countries over a 35-year period, while controlling for a number of socio-economic variables. We find that austerity policies that rely on tax increases affect radical parties on the left and the right in different ways than fiscal adjustments based on spending cuts.     

Issue cross-pressures and time of voting decision

Undecided voters are often regarded by political parties and candidates as the group that determines the outcome of an election. This paper discusses the concept and measurement of issue cross-pressures and explores to what extent they influence the time of voting decision in different political systems. Using survey data from national election studies in the Netherlands (1994–2012), Germany (1994–2013) and the United Kingdom (1992–2010), this study finds that issue cross-pressures do influence the time of voting decision regardless of voters' personal consideration set size, demographic background and political attribute. The effect of issue cross-pressures in the Netherlands is most pronounced. In the United Kingdom it is more moderate, while it is least prevalent in Germany. This partially demonstrates that party systems may constrain the role of issue cross-pressures.     

First-time boost beats experience: The effect of past eligibility on turnout

Recent findings from the US indicate a clear positive causal effect of past eligibility on voting in subsequent elections. Based on individual-level register data from four elections held in Denmark and Finland, we find that past eligibility either decreases voting propensity or has a zero effect among young voters. The hype associated with the first elections thus appears to cancel out the habit among young adults in countries where the institutional barriers against voting are weak. Moreover, differences across the types of elections can be noted. The negative effect of past eligibility is strongest in elections characterized by low saliency, implying that high-salient elections mobilize all voters equally and therefore narrow the gap between first and second-time eligible voters.     

Electoral effects of candidate valence

Ideological proximity is not the sole determinant of electoral choices. Voters frequently select candidates whose policy profiles do not exhibit the closest match with their own policy preferences. Instead, non-spatial factors can govern the vote. The empirical literature has struggled to assess the effect of candidate valence on electoral outcomes due to the challenge of estimating a comprehensive indicator of candidate valence. This paper investigates the effect of non-spatial factors on candidates’ electoral results by estimating candidate valences from a vote advice application. A conservative estimate based on an analysis of the two-tiered German federal election system suggests a surplus of several percentage points for high-valence candidates over low-valence competitors – even for competitors from minor parties.