The abiding voter: The lengthy horizon of retrospective evaluations

Although the theory of retrospective voting receives wide support in the literature on voting behaviour, less agreement exists on voters’ time horizon when assessing the government's performance – that is, whether voters are myopic. Previous studies on voter myopia tend to focus on aggregate-level measures of the economy, or use an experimental approach. Using panel data, this article offers the first investigation into voter myopia that uses individual-level evaluations of government performance in a representative survey at several points during the electoral cycle. The study focuses on The Netherlands, but it also provide tests of the generalisability and robustness of the findings, and a replication in the American context. The results indicate that voter satisfaction early in the government's term adds to explaining incumbent voting. Thus, rather than the myopic voter, evidence is found of the abiding voter – steady at her or his post, evaluating government performance over a long length of time.     

TR versus PR: Effects of the French double ballot

This paper presents a natural experiment, comparing the effects of two-round (TR) and proportional representation (PR) voting rules in French cantonal and regional elections. A series of rigorous model estimations demonstrates that the two electoral types clearly produce distinct outcomes. TR systems bring about less extremist party voting, less party competition, and perhaps less vote turnout, when compared to PR systems. These findings call into question the lack of attention to TR effects, and the notion that TR is not really a distinct electoral form.     

A dynamic analysis of partisan voting: The issue salience effect of unemployment in South Korea

This paper examines the electoral effects of the salience of unemployment issue. While increasing employment volatility has spawned exciting research, evidence of how unemployment affects vote choice is inconclusive. I refine partisan voting theory by focusing on issue salience of unemployment and the dynamics of voter choice. Voters are more likely to make a transition to support left parties when they identify unemployment as the most important and salient issue. The study also examines voter heterogeneity in the link between issue salience and the propensity for transition to the left. The effect of issue salience of unemployment is more pronounced among lower income groups than their counterparts. Analysis of a transition model using the 1997 and 2002 Korean presidential election surveys finds evidence supporting my arguments.     

论党内法规实施后评估程序之构建

党内法规实施后评估程序是党内法规实施后评估的程序依据所在,但党内法规实施后评估程序尚缺乏明确的规范依据,尚未实现规范化、制度化。为此,我们应借鉴立法后评估程序,并结合党内法规实施后评估的自身特点,以合规性原则、民主参与原则、公开原则、科学性原则为指引,具体构建党内法规实施后评估程序,包括评估对象、评估主体、评估方案的选择和确定,评估工作启动时间的科学界定,评估信息的搜集与研判,评估报告的形成、公布以及运用等环节,为党内法规实施后评估工作的开展提供程序保障。     

我国土地征收基本问题特殊性研究——以为公共利益而征收土地为中心

我国土地征收的本质是资源的再分配,其动因并不限于公共利益,这就决定了其在逻辑起点上不同于土地私有制下的土地征收。我国土地征收基本问题的特殊性表现在公共利益、土地征收补偿和土地征收程序的特殊性。这一特殊性决定了我国土地征收制度的设计只有契合本土实际方能得以有效运作。     

The antecedents of voter loyalty and the mediation role of party attachment: A case study from Turkey

The primary objective of the present study is to identify the antecedents of voter loyalty, with a particular focus on the mediating role of party attachment in the relationship between inner-self, social-self, trust, and loyalty. Using a convenience sampling method, the data for this study were gathered from a sample of 750 voters residing in a developing European country, Turkey. The collected data were analyzed using confirmatory factor analyses and structural equation modeling. The results of the study demonstrate that significant and positive relationships exist between the aforementioned antecedents (i.e., inner-self, social-self, trust, and party attachment) and voter loyalty. Additionally, the findings suggest that party attachment acts as a mediator between the antecedents and loyalty. Drawing on these results and the existing literature on voter behavior and practice, the authors discuss methodological, theoretical, and practical implications for inner-self, social-self, trust, and party attachment.     

Going Postal: How All-Mail Elections Influence Turnout

We examine the question of whether or not reducing the costs of voting by conducting elections entirely through the mail rather than at the traditional polling place increases participation. Using election data from Oregon, we examine whether or not elections conducted through the mail increase turnout in both local and statewide elections. Using precinct-level data merged with census data we also examine how postal voting may alter the composition of the electorate. We find that, while all-mail elections tend to produce higher turnout, the most significant increases occur in low stimulus elections, such as local elections or primaries where turnout is usually low. The increase in turnout, however, is not uniform across demographic groups. Voting only by mail is likely to increase turnout among those who are already predisposed to vote, such as those with higher socioeconomic status. Like other administrative reforms designed to make voting easier, postal voting has the potential to increase turnout. However, the expanded pool of voters will be limited most likely to those already inclined to vote but find it inconvenient to go to the polling place. This conclusion is consistent with the growing body of research that suggests that relaxing administrative requirements is not likely to be the panacea for low turnout among the disenfranchised.     

论一事不再理原则

一事不再理原则是现代刑事诉讼的一项基本原则 ,在许多国家的司法体系中确立。本文对一事不再理原则的含义及历史发展进行了简析 ,分析了该原则存在的理念基础 ,并提出了我国一事不再理原则的效力范围的构想和适用这一原则的例外 ,确保被告人的权利不受侵犯。     

我国土地征收中公共利益的厘定与处置

公共利益的需要是土地征收制度建立的合法性基础,对其研究具有重要的理论与实践意义。公共利益有不确定性特点,在公共利益的判断标准上,应当实行主观标准与客观标准相结合。我国土地征收实践中公共利益认定中存在的若干问题,我们应借鉴其他国家的土地征收相关立法,总结我国土地征收实践,有针对性地提出采取如下措施:扩大信息公开范围,建立听证、复议和复审程序、公开程序和监督程序。     

Microwards at postcode level

Much has been made of declining turnout in elections. This is due to a number of factors, and several remedies have been proposed. Voting behaviour seems to depend largely on socioeconomic factors. Partly due to the inordinate expense of household‐level statistics, however, little is known of the demographic breakdown of voting and non‐voting. An effective way of overcoming this would be to crudely estimate the demographics involved by allocating households to consistent voting groupings. Large geographic groups are unwieldy and probably not sufficiently accurate; however, postcode‐level definitions can allow similar but non‐adjacent households in the same general area to be treated as a unit for statistical purposes. This allows consistent trends in voting over the last four general elections in Scotland to be demonstrated. Copyright © 2004 Henry Stewart Publications