Strategic rebels: a spatial econometric approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

ABSTRACT

Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actor-centric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multi-actor conflicts. Based on a network game-theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.     

Oil,Natural Gas,and Intrastate Conflict: Does Ownership Matter?

The impact of natural resources on intrastate violence has been increasingly analyzed in the peace and conflict literature. Surprisingly, little quantitative evidence has been gathered on the effects of the resource-ownership structure on internal violence. This article uses a novel data set on oil and natural gas property rights, covering 40 countries during the period 1989–2010. The results of regression analyses employing logit models reveal that the curvilinear effect between hydrocarbon production and civil conflict onset—often found in previous studies—only applies to countries in which oil and gas is extracted by state-owned companies. The findings suggest that only state-controlled hydrocarbon production might entail peace-buying mechanisms such as specific clientelistic practices, patronage networks, welfare policies, and/or coercion. At the same time, it seems that greed and grievance are more pronounced whenever resources lie in the hands of the state. Exploring the within-country variation, further analyses reveal that divergent welfare spending patterns are likely to be one causal channel driving the relationship between resource ownership and internal violence.     

The Responsibility to Protect at Ten: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?

Abstract

Far from having faded away, ten years after its formal adoption, the responsibility to protect (R2P), is arguably more relevant than ever. In the current overall context of protection crises, heightened in severity by the emergence of violent extremists, R2P has changed the way in which the international community characterises situations that involve protection failures, and has raised expectations about what should occur when atrocity crimes have been committed or are imminent. UN member states now agree that prevention is at the core of R2P, that international action should employ the full range of diplomatic, political and humanitarian measures, and that military force should only be considered as a measure of last resort. While there is continued contestation about particular aspects of R2P – as there is over much older normative advancements, such as human rights – R2P has helped to forge political consensus and build new institutional capacity to prevent and respond to atrocity crimes.     

The discursive construction of intervention: selves,democratic legacies,and Responsibility to Protect in French discourse on Libya

This article analyses French executives' and lawmakers' legitimisations of the intervention in Libya with the aim of understanding the discursive construction of intervention. It investigates the arguments in favour of intervention and the oppositions they were confronted with. To these arguments belong a re-evaluated democratic legacy of France, an identification with the Libyan people, and a debate on Responsibility to Protect and the rule of law in world politics, which have a broader relevance for French actorness abroad. The article applies the Essex School discourse theory and techniques from Interpretive Policy Analysis on executive speeches and parliamentary documents for structuring the debate and for estimating the strength of ideas in their interdiscursive configuration. An ideal-typical explanation of the legitimisation of intervention and of the choice of one policy over another is made. The article argues that going to war in Libya equated to a question of cultural appropriateness.     

The Guatemalan National Revolutionary unit: the long collapse

ABSTRACT

The Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unit (URNG) fought one of the longest and bloodiest civil wars in recent Latin American history. In 1996, the URNG and the Government of Guatemala signed a Firm and Lasting Agreement ending the country’s civil war and initiating the URNG’s post-war life as a political party. After finishing third in its initial electoral competition, the URNG has since been unable to capture more than 4% of the vote, on its own or in coalition, leaving it a minor political party. What explains the poor electoral performance of the URNG as a political party? Based upon fieldwork, elite interviews, and analysis of electoral data, I argue that the URNG’s minor party performance was caused by both organizational and institutional factors.     

预防青少年违法犯罪的途径

青少年犯罪预防问题已成为一个世界性的难题。青少年犯罪的原因,既有主观因素又有客观因素,更是主、客观因素相互作用所致。预防青少年违法犯罪的主要途径应从家庭预防、学校预防、社会预防三方面努力。     

俄罗斯的反恐对策及借鉴

俄罗斯是恐怖主义犯罪的重灾区,其完备的反恐立法、全面的反恐措施、艰辛的反恐实践为世界各国提供了反恐样本。与之相比,我国要加强对恐怖主义犯罪的打击力度,尚需要制定统一的反恐法,建立完善的反恐危机管理机制,实施“堵”、“控”策略,扩大国际合作。     

我国刑事法律中真的有证明责任倒置吗?——兼论“推定”下持有型犯罪的证明责任

我国刑事法律中证明责任倒置的提法欠妥。"证明责任"本质上指结果责任的承担。我国刑法上规定的两大特别的"持有型"犯罪为推定犯罪,应符合推定与证明责任的一般原理。刑事推定不仅转移提供证据的责任,而且所提供的证据必须达到优势的程度以使法官对推定的事实产生疑问。结果意义上的证明责任始终由控方承担。不妨对应"争点形成责任"、"疑点形成责任"与"疑点排除责任"等说法来理解推定下持有型犯罪的证明责任。     

论DNA技术在打击多发性侵财犯罪中的拓展应用

目前DNA技术在侦破凶杀、强奸等重大案件中已成为常规的突破方法,但在发案率高,打防难度大的各类侵财型案件侦破中应用还较少,生物物证的提取意识也较差。近年来,英美等发达国家非常重视DNA技术在侦破多发性侵财案件中的拓展应用并取得了很好的效果。应借鉴国外的成功经验,着力消除当前实际工作中制约DNA充分发挥作用的各种不利因素,在多发性侵财案件侦破中充分利用DNA技术高个体识别力和高灵敏度的优势来提高侦破效率,使DNA技术真正成为侵财型案件新的破案增长点。     

当前经济犯罪的特点及对策

伴随着经济的高速发展,经济犯罪情况也十分突出,不仅在量上呈继续上升态势,而且在质上呈现出许多新的特点。对于经济犯罪的防范和惩治对策也应当是多层次全方位的,健全法制制度。健全市场内部管理机制、加强对经济犯罪的侦查和打击、提高公民的思想道德水平都是不可忽略的有效途径。